Archives of “mass media” tag

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Bank of Japan’s Kuroda on the wires

  
Analysis, Politics
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Via Reuters

Kuroda
  • BOJ will ease without hesitation if chance that economy may lose momentum for achieving price goal heightens
  • Economy sustaining momentum for hitting BoJ’s price goal
  • BoJ must pay more attention than before to heightening risks, particular focus in on the output gap
  • If Oil prices continue to fall and clearly push down Japan’s inflation, that could impact inflation expectations
  • No preconception on what policy decision will be made in October
  • Investors risk aversion easing somewhat due to progress in US-China trade negotiations
  • BoJ can combine, enhance tools which are rate cuts increase in asset buying and acceleration of base money
  • Excessive fall in super-long yields could hurt consumer sentiment by lowering returns of pension, insurance funds
  • Our policy is stimulating economy, but increased scrutiny is needed on cost of prolonged ultra low rate environment
  • Overseas economic slowdown yet to affect Japan’s domestic demand
No hints on whether more QE is coming for October, which is what would have weakened JPY further on the current change in sentiment with China waiving some soybean tariffs.
Interesting line about scrutiny on ultra low rate environment. We are starting to see a move away from monetary policy towards fiscal policy. I think it is reasonable expect this to be the next driver in the FX markets now if conditions remain in an ultra low interest environment.

Japan – Reuters Tankan report – manufacturing index hits lowest since 2013

  
  Analysis
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Reuters Tankan shows Japan manufacturers index -4 in August vs +3 in Jul.y

  • lowest reading since April 2013
  • and this is the first negative reading for the index in over 6 years

Non-manufacturers index +13 in August vs +25 in July

Manufacturers November index seen at +3, non-manufacturers seen unchanged

Commentary via Reuters …nails it:
  • Concerns about weakening global demand intensified
  • growing risk of a U.S. recession
  • Germany’s economy in contraction
  • China’s economy was worsening
  • further soured the outlook for export-reliant economies such as Japan’s
More:
  • “The U.S.-China trade war, Japan’s export curbs to South Korea and the recent yen rises have formed a bottleneck for sales” 
  • “The selling price remains in a downtrend due to expansion of e-commerce markets, while a scheduled sales tax hike keep shoppers on guard against price increases”
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The Reuters monthly poll, tracks the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) tankan quarterly survey
  • conducted July 31-Aug 14
  • total of 258 firms responded

FOMC meeting next week – most expect a rate cut but there are still a couple of holdouts

  
  Analysis
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Reuters polling of 111 economist on what they expect from the fres Federal Reserve on July 31:

  • 95% predict a 25 basis point cut
  • Two of the 111 said it’d be 50bps
  • Two said Fed to remain on hold
Reuters add a good point from Capital Economics:
  • “The biggest reason for the Fed to cut rates is because it has been priced into the markets for a while now. If they didn’t follow through and cut, it would cause a bit of a shock” 
It would be bedlam in the stock market I reckon, yep
Anyway, more:
  • “I think the recent general message from the Fed seems to be that it’s more about downside risks to growth rather than the economy being already weak” 
Reuters polling of 111 economist on what they expect from the fres Federal Reserve on July 31:

US tariffs news – to impose levies on structural steel from China and Mexico, but not from Canada

  
  Analysis
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Update crossing news wires

via Reuters:

The U.S. Commerce Department said on Monday that domestic producers were being harmed by imports of fabricated structural steel from China and Mexico and it will instruct Customs and Border Protection to collect cash deposits from importers of such steel.

The Commerce Department said it had found that imports from Canada were not being unfairly subsidized.

US Media Hits Record High, As CNBC Viewership Drops To Multi-Year Low

  
Analysis, Education
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In today’s “less than surprising data point” category, the clear winner is Gallup’s analysis of people’s ever increasing distrust in the mass media. From 46% in 1998, the percentage of people who indicate they have “not very much/none at all” trust in mass media has grown to a stunning 57% currently. This is an all time record, as the general public perception toward the MSM has flipped over the past decade. Is it becoming increasingly more difficult to lie to the average American? In this time of unprecedented economic upheaval, where the political regime depends on just how far any given administration’s lies can penetrate amongst the broader population, this may well become the most critical factor in determining policy for the future. And with ever increasing alternatives of non-traditional media, could the legacy ad-supported media model, which by definition is one which espouses the status quo, be doomed precisely by the slow but steady education of the average American, who intuitively realizes that nearly every “fact” appearing in the media, especially that supported by any given political party, is a lie?

From Gallup’s study on media distrust:

 
 

For the fourth straight year, the majority of Americans say they have little or no trust in the mass media to report the news fully, accurately, and fairly. The 57% who now say this is a record high by one percentage point.

The 43% of Americans who, in Gallup’s annual Governance poll, conducted Sept. 13-16, 2010, express a great deal or fair amount of trust ties the record low, and is far worse than three prior Gallup readings on this measure from the 1970s. (more…)

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