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JP Morgan on the US: “We continue to believe that a recession has begun in March”

JPM:
  • We expect unemployment to peak near 8.5%.
  • Our model of the risk of the recession beginning within one year based on the economic data jumped to 90% after the report
  • We continue to believe that a recession has begun in March
  • Additionally, the Transportation Security Administration has released daily data on the number of travellers passing through TSA checkpoints. The number of travellers was down 89% relative to last year through March 25

Global Times editor: US has turned Hong Kong into the focus of China-US competitiion

A tweet by Global Times’ editor-in-chief, Hu Xijin

“The US has turned HK into the focus of China-US competition. It’s all the people in Hong Kong, including foreigners and foreign companies that suffer. The mainland only feels limited pain. Beijing has no reason to back off on issue of sovereignty, and let HK be at US’ disposal.”

He’s making the above comment in relation to the bill that was passed by the US Senate earlier today, in which China views as interference to the situation in Hong Kong.
All this feeds into the trade rhetoric and if anything, it creates yet another potential barrier for both sides to try and get towards a “Phase One” trade deal.

Global Times editor: US tariff exemptions seen as a sign of goodwill

Tweet from Hu Xijin

The US exempts more than 400 Chinese products from tariffs, which is seen as a goodwill signal by China. Interaction of goodwill between China and the US is still fragile. Political determination from decision-making circle of the two countries is needed in order to reach a deal.
Is there going to be a deal? It’s fair to say that no one really knows but it depends on what the US is asking for from China. It’s tough to believe they will relent on everything.

Iran’s foreign minister questions US remarks: “Act of war” or “Agitation for war”?

Oil appears to be jumping on the tweet here by Zarif

The tweet reads:

“Act of war”or AGITATION for WAR?
Remnants of #B_Team (+ambitious allies) try to deceive @realdonaldtrump into war.
For their own sake, they should pray that they won’t get what they seek.
They’re still paying for much smaller #Yemen war they were too arrogant to end 4yrs ago.

Any call for war and undiplomatic resolve will up tensions in the region and keep oil prices underpinned. Trump played it down last night but it appears Iran is being more confrontational about the matter.
Oil prices are now at the highs for the day with Brent jumping nearly 2% to $64.90.
In related news, Saudi Arabia is said to have asked Iraq for 20 mil barrels of crude as Aramco seeks diesel, gasoline and fuel oil for domestic use. That could be another reason why oil prices are picking up over the past 15-20 minutes.

Trump tweets about tariffs and Fed

More of the same from Trump

Another tweet, just the regular stuff.
“China is eating the Tariffs.” Billions pouring into USA. Targeted Patriot Farmers getting massive Dollars from the incoming Tariffs! Good Jobs Numbers, No Inflation(Fed). China having worst year in decades. Talks happening, good for all!

Eurozone June final manufacturing PMI 47.6 vs 47.8 prelim

Latest data released by Markit – 1 July 2019

Slight downtick to the final release sees the overall euro area reading fall a little in June compared to the 47.7 print in May. That said, this is more or less within initial estimates so it’s not really giving much new information about the sluggish manufacturing sector in the region seen in Q2 2019.

4 Points to be Successful Traders

1) Diversify: If you have a pattern you  trade successfully, you don’t have to grow your size. Instead, look to diversify  to a different pattern (different market, different time frame) not correlated  with the first. You’ll smooth out your returns, as one pattern makes money while  the other experiences drawdown. You’ll also achieve the portfolio manager’s goal  of superior return for less risk exposure.
2) Review Entries: Review your trades for the week and see how much heat  you took on your winners. This will give you an idea of how good your entries are.
3) Review Exits: Review your trades for the week and see if the market  went in your favor or against you after you exited. This will give you an idea  of how good your exits are.
4) Work Orders: Get into the habit of working orders to buy at bid, sell  at offer or to place orders between the bid and offer to avoid paying a price  that is out of line with “fair value”. For the frequent trader, the single tick saved by good execution adds up over time.
The successful traders I’ve worked with never stop working on themselves. This is equally true of successful athletes, musicians, and chess champions. Small, steady improvements can create massively greater performance over time.

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