Archives of “Politics by country” tag

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Iran envoys says won’t rule out war

  
Analysis, Politics
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Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif refused to rule out military conflict in the Middle East after the US sent more troops and weapons to Saudi Arabia in response to an attack on oil fields the US has blamed on the Islamic Republic.

“I’m not confident that we can avoid a war,” Zarif said in an interview with CBS to be broadcast Sunday on its “Face the Nation” program.

“I’m confident that we will not start one, but I’m confident that whoever starts one will not be the one who finishes it.”

When asked to elaborate, Zarif said: “That means that there won’t be a limited war.”

Zarif was interviewed in New York, where he will attend the United Nations General Assembly session.

The US said Friday it will send a “moderate” number of troops to the Middle East and missile defence capabilities to the Saudis in response to last weekend’s attack on oil facilities.

The foreign minister criticised the move. “I think it’s posturing,” Zarif said, according to a transcript provided by CBS. “I think it’s all going the wrong direction in addressing this issue.”

US and Saudi analyses of the attack have described the strike as complex, involving a mix of low-flying drones and cruise missiles coming from the north.

The attack exposed vulnerabilities in Saudi Arabia’s defence capabilities, despite the Kingdom having spent hundreds of billions of dollars on weaponry in recent years.

American officials blame Iran for the attack that knocked out half the production of oil from a key Saudi field.

Houthi rebels fighting a Saudi-led coalition in Yemen took credit for the attack.

“I’m confident that Iran did not play a role,” Zarif said. Anybody who “conducts an impartial investigation will reach that conclusion,” he said.

With election over, US wants Abe to deliver on Iran and trade

  
Analysis, Politics
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Having scored a sound victory in the upper house election Sunday, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is back to confronting thorny diplomatic issues as Washington presses for tangible results on global security and trade.

U.S. President Donald Trump had signaled that he would wait until the Japanese election is over to push for a trade deal. Now Washington is certain to step up pressure to put together an agreement palatable to U.S. farmers ahead of the 2020 presidential election. Japan is increasingly alarmed by the U.S. bringing Trump style deal-making to diplomacy and trade.

John Bolton, the U.S. national security adviser, was in the Japanese capital Monday, seeking Tokyo’s support amid rising tensions with Iran. Bolton told Japanese Defense Minister Takeshi Iwaya that their two countries “are at an extremely critical juncture to strengthen the bilateral alliance.” He likely called on Tokyo to participate in a coalition that would safeguard ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard seized a British oil tanker in the strait on Friday. A Japanese-owned oil tanker also suffered an attack in the area in June.

Discussions about the future of the Japan-U.S. alliance will continue over the next several days and weeks, Bolton told reporters after his meeting with Iwaya, adding that he was very “optimistic” about the outcome.

Abe told reporters on Monday that he first wanted to focus on what Japan could do to ease tensions in the Middle East. “The peace and stability of the Middle East are critically important for Japan’s energy security,” Abe said. (more…)

US pressure & EU inaction left Iran with ‘very few options’ except to retaliate

  
Analysis, Politics
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The seizure of British-owned oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz is the signal that Iran’s patience has run out, due to European inaction for over a year after the US pullout from the nuclear deal, analysts told RT.

Prior to May, Iran exercised extreme restraint despite US sanctions and its frustration with Europe’s failure to offset the losses they caused, Hamed Mousavi, political science professor at the University of Tehran, said.

Eventually, Iran’s patience ran out, but not before the US “made sure that Iran has very few options remaining.”

“For a year Tehran was not doing anything and was abiding by the nuclear deal to the letter in the hopes that the Europeans would come up with a form of a mechanism… that would allow Iran to circumvent the US sanctions,” Mousavi said.

By refusing to hold back any longer, Iran wants to send a clear signal to the UK, “but especially to the Americans,” that Tehran has “the means and the power to respond to pressure and to aggression.” Iran’s actions are also a response to the US military build-up at its Middle East doorstep, Mousavi said.

Iranian journalist and Middle East expert Abbas Aslani agreed that the US withdrawal was what triggered the crisis along with the “inaction of the Europeans.”

The US might flex its military muscles in the Persian Gulf, but it’s likely not looking forward to entangling itself in a major war with Iran, especially with the US presidential election inching closer. In part, it is because Iran has convinced the US that it would never be a short, victorious war.

“What [US President Donald Trump] might be after is a short and quick attack against the country, but Iran has made sure through the channels it has that no quick war will happen if the Americans attack the country.”

Instead, the US would be looking at a long campaign that could see Iran attacking its military bases and interests in the region, the type of bog-down that can cost Trump his re-election.

Iran seized two British-operated vessels in the State of Hormuz on Friday, one of which has since been released after reportedly receiving warnings over safety and environmental issues.

The other vessel, the Stena Impero, is still in Iranian custody after being accused of maritime violations. Iran claimed that the tanker turned off its tracking device and ignored warnings before the seizure. The UK has denounced the incident as “unacceptable” but said that it hopes to resolve it through diplomacy.

