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3 Trading Truth

TRUTHLINKSHumility:  We are in a business with change.  I have never met a person who has been successful at anything who thought they had it all figured out.  Yes, celebrate and enjoy but tomorrow you start over at the beginning.  Celebrate later and not until the play is over.

Perspective: Trading is emotional.  Eliminating the highs and lows is important because it takes out so much energy.  Yes it would have been cool to dive into the end zone but I would have had to pick myself off the ground and had to be on the extra point team the next play. The low is never as low or the high is never as high as it is in reality, generally.  Having perspective is how it all evens out.

Preparation:  When asked why athletes make better traders I always respond because they are willing to work long hours for the few times when it all lines up.  For football, you train 6 months the play a season.  You have 12 games.  You spend 4 days preparing, 1 day playing, 1 day reevaluating, and 1 day resting.  We prepare for those times and we always are waiting for the next time.  One trade can make your day, one week can make your month, one month can make your year, one year can make your career. (more…)

Trade What You See?

Trade what you see” is a common mantra among short-term traders who formulate their trade ideas from charts. But do we process information from charts in accurate and non-biased ways?
An interesting set of studies reported in the 2003 Journal of Behavioral Finance suggest that perceptual biases in what we see can skew our trading and investment decisions.
Specifically, when investors see a chart that has a salient high point, they are more likely to want to buy that stock. When the chart depicts a salient low point, they are more apt to sell. In the words of the authors, “expectations about future prices assimilated to extreme past prices.”
The authors found that, when a chart contained a highly noticeable high point, traders listed more favorable features of the stock; when the chart depicted a salient low, more negative aspects of the stock were emphasized. Their analyses suggest that charts affect investors by providing them with enhanced access to either positive or negative information about the stock. In other words, our processing of the chart creates a selective bias in retrieval, leading us to view shares in artificially positive or negative ways.
It isn’t too far from the authors’ finding to a broader psychological hypothesis that *any* highly salient feature of a trading situation may skew information retrieval, perception, and action. For instance, the salient information may be a recent large gain or loss; a dramatic market move; or a piece of news. Trading what we see might be dangerous for the same reason that it is dangerous to trade what we hear or what we feel. 
When one facet of a situation becomes highly salient to us, we overweight it in our perception and information processing. Our ability to view the entire situation in perspective is compromised. What is most obvious in a chart–or in our minds–may not be an accurate reflection of underlying supply and demand in a marketplace.

CHANGE IS ESSENTIAL

The stock market, just like life, can change on a dime.  In the market, just as in life, we must learn to adapt to change.  What separates the great trader from the rest of the crowd is his or her ability to change based on current market conditions.  In other words, NO EGO ALLOWED.  Mark Douglas, in his first book entitled The Disciplined Trader writes,

“There must be a difference between these two types of traders-the small majority of winners and the vast majority of losers who want to know what the winners know. The difference is that the traders who can make money consistently on a weekly, monthly, and yearly basis approach trading from the perspective of a mental discipline.  When asked for their secrets of success, they categorically state that they didn’t achieve any measure of consistency in accumulating wealth from trading until they learned self-discipline, emotional control, and the ability to change their minds to flow with the markets.”

We trade the current market conditions as they unfold with a plan to trade one way or the other.  To do otherwise would be to fight an undefeated foe.

The Traders Mindset

So far the Apprenticed Investor series has discussed a lot of don’ts. Don’t do this, don’t do that; avoid talking to these kinds of traders; don’t say or think these kinds of things.

Well, it’s time to shift gears, and since trading is an active enterprise, I’ll discuss some things you should do. I plan to expand on these ideas significantly in future episodes.

Taken together, the following 10 rules will not only help you with the philosophical grounding necessary for thoughtful — and successful — investing, they will help you avoid some of the more common mistakes made by investors and traders early in their careers.

This is the “Zen of Trading;” It is more than an overview — it’s an investment philosophy that can help you develop an investing framework of your own.

1. Have a Comprehensive Plan: Whether you are an investor or active trader, you must have a plan. Too many investors have no strategy at all — they merely react to each twitch of the market on the fly. If you fail to plan, goes the saying, then you plan to fail.
Consider how Roger Clemens approaches a game. He studies his opponent, constructs his game plan and goes to work.

