Archives of “Personal consumption expenditures price index” tag

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Japan GDP for Q1, preliminary: GDP -0.9% sa q/q (vs. expected -1.1%)

  
Analysis, Economy
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Japanese economic growth in the January to March quarter of 2020 – this the preliminary release

GDP -0.9% sa q/q
  • expected -1.1%, prior -1.8%

GDP -3.4% annualised sa q/q

  • expected -4.5%, prior -7.1%
GDP -0.8% nominal q/q
  • expected -1.3%, prior -1.5%

GDP deflator (an inflation indication) %

  • expected 0.7%, prior 1.2%

Private consumption -0.7%

  • expected -1.6% q/q, prior -2.8%

Business spending -0.5% (capex)

  • expected -1.5%, prior -4.6%
More:
  • 2 consecutive quarters of contraction for the Japanese economy, the economy moves into recession for the first time since H2 of 2015
  • Q1 exports had their biggest drop q/q since the 2nd quarter of 2011, down 6%
January and February were stable to slowly picking up for Japan but the outbreak in  March hit economic growth. The April to June quarter is likely to be even worse, with a more prolonged impact. Restrictions were imposed by the April 7 national emergency declaration shutting many restaurants, large retail outlets, hotels and more. The restrictions were partially lifted on May 14, but are still in place for Tokyo and Osaka, the two largest cities in Japan.
Yen doing little.

European mid-morning: Currencies remain little changed but big week lies ahead

  
  Analysis
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Major currencies are <0.1% changed against the dollar so far today

EOD 28-10

The pound is arguably the only active mover as cable rose to a high of 1.2859 earlier in the session before settling back to near flat levels currently around 1.2820-30 levels.
Other major currencies are holding in narrow ranges against the dollar with little conviction to break stride so far today.
The risk mood is a bit mixed overall with European equities looking indecisive but bond yields are marked higher amid the fact that a Brexit extension was granted, with the move higher coming after France moved on their stance from last week.
Despite the slower start to currencies this week, fret not because it is going to be a crucial week ahead and here are some of the highlights to look forward to:
Monday, 28 October (still to come)
– UK parliamentary vote on Johnson’s election motion
Wednesday, 30 October
– Australia Q3 CPI data
– France Q3 preliminary GDP data
– US October ADP employment change
– US Q3 advanced GDP data
– Bank of Canada October monetary policy meeting
– FOMC October monetary policy meeting
Thursday, 31 October
– New Zealand October ANZ business confidence
– China October manufacturing, non-manufacturing PMI
– BOJ October monetary policy meeting
– Eurozone October preliminary CPI data
– Eurozone Q3 preliminary GDP data
– Canada August monthly GDP data
– US September PCE deflator data
Friday, 1 November
– China October Caixin manufacturing PMI
– US October non-farm payrolls, labour market report

Schedule for Week of September 22, 2019

  
  Analysis
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The key reports this week are August New Home sales, and the third estimate of Q2 GDP.

Other key indicators include Personal Income and Outlays for August and Case-Shiller house prices for July.

For manufacturing, the Richmond and Kansas City Fed manufacturing surveys will be released this week.

—– Monday, Sept 23rd —–

8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index for August. This is a composite index of other data.

—– Tuesday, Sept 24th —–
 

Case-Shiller House Prices Indices9:00 AM ET: S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index for July.

This graph shows the nominal seasonally adjusted National Index, Composite 10 and Composite 20 indexes through the most recent report (the Composite 20 was started in January 2000).

The consensus is for a 2.1% year-over-year increase in the Comp 20 index for July.

9:00 AM: FHFA House Price Index for July 2018. This was originally a GSE only repeat sales, however there is also an expanded index.

10:00 AM ET: Richmond Fed Survey of Manufacturing Activity for September.

—– Wednesday, Sept 25th —–

7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index.

 

New Home Sales10:00 AM: New Home Sales for August from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963. The dashed line is the sales rate for last month.

The consensus is for 665 thousand SAAR, up from 635 thousand in July.

—– Thursday, Sept 26th —–

8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released. The consensus is for 211 thousand initial claims, up from 208 thousand the previous week.

8:30 AM: Gross Domestic Product, 2nd quarter 2018 (Third estimate). The consensus is that real GDP increased 2.0% annualized in Q2, unchanged from the second estimate of 2.0%.

10:00 AM: Pending Home Sales Index for August. The consensus is 0.6% increase in the index.

11:00 AM: the Kansas City Fed manufacturing survey for September. This is the last of the regional surveys for September.

—– Friday, Sept 27th —–

8:30 AM: Durable Goods Orders for August from the Census Bureau. The consensus is for a 1.2% decrease in durable goods orders.

8:30 AM: Personal Income and Outlays for August. The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in personal income, and for a 0.3% increase in personal spending. And for the Core PCE price index to increase 0.2%.

10:00 AM: University of Michigan’s Consumer sentiment index (Final for September). The consensus is for a reading of 92.0.
Read more at https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2019/09/schedule-for-week-of-september-22-2019.html#ufpCwOoLSeldtU2e.99

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