Iran Pres. Rouhani says Iran is determined to leave doors open to save nuclear deal

  
  Analysis
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Comments after telephone call with France’s Macron

More encouraging comments from Iran….
Iran Pres Rouhani says Iran is determined to leave doors open to save 2015 nuclear deal. This comes after a telephone call with France’s Macron.
The price of crude oil is trading down $1.81 or -3.2% at $54.96. The low just extended to $54.85

CNN report 5 Iranian boats tried to seize a British oil tanker in Persian Gulf

  
Analysis, Politics
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Five armed Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps boats in the Persian Gulf tried to seize a British oil tanker

  • CNN citing two unnamed US officials “with direct knowledge of the incident”
  • tanker was transiting out of the Gulf, was crossing into the Strait of Hormuz area
  • A US aircraft was overhead and recorded video of the incident.
OK, more:
  • The British Heritage, owned by BP Shipping and registered to the Isle of Man, was due to dock in the Iraqi city of Basra at the weekend but made an unexpected U-turn.
Link (this to a UK Telegraph report, not the CNN one)
Five armed Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps boats in the Persian Gulf tried to seize a British oil tanker 

Iran to boost uranium enrichment to over 3.67% on Sunday – FARS

  
Analysis, Politics
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Report from the Iranian news agency

There is always talk about Iran and nuclear weapons and the market doesn’t usually react. Why? Because it’s all scare tactics.
Uranium needs to enriched to around 90%.
From Wikipedia:
“Uranium as it is taken directly from the Earth is not suitable as fuel for most nuclear reactors and requires additional processes to make it usable. Uranium is mined either underground or in an open pit depending on the depth at which it is found. After the uranium ore is mined, it must go through a milling process to extract the uranium from the ore. This is accomplished by a combination of chemical processes with the end product being concentrated uranium oxide, which is known as “yellowcake”, contains roughly 60% uranium whereas the ore typically contains less than 1% uranium and as little as 0.1% uranium. After the milling process is complete, the uranium must next undergo a process of conversion, “to either uranium dioxide, which can be used as the fuel for those types of reactors that do not require enriched uranium, or into uranium hexafluoride, which can be enriched to produce fuel for the majority of types of reactors”[3]. Naturally-occurring uranium is made of a mixture of U-235 and U-238. The U-235 is fissile meaning it is easily split with neutrons while the remainder is U-238, but in nature, more than 99% of the extracted ore is U-238. Most nuclear reactors require enriched uranium, which is uranium with higher concentrations of U-235 ranging between 3.5% and 4.5%.”

Trump meets Kim Jong Un at Korea’s DMZ

  
Analysis, Politics
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Donald Trump became the first sitting U.S. president to enter North Korea when he stepped over the border to greet North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in the Demilitarized Zone between the two Koreas.

The two leaders met for the third time at the peace village of Panmunjom, the site of the demarcation line drawn as the Korean War ended in 1953. The two leaders first met in Singapore in June last year.

“I never expected to meet you at this place,” Kim told Trump, moments after the U.S. president stepped over the border. The pair then went over to the South side, where they briefly chatted and spoke to the media before greeting South Korean President Moon Jae-in.

“Stepping over that line was a great honor,” Trump said. “A lot of really positive things are happening,” stressing that he liked Kim from the first time they met.

“I’m sure our special relations will lead to good results,” Kim said. “I’m sure our good relations have a mysterious power that can overcome difficulties.”

Trump and Kim then entered closed door talks without Moon in the House of Freedom on the South side of the DMZ. (more…)

Heads up – Trump – Abe meeting underway

  
Analysis, Politics
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A bilateral meeting between US president trump and Japan’s PM Abe Shinzo

  • At the G20
  • In Osaka
Its begun – expect some comments to follow.
Yesterday we heard there are no discussions taking place on the Japan-US defense agreement. Trump has had problems with the yen though, I wonder if that’ll come up?
A bilateral meeting between US president trump and Japan's PM Abe Shinzo

Unlikely US would agree to lift restrictions on Huawei – US official

  
  Analysis
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US official cited by Reuters

  • Trump’s decision on whether to impose more tariffs on Chinese goods depends on meeting with Xi, nothing agreed ahead of time
  • Unlikely US would agree to lift restrictions on Huawei
From China’s perspective, it would make sense that Xi wouldn’t agree to meet without assurances that more sanctions wouldn’t be applied. If Trump walks out of the meeting and hits the US with a fresh round, it would reflect poorly on the leader. In general, these things are always agreed on ahead of time, with room for tweaks.

G20 starts today, US – China meeting tomorrow. Deal seen as unlikely … but

  
Analysis, Economy
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Perhaps there is scope for some sort of US – China agreement stemming from the Trump – Xi meeting at the G20 summit.

‘Agree to keep talking’ seems the most likely outcome IMO, but we’ll soon find out. Any increase in hostility would be a negative but a dinner together is probably not going to lead to this, at least right away.
When do we get a deal? If we do.?
An interesting overnight note from ING says it’ll not be until towards the end of this year:
both sides want a deal
  • China can hurt the US economically but it knows that the US can hurt China even more. 
  • President Trump needs a deal to show the American people that he delivers on his promises to get better terms of trade for the US. He knows that this is best done without the US economy having to suffer from Chinese retaliation for an extended period of time.
We expect a deal to be struck in the last quarter of this year
  • it is likely that China as well as the US are prepared to make concessions in the end
  • After all, this is what’s happened in the renegotiation of Nafta
  • To strike a deal, Trump had to accept that Mexico and Canada would not agree to all of his original demands
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On that 
  • Trump had to accept that Mexico and Canada would not agree to all of his original demands
You’d say the same of China, but so far they’ve held firm. 
Added – G20 start 28th.
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