Archives of “market expectations” tag

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A Trade or a Gamble?

  
  Education
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I love to trade a lot – which is of course a euphemistic way of saying I love to gamble. Although I have been to Vegas more than a dozen times I never laid down so much as a dollar bet in any casino. I have absolutely no interest in backjack, craps, slot machines or any other games of chance and I look down with disdain at the excited masses crowding the cavernous Vegas gambling halls. But deep down, if I am honest with myself, I have to admit that whenever I trade a lot I am just as much of a sucker as every hopeless loser that gives up his hard earned money to Steve Wynn or Sheldon Adelson

If you are constantly trading just for the sake of trading, just for the rush of being “in the game”, just for the momentarily thrill of being right you are gambling. You are trading without an edge, without any solid information and are therefore completely vulnerable to the random vagaries of price. (more…)

RBI hikes CRR by 75 bps; repo rates untouched

  
Analysis, Education
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RBI GOVERNER

The Reserve Bank of India, in its Monetary Policy review today has hiked the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) by 75 basis points (bps) to 5.75 per cent, while holding the repo and reverse repo rates steady in line with market expectations.

The CRR hike will be done in two tranches. The first one will be for 50 bps with effect from February 13, 2010, and the balance 25 bps will be effective from February 27, 2010. Eventually, this will drain out Rs 36,000 crore from the system.

Repo rate is the rate at which the banks can borrow money from RBI in order to avoid scarcity of funds.

The move comes on the back of spiraling inflation. Food inflation touched 17.4 per cent for the week ended 16 January 2010, slightly higher than previous week’s 16.81 per cent. Fuel price index rose to 5.7 per cent while primary articles price index touched 14.66 per cent for the week ended 16 January 2010.

A median forecast released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in the pre-policy ‘Macroeconomic and Monetary Developments: Third Quarter Review 2009-10’ yesterday raised the economic growth projection to 6.9 per cent from the 6 per cent projected three months ago.

NIFTY Future :In panic low of 4757 was made and now trading at 4801.My Support and expected target was of 4724-4676 in panic.

-Don’t panic @ lower levels.

-If not breaks 4757 & trades above 4812 with volumes will take to 4845-4856 & there after watch unexpected buying upto 4889-4900 level.

Updated at 11:25/29th Dec/Baroda

Four Keys to Understanding Uncertainty

  
  Education
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1) Uncertainty is always subjective. It is a state of mind that is derived from a mix of objective data, emotions and personal experience. To say that the market is always equally uncertain is to say that mood is always the same. It is not. It constantly changes.

If the perceived uncertainty is always the same, earnings reports would not have such huge impact on prices. We all know that this is not the case. In many cases, earnings reports provide new data that changes market expectations and therefore prices. Options premium is higher before earnings exactly because uncertainty is higher.

2) Uncertainty has become a synonym for bad mood in our everyday life.

The future is always uncertain, but our perceptions of the future vary. And perceptions define actions. Actions (supply and demand) define prices. Somehow uncertainty is used with a highly negative connotation in our everyday life. It is a game of words. Just like the weather people always say that there is a 30% chance of rain and never that there is 70% chance of sun.

3) Uncertainty is basically another word for market sentiment. High levels of perceived uncertainty (bad mood) and high levels of perceived certainty (good mood) have historically been good contrarian indicators, IF your investing horizon is long enough.

4) There are different types of uncertainty.

There is an economic uncertainty. Uncertainty leads to a decline in economic activity. Less people are hired. Old machines and software licences are used longer. Investments are cut. This is what it has been happening in Europe for 2 years.

Uncertainty

  
  Education
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1) Uncertainty is always subjective. It is a state of mind that is derived from a mix of objective data, emotions and personal experience. To say that the market is always equally uncertain is to say that mood is always the same. It is not. It constantly changes.

If the perceived uncertainty is always the same, earnings reports would not have such huge impact on prices. We all know that this is not the case. In many cases, earnings reports provide new data that changes market expectations and therefore prices. Options premium is higher before earnings exactly because uncertainty is higher.

2) Uncertainty has become a synonym for bad mood in our everyday life.

The future is always uncertain, but our perceptions of the future vary. And perceptions define actions. Actions (supply and demand) define prices. Somehow uncertainty is used with a highly negative connotation in our everyday life. It is a game of words. Just like the weather people always say that there is a 30% chance of rain and never that there is 70% chance of sun.

3) Uncertainty is basically another word for market sentiment. High levels of perceived uncertainty (bad mood) and high levels of perceived certainty (good mood) have historically been good contrarian indicators, IF your investing horizon is long enough.

4) There are different types of uncertainty.

There is an economic uncertainty. Uncertainty leads to a decline in economic activity. Less people are hired. Old machines and software licences are used longer. Investments are cut. This is what it has been happening in Europe for 2 years.

There is market uncertainty that impacts volatility. When correlation is close to 1.0 (another way to say that stocks move together disregarding of their individual characteristics), uncertainty is perceived as high. It leads to choppy environment that market timers prefer to sit out in order to preserve monetary and mental capital. Perceptions define reality.

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