Archives of “irrationality” tag

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Conquering Your Fear

  
Analysis, Education
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So, what can you do about the fear that keeps you from following your trading plan and maintaining your commitments? How to overcome fear that keeps you from following your trading plan. Well, let’s begin with what causes fear.  Fear stems from a perceived threat that may or may not be real. Threat begins as a perception and a thought.  In other words, when we have interpreted that an event is threatening our physical, mental, emotional, social or spiritual well-being we have given that event a meaning.  Now, meaning is a crucial process that controls not only what you perceive but how you perceive it. For example, that price action is moving toward my stop and that means that I’m going to lose in this trade (the movement of the price action may or may not take you out and at this point it is only an opinion but it is often treated as a fact).  In other words, the meaning here would be activated by a limiting or irrational belief about the inevitability of losing, and this in turn would prompt another limiting belief about what that says about you; i.e., “I’m a very poor trader and a loser because my stop loss was hit.”  It often continues to spiral downward from there.  So, what you are thinking is the genesis of the emotion that you experience…the fear.

Secondly, fear determines what you choose to do.  This is where you become immobilized or act in erratic illogical ways that increase your risk and destroy your desired results.  At this point it is important that you identify the thinking/beliefs that are fuelling the fear.  Here is an important question to ask; “What must I be telling myself or believing to feel this fear.”  This introspective inquiry will help you ferret out the underlying fear based programming that created that belief and in-turn developed the fear response in the first place. (more…)

Emotions In Trading -Anirudh Sethi

  
Analysis, Education
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For many traders emotional trading is a problem and it stops them from being consistent in the market. We see what causes emotional trading in this article and I share six steps to greatly help reduce it, or stop it entirely.

Emotions in trading have always been one of the main causes of losses, and at the same time − the main driving force for all types of money. Remember the classic idea: buyers push the price up because of greed, and sellers sell because of fear of losses?

It still works perfectly in any market.

Popular training materials on market trading almost do not pay attention to managing emotions. This is understandable: any broker is the first participant in the trading process, which is vitally interested in having you leave your deposit to the market.

That is why most newcomers, especially those who passed the super-fast and super effective training in various brokerage kitchens, remain psychologically unprepared for trading. And even good technical training will not help such players save their money.

Assessing and reacting to market risk is one of the most important things you’ll have to do as a trader. Sadly, human being as a whole are so mediocre at this task, investors and traders reliably make decisions that economists consider “irrational.”

So obviously these are commonly more referred to as emotional trading.

 

Six Steps to Help You Stop Emotional Trading

Financial markets are a by-product of modern era and, in the grand scheme of things, our brains have evolved over millions of years for survival out in the open. They haven’t had the time to get good at making sound and perfectly rational financial decisions.

We have brain processes; an emotional one and a logical one that are constantly competing against one another for our future expression in the market. And normally, for the trader that has little to no market experience, who trades money they can’t afford to lose, or who has a short fuse overall, the stage is set for an incident.

But also more seasoned traders tend to make emotional trading decisions that they consider stupid in hindsight. Perhaps less often than inexperienced traders do, and with minor consequences, but those errors do happen.

Many a times, although we know with the logical part of our brain that we will get better results if we follow our trading rules, so many of us do exactly the opposite, despite clear knowledge of what we should do.

We remove stops, we cut winners short, we go in with too big of a size… I mean, we’re clearly

not purely rational beings ― and we can’t be because that would make us robots, not humans.

(more…)

Loss Aversion

  
  Education
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There’s a short Danny Kahneman interview at the Daily Beast here.  He notes why your best friends may not be your best advisors:

 Friends are sometimes a big help when they share your feelings. In the context of decisions, the friends who will serve you best are those who understand your feelings but are not overly impressed by them. 

 That’s the Kahneman I love to read, profound and interesting. But then he follows with this sentence:

For example, one important source of bad decisions is loss aversion, by which we put far more weight on what we may lose than on what we may gain.  (more…)

For Ongoing Phase…

  
  Education
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There is no trading – classroom or otherwise – that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether is the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market. There is typically no logic to it; irrationality reigns supreme, and no class can teach what to do during that brief volatile time. The only way to learn how to trade during that last third of a move is to do it, more precisely, live it.

All bubbles tend to reach extremes not expected by most people.

Market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

You can go broke by being right. Have an entry and exit strategy.

20 Trading Insights from Paul Tudor Jones

  
  Education
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paultudor1. Markets have consistently experienced “100-year events” every five years. While I spend a significant amount of my time on analytics and collecting fundamental information, at the end of the day, I am a slave to the tape and proud of it.

