“At the end of each trading day (week) you shouldn’t focus solely on your P/L. Instead, focus on your thought process during the day and how well you executed your plan. If you consistently execute your trades according to plan and still lose money, then you need to reevaluate your approach. While there is definitely a cyclical rhythm to the market, no strategy will always work. You need to constantly and objectively review what is working and what is not so you can make necessary adjustments to you plan.”
Archives of “money” tag
rssLessons Learned
“So far in 2009, what are the the most important thing I had learned about investing, trading, and/or the markets?”
Success takes longer than expected
- That you must learn to trade and trust yourself and not to become so dependent on the opinions of others, which ultimately keeps you from becoming the best you can be
- Keep it simple
- The very best profit opportunities occur in the midst of extreme emotional sentiment
- Always think opportunistic verses too bullish or bearish
- Persistence and dedication to a daily routine is key
- Developing an edge is the first step for trading successfully. Without that, disciplined trading will only make sure you gradually losing money
- The market is one unforgiving bitch!
- It is challenging to find non-correlated markets
- You have to respect the market even if you think it is under some kind of manipulation
- Keep your eyes open and powder dry
- If you fall in love with a stock keep 100 shares and let the rest go
- I’ve learned to be patient in waiting for my patterns to appear
- The value of ETFs
- The importance of finding special situations that will be profitable no matter what the market does
- Stay away from light volume when the only thing trading is the black boxes
- The importance of focusing only on one technical setup in order to improve one’s skill set
- I now think that buy and hold is a serious mistake
- Think big and think long term
- Don’t try to predict the markets
- Don’t be afraid in bear markets, just another opportunity
- The odds are stacked against the retail investor
- There’s no such thing as a sure thing
- The harder I work at it the more likely I am to succeed
- Conserving one’s capital is vital
- I know the rules – I just need to notch-up my discipline
- Smaller entry positions can be helpful
- Opportunities are everywhere
- The market is primarily psychologically driven
- Trade with the trend instead of trying to pick tops and bottoms
- Know where and when to get out before you get in
- As Johny Cash put it “You got to walk that lonesome valley, you got walk it by yourself. Nobody else can walk it for you. You got to walk it by yourself.”
- The difficulty of avoiding over-optimization/curve fitting
- Overtrading can be, and often is, a recipe for disaster
- To breathe before executing a trade
- Trading is not a profession for pessimists
- Never feel confident even when winning. Humility is a good thing
- You need to be quick and brutal with the trading decisions
- It is okay to sit out a potential move – risk management over reward chasing
- Don’t bet the farm in either direction
- There is no consistent logic to trading the market
- Some trades need to be taken when they appear, not just when you are ready
- There’s no rule that quality stocks must go up
- Don’t chase any overbought stocks
- When a sector (like financials) look so hopeless as it did in March there is potential to make a lot of money if things turn around even just a little
- Hope is a four-letter word and has no place in a trading strategy
- Patience. It is ok to sit out once in awhile
- Wait until you have an proven strategy supported by data before trading for keeps
Anything can happen. Trading is all about probabilities
Technically Yours-ANIRUDH SETHI ,BARODA ,INDIA
Being prepared
Make a list of everything that can go wrong and determine how you will respond to that situation. That will be the key to your success – knowing how to respond to the unexpected.”
Ask 3 essential questions:
1. Why am I taking this particular trade? ( is it part of carefully prepared plan, or is it an emotional reaction; what is the catalyst behind the move and does it have the potential to sent the stock’s price higher; are there other better trading alternatives for my money)
2. What if a am wrong? (figure out where and when I will exit, before I initiate the trade; where is my stop loss and does it makes sense to be put there; how much am I risking? How am I going to protect my capital against “unexpected” gaps)
3. What if I am right? (how am I going to protect my profits; where I would exit and why)
Remember that good trading is all about managing risk. If you are entering a position without knowing where you are getting out when you’re wrong, then you’re sunk before you begin.
Do You want to Win or Lose at Trading?
There are things that make you win in the stock market over the long term and then there are things that make you lose quickly even in the short term. The key to trading success is learning the difference quickly and doing what really works not what you emotions or opinions tell you to do.
If you want to win then you must create your own trading plan and follow it, if you want to lose just trade whatever you want whenever you want based on your own opinion.
If you want to win then you must control your risk carefully with only 1% or 2% of your capital at stake in every individual trade, if you want to lose then just trade huge position sizes, put all your chips on the table.
If you want to win plan your entries and exits before you enter a trade then follow them, if you want to lose ask for everyone’s opinion and just make decisions based on other people.
If you want to win cut your losses short and let your winners run, if you want to lose hold your losers and hope that they come back and sell your winners quickly to lock in gains.
If you want to win trade only the best high quality stocks in the market, if you want to lose trade the junk and hope for a miracle come back.
If you want to win then build complete confidence for your system through chart studies and back testing, if you want to lose trade with no idea of if what you are doing even works.
If you want to win go with the current trend of the market, if you want to lose fight the trend and trade against it.
If you want to win then go long the hottest stocks in a bull market, if you want to lose short the hottest stocks in a bull market.
