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Recipe for catching a reversal:

recipesIngredients: For this recipe you will need one (1) well-known or “classic” technical chart pattern on a daily time frame, preferably near the high or low of the mid-term price range. When your pattern of choice has been observed, you will then need to collect at least two (2) or more instances of public expressions of sentiment which confirm the prognostication of said pattern: pre- or post-market media bytes, business news website headlines, confident/fearful declarations on your favorite trading forum, or any other variety of before-the-fact assumption.

Preparation: When the above ingredients have been secured, wait for a daily close which would confirm “ripeness” of the pattern. Next morning, enter a stop order at the confirmation price in the opposite direction of pattern breakout to initiate position. If stop is triggered, immediately enter protective stop at prior low/high.

Parboiling: If market moves quickly in your favor, take profits on at least a partial portion; mentally “set aside” closed profit for re-entry if market pulls back towards initial entry price with next few days. If pullback manages to hold above prior high/low, re-enter full position at your discretion.

Cooking: Set protective stop for entire position at breakeven and let sit undisturbed for a few days or more if possible.

Presentation: Dish is ready when “failure” point of pattern is breached; serve at market or with trailing stop, whichever you prefer.

Words of Wisdom

Words of Wisdom

“When the wind changes direction, there are those who build walls and those who build windmills. We would like to build windmills.”

“On acquisitions: Don’t ask a barber whether you need a hair cut”

“Knowing our limitations is the key.”

“How does Warren balances between his heart, mind or pocket?”

“On philanthropy: We don’t intend to become the richest person in the cemetery.”

“90% of our assets go home in the night and hopefully return the next morning. People are our assets.”

“Be open to learning. Learning belongs to the future and knowledge belongs to the past.”

“If you sleep on the floor you are not going to fall off the bed. Stay with the basics.”

Recipe for catching a reversal:

Ingredients: For this recipe you will need one (1) well-known or “classic” technical chart pattern on a daily time frame, preferably near the high or low of the mid-term price range. When your pattern of choice has been observed, you will then need to collect at least two (2) or more instances of public expressions of sentiment which confirm the prognostication of said pattern: pre- or post-market media bytes, business news website headlines, confident/fearful declarations on your favorite trading forum, or any other variety of before-the-fact assumption.

Preparation: When the above ingredients have been secured, wait for a daily close which would confirm “ripeness” of the pattern. Next morning, enter a stop order at the confirmation price in the opposite direction of pattern breakout to initiate position. If stop is triggered, immediately enter protective stop at prior low/high.

Parboiling: If market moves quickly in your favor, take profits on at least a partial portion; mentally “set aside” closed profit for re-entry if market pulls back towards initial entry price with next few days. If pullback manages to hold above prior high/low, re-enter full position at your discretion.

Cooking: Set protective stop for entire position at breakeven and let sit undisturbed for a few days or more if possible.

Presentation: Dish is ready when “failure” point of pattern is breached; serve at market or with trailing stop, whichever you prefer.

Socrates on Success

“Once A young man asked Socrates the secret of success. Socrates told the young man to meet him near the river the next morning. They met. Socrates asked the young man to walk with him into the river. When the water got up to their neck, Socrates took the young man by surprise and swiftly ducked him into the water.

The boy struggled to get out but Socrates was strong and kept him there until the boy started turning blue. Socrates pulled the boy’s head out of the water and the first thing the young man did was to gasp and take a deep breath of air.

Socrates asked him, “what did you want the most when you were there?” The boy replied, “Air”. Socrates said, “That is the secret of success! When you want success as badly as you wanted the air, then you will get it!” There is no other secret.”

Recipe for catching a reversal:

sexy-chef
Ingredients: For this recipe you will need one (1) well-known or “classic” technical chart pattern on a daily time frame, preferably near the high or low of the mid-term price range. When your pattern of choice has been observed, you will then need to collect at least two (2) or more instances of public expressions of sentiment which confirm the prognostication of said pattern: pre- or post-market media bytes, business news website headlines, confident/fearful declarations on your favorite trading forum, or any other variety of before-the-fact assumption.
Preparation: When the above ingredients have been secured, wait for a daily close which would confirm “ripeness” of the pattern. Next morning, enter a stop order at the confirmation price in the opposite direction of pattern breakout to initiate position. If stop is triggered, immediately enter protective stop at prior low/high.
Parboiling: If market moves quickly in your favor, take profits on at least a partial portion; mentally “set aside” closed profit for re-entry if market pulls back towards initial entry price with next few days. If pullback manages to hold above prior high/low, re-enter full position at your discretion. (more…)

One Liners

1. Once, all villagers decided to pray for rain, on the day of prayer all the People gathered but only one boy came with an umbrella…THAT’S FAITH
2. When you throw a baby in the air, she laughs because she knows you will catch her…THAT’S TRUST
3. Every night we go to bed, without any assurance of being alive the next Morning but still we set the alarms in our watch to wake up…THAT’S HOPE
4. We plan big things for tomorrow in spite of zero knowledge of the future or having any certainty of uncertainties…THAT’S CONFIDENCE
 
5. We see the world suffering. We know there is every possibility of same or similar things happening to us. But still we get married??..THAT’S OVER CONFIDENCE!!

