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Book Review : All About Market Timing, 2d ed.

  
Analysis, Education
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“If you were in a leaking boat,” Leslie N. Masonson writes, “you’d have three choices: 1. Stay in the boat and stop the leak = Go short. 2. Get out of the boat = Switch to cash. 3. Go down with the ship = Buy-and-hold.” (p. 60) In this second edition of All About Market Timing: The Easy Way to Get Started (McGraw-Hill, 2011) Masonson explains why market timing is superior to buy-and-hold and describes some timing strategies that have been profitable in the past.

Most people, I assume, would prefer market timing to buy-and-hold—if it really were a viable strategy. The main argument against timing is that it can’t be done. The investor will end up being out of the market on the best days, in on the worst days, and poorer for his efforts. Better just sit there, say the critics, take your lumps in bear markets, and trust that the market will eventually power ahead, taking you along with it. Unfortunately the market can be very slow to recuperate from downdrafts, as the author documents in several tables.

Masonson presents five familiar market timing strategies: the best six months, presidential cycles combined with seasonality, simple moving averages, the Value Line 3 and 4 percent, and the Nasdaq Composite 6 percent. These strategies are best pursued using ETFs rather than individual stocks or mutual funds. (more…)

3 Dos and Don’ts Most Traders Learn the Hard Way from Market Wizard Mark Minervini

  
  Education
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The following article is an excerpt from Trade Like a Stock Market Wizard: How to Achieve Super Performance in Stocks in Any Market by Mark Minervini with permission from McGraw Hill Publishing.

How to Handle a Losing Streak

A losing streak usually means it’s time for an assessment. If you find yourself getting stopped out of your positions over and over, there can only be two things wrong:

1. Your stock selection criteria are flawed.

2. The general market environment is hostile.

Broad losses across your portfolio after a winning record could signal an approaching correction in a bull market or the advent of a bear market. Leading stocks often break down before the general market declines. If you’re using sound criteria with regard to fundamentals and timing, your stock picks should work for you, but if the market is entering a correction or a bear market, even good selection criteria can show poor results. It’s not time to buy; it’s time to sell or even possibly go short. Keep yourself in tune with your portfolio, and when you start experiencing abnormal behavior, watch out. Jesse Livermore said, “I’m never afraid of normal behavior but abnormal behavior.” (more…)

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