Do what makes money not what you feel like doing.
Poker/Trading Similarities
Actual winning/losing of a trade is unimportant. 4 Rules for Traders
1. Average Winners Not Losers. It is not “don’t frown, average down”; it is applying the discipline to cut losers short and adding to winners that separates the successful from the unsuccessful. If you have a winning stock then add to it. If you have a losing stock then get rid of it.
2. Never Let a Winner Turn Into A Loser. Greed is the cause of this mistake. Let the market tell you when to exit a trade, not whether you have a profit or not. “If your trade is acting well, as defined by key indicators, and the market activity is supporting your position, stay in. If not, its go time!” Do not let a good profit vanish into thin air because you want more than the market is willing to give.
3. Never Mix Disciplines. If you day trade then day trade and do not let a day trade turn into a swing trade. If you swing trade do not let your swing trade turn into an investment. Follow the rules based on the discipline of your time frame.
4. Never Try To Trade Back A loser. In other words, each trade is a new one and should not be used to win back money lost in the last trade. Always trade in the present not in the past where too many emotional and psychology factors can affect the current trade. Revenge does not pay in or out of the market.
Patience, Preparation and Performance
Everything is difficult before it becomes easy.
With the current volatility of the financial markets, it is extremely important that each of us resolve to be patient in our decisions and not make snap judgments. These can create future disaster.
The most successful individuals around the world have a foundation of processes that they utilize consistently, no matter whether the markets are trending with clear direction or being extremely volatile.
Each of us needs to be patient and allow the trading plans that we use to provide points of execution for trades. We need to be prepared for any and all movements in the market, yet stay committed to our plan and then perform with a self-confidence that ensures that we do not stray away from the steps of our plan.
Patience, preparation and performance surrounded by a solid trading plan along with money and risk management will produce the highest probability for profitable success.
Preparation combined with Opportunity creates a new word I would like to give to you — Prepartunity. Every day provides new opportunities for us. If we are prepared then we will receive the highest results possible.
Did You Know
Know that the market never lies.I have met so many liars in the stock market business over the past 15 years. I think that many of them actually believe what they are saying but, the truth is, people’s judgment is clouded by greed.The stock market is a giant polling mechanism allowing people to cast their opinion with their money. If you think the stock market is going up, you buy. If you are right, you make money. It is a simple and powerful machine that determines value and, since no one wants to lose money, it is very efficient at telling the truth.The truth may change from one moment to the next but one thing will not change. Arguing against the market is a fast way to lose money.
Four things traders can try to get Success
Trust your gut If something looks like crap and smells like crap, then chances are, it is crap. Listen more to your gut to tell you when to cut a loss and move on. - Keep it simple If something is working, keep doing it. There aren’t any bonus points for being clever. The money is the same color no matter how you make it. So do the simple things and chip away at the profits. I once had a client who felt he had to do complicated trades in order to make money. Bottom line was, he was wrong. Keeping it simple is the proven strategy for success.
- Probabilities don’t lie If you’re not carefully tracking the metrics on your trades, you might as well be gambling at a casino. Make it a point to track the data on your trades and study them. That way, you can do more of what’s working and less of what’s not.
- Avoid speculating and predicting I can’t begin to tell you how many times I see traders blow up their accounts because they try to speculate or predict what’s going to happen in the future. The simple fact is, no one knows. Even the best traders have a winning percentage of around 50 percent. That means successful trading is not about being right, it’s about what you do when you’re wrong. The bottom line is, trade what you see, not what you think.
Trust your gut If something looks like crap and smells like crap, then chances are, it is crap. Listen more to your gut to tell you when to cut a loss and move on. 13 Things- Learned About Humans and the Financial Markets
- Predictions do not work as tomorrow is uncertain. We will only boast about things we have predicted right and talk nothing about the other half we got wrong.
- Skills can bring us moderate success. However, luck is needed to be a big success. (credit to Jon)
- We tend to credit our successes to good skills and blame our failures on poor luck.
- Some of us rely on luck (most unknowingly) by investing for high returns (and losses). A few of us will make big money but most of us will end up much poorer.
- Some of us deliberately limit the luck factor by choosing investment products with capital guarantee and guaranteed returns. None of us will make big money but none of us will be very much poorer.
- We need to know how much we can afford to lose (financially and emotionally) before deciding to be No. 4 or No. 5, or somewhere in between.
- We have many biases. The degree of success in investing or trading depends on how much we can keep our biases in check. No, we cannot remove our biases totally.
- Confirmation bias – we see what we want to see. We seek out evidence to validate our investment decision and ignore those that suggest otherwise.
- Availability bias – we are influenced by the things we observe. If people we knew made a lot of money through property investment, we will think that properties are the best investments in the world and develop a preference for it.
- Loss aversion bias – we want to be compensated for high returns before we decide to take the risk to invest. We often wait for markets move and show high returns before we want to invest. We are not interested if markets are not moving.
- Hindsight bias – we tend to say “I knew it” after an event has happened.
- Survivor-ship bias – we only get to hear stories of successes but many stories of failures were untold. See No 2 and No 3.
- Most us do not know what we want in life. We think we will be happier with more money.