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Sharpen Your Trading With Occam's Razor

  
  Education
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 Would you believe that a 14th century priest, and his concepts, can help make you a better trader?  Well, English logician and Franciscan friar William of Ockham really can make you a better trader.


Ockham developed the concept commonly referred to as Occam’s Razor.  Simply put, this principle favors the simple over the complex, when there is a choice to be made, or a path to be followed.


How can this apply to trading? A few different ways.


First, if you are a system trader, perhaps your approach has too many rules, too many parameters, or too much optimizing.  While every parameter you add might make your system better historically, the more parameters you have, the less prone the system is to work going forward.  Simpler concepts and simple rules tend to be based on fundamental market principles – ones that aren’t as likely to change.


Second, if you are a discretionary trader, you might trade off of news reports from Blue Channels  and multiple other sources.  Multiple news sources might give you more data, but does it really give you more knowledge?  You might find that with multiple, conflicting pieces of information, you actually can’t trade at all – rather, you are a victim of “analysis paralysis.”


Third, maybe your trading office looks like the control room for the Space Shuttle. If you try to trade off all of the information shown on all the screens, you might just find yourself overwhelmed.  It is better to stick to a few monitors of information, and know that information very well.  The best traders don’t need a dozen monitors to trade well – usually 1 or 2 monitors is plenty.


Many new traders tend to think that that more complicated they make trading, the easier it will be to “solve” the markets.  Instead, they should be listening to William of Ockham, and making things simpler.  Simple, done correctly, can lead to more profits, and stand the test of time better than complicated approaches.

Larry Fink’s $12 Trillion Shadow

  
Analysis, Economy, Education
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Though few Americans know his name, Larry Fink may be the most powerful man in the post-bailout economy. His giant BlackRock money-management firm controls or monitors more than $12 trillion worldwide—including the balance sheets of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and the toxic A.I.G. and Bear Stearns assets taken over by the U.S. government last year. How did Fink rebound from a humiliating failure to become the financial fulcrum of Washington and Wall Street? Through a series of interviews, the author probes his role in the crisis, his unique risk-assessment system, and the growing concern he inspires.

Worth Reading ,Just click here

Trading Losses

  
  Education
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Those who have chosen this very unique career of “trader” face a mountain of challenges each day based on ever-changing market conditions. Added to the market challenges are emotions, which can be 90% of the game. You can have a great method, strategy and be taught by the best, but if fear, apprehension or hesitation come up the trader won’t take the trade…..this is an emotional block. All successful and experienced traders learn quickly to become the masters of their emotions. To accept and manage their weaknesses and leverage their strengths.

At first most traders start by researching and determining a method to trade. They do little to emotionally prepare for what’s to come. Yet they quickly find out that their emotions come into play early on, especially if they experience immediate losses. Losing money coupled with one’s own emotional “baggage” can impact the minds thought process and outcome.
My work focuses on the power of the mind and in particular the power of thought. These three problems and solutions do too. Nothing happens without the some form of thought, be it sub-conscience or conscience. After all, isn’t this what we’re left with when sitting in front of our monitors trading? What comes into our minds, as we trade can be avalanches of different thoughts. These thoughts then have the ability to assist us and add to our success or become our worst nightmares resulting in multiple losses.

Traders over time, come to the realization that trading will force them to face ALL their old and current emotional baggage and blocks. And that NOT being able to manage or “dump” the baggage, can hit the bottom line quickly.
When a trader’s plan doesn’t work they tend to blame it on the method, when in reality it usually comes down to an emotion causing them to react inappropriately. We can pick up automatic emotional blocks that prevent us from implementing a method effectively. Many try to get over these emotions on their own, but few master the changes needed.

But lets get specific and to the heart of these three trading problems. The first reason traders lose may seem obvious but in reality it stems from long term social conditioning. It’s their inability to ACCEPT LOSS. Losing generates powerful emotions, such as fear, uncertainty, apprehension, and self-doubt especially with men. And while women today can also be as affected, the data is supported mostly by men as they represent a larger portion of the client base.

Men are socially conditioned to succeed from the time they enter the world. From little boys being read, “The Little Train That Could” to the environments that surround them as they grow up. They are guided to be become achievers. Influenced by family, friends, education, and career environments they are encouraged to seek professions of Doctors, Lawyers, and Bankers. Images and social metaphors reinforce them. Striving to be right, number one, the breadwinner, and the best, always seeking perfectionism. They are socially conditioned to be the family providers. Add to this various cultural pressures and demands and men have a built-in fundamental obligation to succeed. (more…)

Day Trading Mistakes

  
  Education
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There are some major day trading mistakes that just about every new trader will make early on in their career.  The ones who survive are those who can recognize these mistakes and take corrective action.

The first mistake many day traders make is to skip the planning phase of the day or a trade.  Every day you sit down in front of your monitors you should have a general plan for the day.  You should understand the major trends and support/resistance of the major indices, and the stocks you plan on trading.  In addition to that, once you see your stock setting up for a trade you should have a plan that includes an entry, a target and a stop-loss before you even pull the trigger on the trade.

Another mistake that we often see in day trading is the inability to exit on a losing trade.  If you have issues with getting out of the market when your pre-planned loss has been hit on your own, try using stop-loss orders.  Never. Never ever ever move a stop loss order once it’s been placed.  This requires some discipline but it will save you tons of money in the long run.  You should never be hoping that your stock will turn around, and go where you expected.  You should be executing your plan to the letter.

On a similar note, you also never want to move your targets.  If you keep moving your target away from the stock’s current price, you’re never going to take your profits.  A typical day trading exit strategy is to take profits at predetermined levels as you proceed into green territory.  This means that before you’ve entered the trade you’ve chosen two or more targets.  You exit a portion of your trade at each target.  Now, if you think your stock is going to trend for the day, you can plan for that too.  This is called a trade-to-hold.  It doesn’t mean you move your target, but rather you try to stay in the trend by setting a trailing stop.  A trailing stop can either be automatically set at a certain percentage or point value behind the stock price, or you can mechanically keep moving your stop loss up to obvious points of resistance or support behind your trending stock. (more…)

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