Investors should write up a business plan, as if they were asking a Venture Capitalist for start-up money; just because you are the angel investor doesn’t mean you should skip the planning stages.

2. Expect to Be Wrong: We’ve discussed this previously, but it is such a key aspect of successful investing that it bears repeating. You will be wrong, you will be wrong often and, occasionally, you will be spectacularly wrong.
Michael Jordan has a fabulous perspective on the subject: “I’ve missed more than 9,000 shots in my career. I’ve lost almost 300 games. Twenty six times, I’ve been trusted to take the game-winning shot and missed. I’ve failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed.”

Jordan was the greatest ball player of all time, and not only because of his superb physical skills: He understood the nature and importance of failure, and placed it appropriately within a larger framework of the game.

The best investors have no ego tied up in a trade. Those who refuse to recognize the simple truism of “being wrong often” end up giving away unacceptable amounts of capital. Stubborn pride and lack of risk management allow egotists to stay in stocks down 30%, 40% or 50% — or worse.

 

3. Predetermine Stops Before Opening Any Position: Sign a “prenuptial agreement” with every stock you participate in: When it hits some point you have determined before you purchased it, that’s it, you’re out, end of story. Once you have come to understand that you will be frequently wrong, it becomes much easier to use stop-losses and sell targets.
This is true regardless of your methodology: It may be below support or beneath a moving average, or perhaps you prefer a specific percentage amount. Some people use the prior month’s low. But whatever your stop-loss method is, stick to it religiously. Why? The prenup means you are making the exit decision before you are in a trade — while you are still neutral and objective.

4. Follow Discipline Religiously: The greatest rules in the world are worthless if you do not have the personal discipline to see them through. I can recall every single time I broke a trading rule of my own, and it invariably cost me money.
RealMoney’s Chartman, Gary B. Smith, slavishly follows his discipline, and he notes that every time some hedge fund — chock full of Nobel Laureates and Ivy League whiz kids — blows up, the mea culpa is the same: If only we hadn’t overrode the system.

In Jack Schwager’s seminal book Market Wizards, the single most important theme repeated by each of the wizards was the importance of discipline. (more…)

The Zen of Trading

So far the Apprenticed Investor series has discussed a lot of don’ts. Don’t do this, don’t do that; avoid talking to these kinds of traders; don’t say or think these kinds of things.

Well, it’s time to shift gears, and since trading is an active enterprise, I’ll discuss some things you should do. I plan to expand on these ideas significantly in future episodes.

Taken together, the following 10 rules will not only help you with the philosophical grounding necessary for thoughtful — and successful — investing, they will help you avoid some of the more common mistakes made by investors and traders early in their careers.

This is the “Zen of Trading;” It is more than an overview — it’s an investment philosophy that can help you develop an investing framework of your own.

1. Have a Comprehensive Plan: Whether you are an investor or active trader, you must have a plan. Too many investors have no strategy at all — they merely react to each twitch of the market on the fly. If you fail to plan, goes the saying, then you plan to fail.
Consider how Roger Clemens approaches a game. He studies his opponent, constructs his game plan and goes to work.

Investors should write up a business plan, as if they were asking a Venture Capitalist for start-up money; just because you are the angel investor doesn’t mean you should skip the planning stages.

2. Expect to Be Wrong: We’ve discussed this previously, but it is such a key aspect of successful investing that it bears repeating. You will be wrong, you will be wrong often and, occasionally, you will be spectacularly wrong.
Michael Jordan has a fabulous perspective on the subject: “I’ve missed more than 9,000 shots in my career. I’ve lost almost 300 games. Twenty six times, I’ve been trusted to take the game-winning shot and missed. I’ve failed over and over and over again in my life. And that is why I succeed.”

Jordan was the greatest ball player of all time, and not only because of his superb physical skills: He understood the nature and importance of failure, and placed it appropriately within a larger framework of the game.

The best investors have no ego tied up in a trade. Those who refuse to recognize the simple truism of “being wrong often” end up giving away unacceptable amounts of capital. Stubborn pride and lack of risk management allow egotists to stay in stocks down 30%, 40% or 50% — or worse.

