- We expect unemployment to peak near 8.5%.
- Our model of the risk of the recession beginning within one year based on the economic data jumped to 90% after the report
- We continue to believe that a recession has begun in March
- Additionally, the Transportation Security Administration has released daily data on the number of travellers passing through TSA checkpoints. The number of travellers was down 89% relative to last year through March 25
Archives of “musicians” tag
rssGlobal Times editor: US has turned Hong Kong into the focus of China-US competitiion
A tweet by Global Times’ editor-in-chief, Hu Xijin
“The US has turned HK into the focus of China-US competition. It’s all the people in Hong Kong, including foreigners and foreign companies that suffer. The mainland only feels limited pain. Beijing has no reason to back off on issue of sovereignty, and let HK be at US’ disposal.”
Global Times editor: US tariff exemptions seen as a sign of goodwill
Tweet from Hu Xijin
The US exempts more than 400 Chinese products from tariffs, which is seen as a goodwill signal by China. Interaction of goodwill between China and the US is still fragile. Political determination from decision-making circle of the two countries is needed in order to reach a deal.
Iran’s foreign minister questions US remarks: “Act of war” or “Agitation for war”?
Oil appears to be jumping on the tweet here by Zarif
The tweet reads:
“Act of war”or AGITATION for WAR?
Remnants of #B_Team (+ambitious allies) try to deceive @realdonaldtrump into war.
For their own sake, they should pray that they won’t get what they seek.
They’re still paying for much smaller #Yemen war they were too arrogant to end 4yrs ago.
Trump tweets about tariffs and Fed
More of the same from Trump
“China is eating the Tariffs.” Billions pouring into USA. Targeted Patriot Farmers getting massive Dollars from the incoming Tariffs! Good Jobs Numbers, No Inflation(Fed). China having worst year in decades. Talks happening, good for all!
Eurozone June final manufacturing PMI 47.6 vs 47.8 prelim
Latest data released by Markit – 1 July 2019
Slight downtick to the final release sees the overall euro area reading fall a little in June compared to the 47.7 print in May. That said, this is more or less within initial estimates so it’s not really giving much new information about the sluggish manufacturing sector in the region seen in Q2 2019.
4 Points to be Successful Traders
1) Diversify: If you have a pattern you trade successfully, you don’t have to grow your size. Instead, look to diversify to a different pattern (different market, different time frame) not correlated with the first. You’ll smooth out your returns, as one pattern makes money while the other experiences drawdown. You’ll also achieve the portfolio manager’s goal of superior return for less risk exposure.
2) Review Entries: Review your trades for the week and see how much heat you took on your winners. This will give you an idea of how good your entries are.
3) Review Exits: Review your trades for the week and see if the market went in your favor or against you after you exited. This will give you an idea of how good your exits are.
4) Work Orders: Get into the habit of working orders to buy at bid, sell at offer or to place orders between the bid and offer to avoid paying a price that is out of line with “fair value”. For the frequent trader, the single tick saved by good execution adds up over time.
The successful traders I’ve worked with never stop working on themselves. This is equally true of successful athletes, musicians, and chess champions. Small, steady improvements can create massively greater performance over time.