Think More, React Less

Yesteraday finally watched Inception over the weekend and found it to be the most enjoyable movie so far of the summer. Of course, that’s not saying much as we continue to despise much of the garbage coming out of Hollywood these days, but we both found the movie fascinating.

One of the things in the movie that got me to thinking is the concept that when we sleep our minds keep working through problems at a higher level in order find and create solutions. I don’t know about you, but I immediately identified with this. In fact it caused me to remember something I use to do many years ago while in college  but haven’t been doing lately due to my early-morning “up at 5″ work schedule. That is, whenever I ran into a difficult impasse in my research and work, I would often spend the last 30 minutes before bed simply thinking and studying the problem I was facing. Then after going to bed while I was asleep my mind would continue working on it so that when I would awake the next morning I’d have a new angle or approach to work on.

While the process didn’t always work and sometimes resulted in an unrestful night’s sleep as I tossed and turned throughout the night, by taking time out of my day to think about a problem without distractions before bed at times did enable me to find creative solutions that seemed to work more often than not. Although I’ve done the same thing for years through daily meditation (20 minutes each and every day), I must confess I think there is something to the process of preparing your mind to work on problems while you sleep and completely free from distractions, especially if you’re faced with a particularly cumbersome or complicated challenge.

Many of you are probably not surprised to hear me say that I think time spent to concentrated thought without any distractions is something I think many traders lack these days. As all of us continued to be constantly bombarded with real-time information, I think many have become far more reactionary than “thought” driven. At some level that is ok for some strategies (like day trading for example), but it wreaks havoc on others.

It has also been my experience through working one-on-one with members in the mentorship group that most are not devoting enough “think time” in their daily routines. In my experience, the average person only takes less than 5 minutes a day (if that) to actually think through their trades, strategies, and plans. That’s not enough! Not by a long shot!

For that reason alone, mixing up your routine to enable your mind to think without distractions while you sleep may be at least something you’ll want to try. While I know from experience that I always receive dubious feedback whenever I recommend utilizing meditation and breathing techniques to help clear the mind, boost productivity, and overall performance, you may want to at least try mixing up your work schedule a little bit in order to gear and ramp up your mental state more effectively. In addition, if you’re not devoting some time every day (at least 30 minutes) free from all distractions to think about your strategies, positions, and performance, then I truly believe you are not really giving yourself the best chance for success.

The more the world speeds up and becomes even more reactionary, the more important I think it will be for those of us engaged in the markets to think more and react less.

Divine Intervention?

intervention1How do you decide when a position is too large?

I have a rule that whenever I’m still thinking about my position when I lay my head on my pillow at night, I begin liquidation the next morning. I’m hesitant to say this because it could be misconstrued: You know that I’m a praying person. If I find myself praying about a position at any time, I liquidate it immediately. That’s a sure sign of disaster. God is not a market manipulator. I knew a trader once who thought he was. He went broke – the trader, I mean.

8 MISTAKES GREAT TRADERS NEVER MAKE

  1. Try to close a position but accidentally DOUBLE it instead.
  2. Put a swing trade on and realize AFTER the close that earnings are coming soon. Like the next morning.  Before the market opens.
  3. Buy the CALLS in a stock that is breaking out at what they think is a bargain price, only to find out later that they actually bought the PUTS.
  4. Constantly drive by their ex girlfriend’s house to see if she is dating that idiot biker guy with the tats who will never love her the way they would….
  5. Knock off early for the day to go rollerblading, sure that they put a hard stop in on their position before they left (but didn’t).
  6. Continuously hit the “submit” button on their trading platform when their order “hangs up” only to find out that they bought their position eight times.
  7. Listen to the whole “Best of WHAM” album online, unaware that Spotify is auto-posting that info to their Facebook timeline.
  8. Think they have a “one cancels other” limit and stop in place and take a long lunch after their position hits it’s profit target.  Then come back later in the day only to learn that price reversed, hit their stop (making them net short), and then rallied.

Divine Intervention?

From “The New Market Wizards” by Jack Schwager, in an interview with Mark Ritchie:

How do you decide when a position is too large?
I have a rule that whenever I’m still thinking about my position when I lay my head on my pillow at night, I begin liquidation the next morning. I’m hesitant to say this because it could be misconstrued: You know that I’m a praying person. If I find myself praying about a position at any time, I liquidate it immediately. That’s a sure sign of disaster. God is not a market manipulator. I knew a trader once who thought he was. He went broke – the trader, I mean.

 
 
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