 

3. Predetermine Stops Before Opening Any Position: Sign a “prenuptial agreement” with every stock you participate in: When it hits some point you have determined before you purchased it, that’s it, you’re out, end of story. Once you have come to understand that you will be frequently wrong, it becomes much easier to use stop-losses and sell targets.
This is true regardless of your methodology: It may be below support or beneath a moving average, or perhaps you prefer a specific percentage amount. Some people use the prior month’s low. But whatever your stop-loss method is, stick to it religiously. Why? The prenup means you are making the exit decision before you are in a trade — while you are still neutral and objective.

4. Follow Discipline Religiously: The greatest rules in the world are worthless if you do not have the personal discipline to see them through. I can recall every single time I broke a trading rule of my own, and it invariably cost me money.
RealMoney’s Chartman, Gary B. Smith, slavishly follows his discipline, and he notes that every time some hedge fund — chock full of Nobel Laureates and Ivy League whiz kids — blows up, the mea culpa is the same: If only we hadn’t overrode the system.

In Jack Schwager’s seminal book Market Wizards, the single most important theme repeated by each of the wizards was the importance of discipline.

5. Keep Your Emotion In Check: Emotion is the enemy of investors, and that’s why you must have a methodology that relies on objective data points, and not gut instinct. The purpose of Rules 1, 2 and 3 is to eliminate the impact of the natural human response to stress — fear and panic — and to avoid the flip side of the coin — greed.
Remember, we, as a species, were never “hard-wired” for the capital markets. Our instinctive “fight or flight response” did not evolve to deal with crossing moving averages or CEOs resigning or restated earnings.

This evolutionary emotional baggage is why we want to sell at the bottom and chase stocks at the top. The money-making trade — buying when there’s blood in the streets, and selling when everyone else is clamoring to buy — goes against every instinct you have. It requires a detached objectivity simply not possible when trading on emotion.

6. Take Responsibility: Many folks believe “the game is fixed.” To them, I say: get over it. Stop whining and take the proper responsibility for your trades, your losses and yourself.
Your knowledge of the game-rigging gives you an edge. So use your hard-won knowledge to make money.

We have a national culture of blame-passing, and it infected investing long ago. Enron did not cause your losses, and neither did stock-touting analysts, or talking heads on CNBC. You did, and the sooner you accept this, the better off you will be.

A Chinese proverb is particularly insightful as applied to trading: “He who blames others has a long way to go on his journey. He who blames himself is halfway there. He who blames no one has arrived.”

7. Constantly Improve: Investing is so competitive that you cannot afford to stand still. Investors should constantly seek to raise their skill level by learning as much as possible about the markets, the economy, trading technologies and various schools of investing thought. But whatever you read, you must do so with a keenly skeptical eye, while retaining an open mind (‘taint easy to do).
One way to constantly improve is to find something for which you have a peculiar natural proclivity for and develop that gift. It may be moving averages, or position sizing, or MACD, or Bollinger Bands or the Arms index. Perhaps you have an expertise in some aspect of technology, or a particular sector.

This is essential because a developed expertise yields ancillary benefits. It bleeds over into everything else, with net positive results. The specific area of expertise you own does not matter as much as having one. Those of you who have been trading for a while will know exactly what I am referring to.

8. Change Is Constant: Heraclitus was a Greek philosopher best known for his “Doctrine of Flux”: “The only constant is change.”
That doctrine is especially true in the markets. Therefore, as you constantly upgrade your skills, you must remain supple enough to adapt to an ever-changing field of play.

Human nature — especially in herds — is unchanging. But these behaviors must be contemplated within their larger context. Add a new element — PCs, lower trading costs, the Internet, vast amounts of cheap data, even CNBC — and you introduce a new factor that impacts all the players on the field.

As conditions change, you must decipher how they impact your strategy, your emotions and your trading — and adjust accordingly.

9. Learn to Short/Hedge Stocks: Short is not a four-letter word. Successful traders learn to play both sides of the fence. That’s less controversial today than it was as the market was first falling apart, but it is no less true.
When a particular strategy isn’t working, the market is telling you something. Thoughtful traders must consider whether there are bigger issues than their own trading mechanics when they enter a losing streak.

In Law School, students learn they have to be ready to argue either side of a case. You never truly knew a case until you could argue both for and against it. Only when you were able to see its warts could you truly appreciate the beauty.

