Archives of “Nidovirales” tag

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HK media: There may be no immunity against Covid-19, new Wuhan study suggests

  
  Analysis
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South China Morning Post  with the sobering news from a study at the epicentre of China’s coronavirus outbreak earlier this year.

The newspaper cites new research on antibodies by Chinese and American scientists, which concludes that humans may never develop immunity against Covid-19
  • study focuses on whether hospital workers in Wuhan who were directly exposed to infected patients at the early stage of the outbreak had developed antibodies
  • “People are unlikely to produce long-lasting protective antibodies against this virus,” the researchers concluded in a non-peer-reviewed paper posted on preprint website medRxiv.org
South China Morning Post  with the sobering news from a study at the epicentre of China's coronavirus outbreak earlier this year.

The number of potential coronavirus vaccines in development is now above 70

  
Analysis, Life
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But, these are just two of many. The World Health Organization (WHO) says there are 70 coronavirus vaccines in development globally:
  • three are already already being tested in human trials
There are manufacturing contenders in the race:
  • Hong Kong-listed CanSino Biologics
  • Beijing Institute of Biotechnology
  • US’ Moderna and Inovio Pharmaceuticals
  • Pfizer and Sanofi also

China, Japan, & South Korea at risk of a second wave of disruptions to their supply chains

  
  Analysis
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South China Morning Post  on what is coming next –  ‘second wave’ of coronavirus economic impact

  • China, Japan and South Korea are at risk of a second wave of disruptions to their supply chains due to the ongoing impact of the coronavirus epidemic, which risks already slowing global trade, analysts warned.
  • The three Asian countries contribute around 24 per cent of the entire world economy with a combined yearly trading volume of over US$720 billion, forming one of the most integrated international economic blocs in the world.
Here is the link for more.

South China Morning Post  on what is coming next -  'second wave' of coronavirus economic impact 

Italy coronavirus cases are inflated due to testing errors – WHO official

  
  Analysis
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A WHO official with a remark over the coronavirus cases in Italy

Some good news for risk perhaps? The market isn’t budging though as there is no further details on the margin of error. That said, the fact that we are seeing cases become more widespread across Europe doesn’t help to do much damage control for now.

Update: Okay, this is a piece from Corriere which is saying that the Veneto region did not follow test guidelines when testing patients for the infection. Just take note that Veneto had 71 reported infections in the country yesterday, out of the nearly 400 cases reported.

Death toll in China’s coronavirus outbreak has risen to at least 212

  
  Analysis
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And the number of cases of coronavirus confirmed across thje glove is now over 8,100 9,000

For Hubei province (Wuhan is the capital city of Hubei and the epicentre of the outbreak)
  • 42 deaths confirmed
  • 1,200 new cases confirmed over the past 24 hours
More figures will come as the morning progresses in China, but as a heads up it appears more than 70% of new cases are outside of Hubei province.

Warning on the potential for a recession due to the coronavirus – a critical ‘cushion’

  
Analysis, Economy
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Stephen Roach warns on the potential for the coronavirus outbreak to shock the world in a recession

  • Historically, the rapid expansion of cross-border trade has been an important part of the global growth cushion that shields the world economy from all-too-frequent shocks. 
  • Now, however, reflecting the unusually sharp post-crisis slowdown in global trade growth, this cushion has shrunk dramatically, to just 13% over the 2010-19 period. With the world economy operating dangerously close to stall speed, the confluence of ever-present shocks and a sharply diminished trade cushion raises serious questions about financial markets’ increasingly optimistic view of global economic prospects.
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Who is Roach?
  • a senior fellow at Yale University’s Jackson Institute for Global Affairs
  • a senior lecturer at Yale School of Management
  • formerly chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia and chief economist at Morgan Stanley
Stephen Roach warns on the potential for the coronavirus outbreak to shock the world in a recession

OPEC said to be discussing extending output cuts until at least June

  
  Analysis
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OPEC is said to be alarmed by the coronavirus outbreak

OPEC

Reuters is reporting on the matter, citing three OPEC sources, in saying that the bloc aims to extend the current oil output cuts through to June at least.

Adding that members are also discussing on deepening the cuts if oil prices or demand should fall significantly on the coronavirus outbreak.
There is little doubt that the virus will weigh on oil demand in Q1 at the very least but if it does have a prolonged impact, OPEC may have to live with lower oil prices until the world adjusts to the situation in the long-term.
I mean, if they can’t even properly comply with current quotas – what more if they choose to deepen cuts further. It’d be all talk but no action.

Are Asian stocks due further falls post Lunar New year? Probably, yes.

  
  Analysis
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Coronavirus has a fear factor

According to a quick google search around 50,000+ people die from the flu each year. It is mainly the old or the already unwell who are most susceptible to the virus. In 2003 the total number of SARS death was 700+ from a total sample of 8000+ cases. Here is a quote from the World Health Organisation on a person’s chances of dieing from SARS during the outbreak if they caught the disease.

The likelihood of dying from SARS in a given area has been shown to depend on the profile of the cases, including the age group most affected and the presence of underlying disease. Based on data received by WHO to date, the case fatality ratio is estimated to be less than 1% in persons aged 24 years or younger, 6% in persons aged 25 to 44 years, 15% in persons aged 45 to 64 years, and greater than 50% in persons aged 65 years and older

So far, 17 people have died due to the Coronavirus and this is a concern. The total number of coronavirus cases is rising all the time and the fear factor alone should weigh on equity markets. People will not want to travel around if they can avoid it as the disease spreads. I was surprised that on January 22 the Asian markets closed higher, even though the case load doubled. The Jan 23 response made much more sense to me in the Asian markets as they fell sharply lower ahead of the Chinese New Year Holidays. Sadly, it now seems almost inevitable that we will have a sharp increase in cases over this travelling time.
Triple top in Nikkei 
Coronavirus has a fear factor

A triple top in the Nikkei makes an attractive level for shorts if and when the coronavirus fear factor takes hold. Furthermore, it is still too early for folks to fully grasp the implications of the disease and unknowns remain.

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