Archives of “Opinion poll” tag

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Poll results – Rally in global stocks nearly over, further gains will be limited, correction likely by year-end

  
Analysis, Global Indices
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Reuters polled equity market analysts and that headline above is the summary:

In very brief summary:
  • The spread of the Delta variant of the coronavirus and the U.S. Federal Reserve’s pending plans to taper its asset purchases are likely to leave equity markets exposed to turbulence over the coming months.
  • positive earnings season catalyst now behind us
  • 66 of 107 analysts said a correction in global equity markets by end-year was likely. The remaining 41 said unlikely.
Reuters have published a long piece, with a few anecdotal remarks that you might find of further interest, here is the link for plenty more.
Reuters polled equity market analysts and that headline above is the summary:

What’s priced in for the US election

  
  Analysis
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It’s 76 days until the election

Biden and Trump picture
The deadlock in US economic stimulus negotiations highlights the political risk for the US coming out of the election. The sides simply can’t compromise.
At this point, you have to assume that most Americas have made up their minds about Trump, Biden and how they will vote.
In normal times, a Biden win would be the consensus. National polls in the past week show him from +4 to +11. Of course, these aren’t normal times and no one has forgotten the surprise on election night in 2016. Even with that, it’s worth remembering that Clinton won the popular vote by about what was expected, it was that a handful of states surprised. Her polling average was also only about +3% and she never reached this kind of spread.
Here’s how BMO sees it:

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