Trader know thyself, know who you are, the trading method that fits your personality and risk tolerance and become a master of that method. Do not wander around when it gets tough, be faithful to your edge. Be the best that you can be at what you are whether you are a day trader, trend follower, option trader, momentum trader, chart reader, technical analyst, or fundamentalist. I know of traders that got reach with any of these methods but do not know any that got rich trading multiple methods. Pick one, master one.
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rssTen Times When A Trader Should do Nothing
Ten Times When A Trader Should do Nothing
- When you are confused and don’t know what to do, do nothing.
- There are no set ups on your watch list, then don’t trade.
- You are a trend trader and there is no trend to trade.
- The market is extremely volatile due to headline risk.
- You want to make an option trade but the options are illiquid with a huge bid ask spread.
- If you are trying to trade supply and demand but the government keeps interfering with your market, pick a different market.
- Your stock reports earnings the next day and you expect a powerful move but it could easily go either way, wait until after earnings to trade.
- You are a momentum trader but their is not momentum, then wait.
- You play the long side only and the market is in a correction or a bear market, wait for a new trend to the upside.
- If you are not at your best mentally and emotionally then don’t trade until you are.
Quotes by Paul Tudor Jones II
Paul Tudor Jones II is one of the most successful hedge fund managers. He has never suffered a losing year. His fund has returned 23% annualized gain since its inception in 1986. Paul Tudor is a momentum trader, who believes that price move and trend unfold only because of investors’ behavior.
Markets have consistently experienced “100-year events” every five years. While I spend a significant amount of my time on analytics and collecting fundamental information, at the end of the day, I am a slave to the tape and proud of it.
I see the younger generation hampered by the need to understand and rationalize why something should go up or down. Usually, by the time that becomes self-evident, the move is already over.
There is no training — classroom or otherwise — that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether it’s the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market. There’s typically no logic to it; irrationality reigns supreme, and no class can teach what to do during that brief, volatile reign. The only way to learn how to trade during that last, exquisite third of a move is to do it, or, more precisely, live it.
Fundamentals might be good for the first third or first 50 or 60 percent of a move, but the last third of a great bull market is typically a blow-off, whereas the mania runs wild and prices go parabolic.
Quotes by Paul Tudor Jones II
Paul Tudor Jones II is one of the most successful hedge fund managers. He has never suffered a losing year. His fund has returned 23% annualized gain since its inception in 1986. Paul Tudor is a momentum trader, who believes that price move and trend unfold only because of investors’ behavior. Markets have consistently experienced “100-year events” every five years. While I spend a significant amount of my time on analytics and collecting fundamental information, at the end of the day, I am a slave to the tape and proud of it. I see the younger generation hampered by the need to understand and rationalize why something should go up or down. Usually, by the time that becomes self-evident, the move is already over. There is no training — classroom or otherwise — that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether it’s the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market. There’s typically no logic to it; irrationality reigns supreme, and no class can teach what to do during that brief, volatile reign. The only way to learn how to trade during that last, exquisite third of a move is to do it, or, more precisely, live it. Fundamentals might be good for the first third or first 50 or 60 percent of a move, but the last third of a great bull market is typically a blow-off, whereas the mania runs wild and prices go parabolic. |
Ten Times When A Trader Should do Nothing
- When you are confused and don’t know what to do, do nothing.
- There are no set ups on your watch list, then don’t trade.
- You are a trend trader and there is no trend to trade.
- The market is extremely volatile due to headline risk.
- You want to make an option trade but the options are illiquid with a huge bid ask spread.
- If you are trying to trade supply and demand but the government keeps interfering with your market, pick a different market.
- Your stock reports earnings the next day and you expect a powerful move but it could easily go either way, wait until after earnings to trade.
- You are a momentum trader but their is not momentum, then wait.
- You play the long side only and the market is in a correction or a bear market, wait for a new trend to the upside.
- If you are not at your best mentally and emotionally then don’t trade until you are.
Predictions vs. Expectations
There are two VERY DIFFERENT terms to consider when it comes to trading: 1) Prediction and 2) expectation (or confidence) surrounding the prediction.
Placing a trade involves making a prediction. It is not possible to place a trade without making a prediction, and that is true even for trades that might or might not execute, such as those placed using a stop order or limit order, for example.
Every trader who places a trade does so because the trader believes there is some chance, greater than 0%, that the trade will be beneficial, perhaps based on historical probability (back testing) perhaps based on intuition (years of trading experience) perhaps based on hopes and prayers or possibly based on nothing more than a need to gamble. Whatever the basis, there must be SOME chance to benefit or else the trader would not entertain it. The trader predicts he or she will benefit, or else the trader does not enter a trade order.
No matter what the prediction may be, so long as the EXPECTATIONS for the prediction are based in reality, there is nothing inherently wrong with making a prediction. As long as a trader accepts a 30% win rate, for example, and makes allowances accordingly, there is nothing wrong with taking such a trade. The same is true for trades with 50/50 odds, as long as the trader properly predicts, expects, and is prepared for 50% failures; which is why it is possible to flip a coin and still be successful.
Many successful traders may say they never predict, when what they may really mean is that they never EXPECT their prediction to come true. Thus they may say things like “I only react” when more accurately they are reacting… to a failed prediction. For, it is virtually impossible to trade without predicting. So, I say to all you new traders out there “Don’t be afraid to predict. Just know how likely it is that you’ll be wrong, and know what to do when your prediction fails!”