The trading corollary is that you should never own a stock unless you know what makes it an attractive short. Each buy and sell decision should be an argument pro and con.

The market is cyclical; count on a bear market every four years or so. Unless you plan on sitting out for 18 to 24 months once or twice each decade — as much as four years out of 10 — you better learn to either short stocks or hedge long positions.

10. Understand Sector Strength and Market Trend: This rule generates the most “pushback” of any on the list, because it’s so counter-intuitive: Stock selection matters less than you think.
Studies have convincingly demonstrated that about 30% of a stock’s progress is determined by the company itself; a stock’s sector is equal to at least another 30% (if not more). The overall direction of the market is an even bigger factor, counting for some 40%.

If you own the best company in the wrong sector, or buy the greatest stock when the broader market is going the other way — both positions are likely to be losers. But if you see a strong sector, the market trend will help out even the weakest stock in the bunch.

So that’s the 10 rules I call the “Zen of Trading.”

Investing skills are worthless without a broader framework in which to practice them. The above rules will provide you with that frame of reference. They were as true 100 years ago as they will be true 100 years from now. Those who develop a plan and an investment philosophy are on the path to achieving trading success.

LESSONS FROM TRADING IN THE ZONE BY MARK DOUGLAS

1.) When it comes to trading, it turns out that the skills we learn to earn high marks in school, advance our careers and create relationships with other people, turn out to be inappropriate for trading.  Traders must learn to think in terms of probabilities and surrender all of the skills acquired to achieve in virtually every other aspect of life.

2.) Within 9 months of moving to Chicago, I had lost nearly everything I owned.  My losses were the result of both my trading activities and my exorbitant lifestyle, which demanded that I make a lot of money as a trader.

3.) You don’t need to know what’s going to happen next to make money.  Anything can happen.  Every moment is unique, meaning every edge and outcome is truly a unique experience.  The trade either works or it doesn’t.

4.) More or better market analysis is not the solution to his trading difficulties or lack of consistent results.  It is attitude and “state of mind” that determine his results.  A winner’s mindset means learning how to think in probabilities.

5.) The edge means there’s a higher probability of one outcome than another.  The greater your confidence, the easier it will be to execute your trades.

6.) Do you ever feel compelled to make a trade because you are afraid that you might miss out?

7.) People , expressing their beliefs and expectations about the future, make prices move- not models.  The fact that a model makes a logical and reasonable projection based on all the relevant variables is not of much value if the traders who are responsible for most of the trading volume aren’t aware of the model or don’t believe in it.  In other words, people who trade don’t always act in a rational manner.

8.) Price movement could be so volatile that it would be very difficult, if not impossible, to stay in a trade in order to realize the fundamental analysts’ objective. (more…)

Never Revenge On The Market

There is a direct correlation between your ability to let the market tell you what it is likely to do next and the degree to which you have released yourself from the negative effects of any beliefs about losing, being wrong, and revenge on the markets. Not being aware of this relationship, most traders will continue to observe the market from a contaminated perspective

Never Revenge On The Market

There is a direct correlation between your ability to let the market tell you what it is likely to do next and the degree to which you have released yourself from the negative effects of any beliefs about losing, being wrong, and revenge on the markets. Not being aware of this relationship, most traders will continue to observe the market from a contaminated perspective.—-The Disciplined Trader,Mark Douglas

Set Goals

goal1

Each of us needs to set goals within our personal trading programs to become successful.

We all need to know exactly what those goals mean and how to best achieve them.

It will not happen overnight, however many people seem to start strong when they decide to be a trader but then quit when things do not happen fast enough for them. Or maybe they do not start very strong, but get serious when they get into their routine of executing trades and soon become discouraged and stop doing what was working. Or maybe they finish each session strong, but that was just to recover what was lost during the rest of the time when they were not focusing on their trading strategy.

To reach a level of continuing growth as a trader, each of us must have a plan in place and then ensure that we do everything possible to begin each day very strong in our preparation steps. We must then continue to make strong confident decisions while we trader even when the results are not what we expect.

Finally, we all need to have a target each day that determines when to finish our session and be strong enough to adhere to that plan. If we keep going, it generally leads to massive losses and frustration which then stays with you until you begin to trade again. This will cause a very sour perspective of trading when you attempt to start a new session. Start Strong. Trade Strong. Finish Strong!

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