2. I see the younger generation hampered by the need to understand and rationalize why something should go up or down. Usually, by the time that becomes self-evident, the move is already over.

3. When I got into the business, there was so little information on fundamentals, and what little information one could get was largely imperfect. We learned just to go with the chart. Why work when Mr. Market can do it for you?

4. These days, there are many more deep intellectuals in the business, and that, coupled with the explosion of information on the Internet, creates an illusion that there is an explanation for everything and that the primary test is simply to find that explanation. As a result, technical analysis is at the bottom of the study list for many of the younger generation, particularly since the skill often requires them to close their eyes and trust price action. The pain of gain is just too overwhelming to bear.

5. There is no training — classroom or otherwise — that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether it’s the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market. There’s typically no logic to it; irrationality reigns supreme, and no class can teach what to do during that brief, volatile reign. The only way to learn how to trade during that last, exquisite third of a move is to do it, or, more precisely, live it.

6. Fundamentals might be good for the first third or first 50 or 60 percent of a move, but the last third of a great bull market is typically a blow-off, whereas the mania runs wild and prices go parabolic.

7. That cotton trade was almost the deal breaker for me. It was at that point that I said, ‘Mr. Stupid, why risk everything on one trade? Why not make your life a pursuit of happiness rather than pain?’

8. If I have positions going against me, I get right out; if they are going for me, I keep them… Risk control is the most important thing in trading. If you have a losing position that is making you uncomfortable, the solution is very simple: Get out, because you can always get back in.

9. Losers average down losers

10. The concept of paying one-hundred-and-something times earnings for any company for me is just anathema. Having said that, at the end of the day, your job is to buy what goes up and to sell what goes down so really who gives a damn about PE’s? (more…)

Quotes by Paul Tudor Jones II

  
  Education
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Paul Tudor Jones II is one of the most successful hedge fund managers. He has never suffered a losing year. His fund has returned 23% annualized gain since its inception in 1986. Paul Tudor is a momentum trader, who believes that price move and trend unfold only because of investors’ behavior.

Markets have consistently experienced “100-year events” every five years. While I spend a significant amount of my time on analytics and collecting fundamental information, at the end of the day, I am a slave to the tape and proud of it.

I see the younger generation hampered by the need to understand and rationalize why something should go up or down. Usually, by the time that becomes self-evident, the move is already over.

There is no training — classroom or otherwise — that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether it’s the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market. There’s typically no logic to it; irrationality reigns supreme, and no class can teach what to do during that brief, volatile reign. The only way to learn how to trade during that last, exquisite third of a move is to do it, or, more precisely, live it.

Fundamentals might be good for the first third or first 50 or 60 percent of a move, but the last third of a great bull market is typically a blow-off, whereas the mania runs wild and prices go parabolic.

Quotes by Paul Tudor Jones II

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

Paul Tudor Jones II is one of the most successful hedge fund managers. He has never suffered a losing year. His fund has returned 23% annualized gain since its inception in 1986. Paul Tudor is a momentum trader, who believes that price move and trend unfold only because of investors’ behavior.

Markets have consistently experienced “100-year events” every five years. While I spend a significant amount of my time on analytics and collecting fundamental information, at the end of the day, I am a slave to the tape and proud of it.

I see the younger generation hampered by the need to understand and rationalize why something should go up or down. Usually, by the time that becomes self-evident, the move is already over.

There is no training — classroom or otherwise — that can prepare for trading the last third of a move, whether it’s the end of a bull market or the end of a bear market. There’s typically no logic to it; irrationality reigns supreme, and no class can teach what to do during that brief, volatile reign. The only way to learn how to trade during that last, exquisite third of a move is to do it, or, more precisely, live it.

Fundamentals might be good for the first third or first 50 or 60 percent of a move, but the last third of a great bull market is typically a blow-off, whereas the mania runs wild and prices go parabolic.

Zero is Bottom

  
  Education
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The markets have a clearly defined Zero-value. This has several important implications. First, traders often discount the possibility of something becoming absolutely worthless (i.e. going to zero), so the more the price goes down, the greater the traders’ tendency is to believe that it has a higher probability of going up again; therefore the temptation to catch the bottom and go long becomes compelling (despite its irrationality). Traders must realize that how they are hardwired to think as people is not necessarily the way they should think as a trader. There is a reason why 90% of people who attempt to make a living as a trader end up failing and it is not because of intelligence, information, technology or effort. In a nutshell, I believe failure in trading is because of a lack of self-awareness. The solution is to compartmentalize your thinking. When you are interacting in society or at home, let yourself think like a person; but when you sit down to trade, you need to think objectively by evaluating risk/reward as a trader should.

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