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Wine and Trading

  
  Education
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Like a fine wine the surety of a trend reversal gets better with time. The more a trend has aged, the more likely you are to get a valid reversal.

The older a trend gets the more ripe it is for falling off, and the more likely a new more robust trend will take over. A trend that is young and vigorous maybe side tracked briefly, but is not very likely to be defeated. The end of the uptrend says that the last of the big buyers are gone and the end of a down trend says that the last of the big sellers are gone and that trend has now become ripe for a take over.

Think of a trend like a young lion protecting his pride, another lion is not likely to usurp his authority. As he gets older, he is much more likely to lose his pride in defeat to a younger more energetic lion. The same is true with a trend as it gets older it becomes much more likely to be taken over. When considering whether or not to take a reversal (especially in the short term) gauge the age of the trend first. If the trend has just begin then you are not likely to have a legitimate reversal on your hand. If the trend is still very close to the trend line then it is not likely to be a valid reversal.

There are no absolutes in the market, but you do need to keep an eye out for things that put the odds the most in your favor.

Types of People and Views on Market

  
  Education
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What are the many types of people who disseminate their views about the market? What are the major categories that I am missing or what is a better way to classify and make this useful?”

No doubt, there is a book to be done on the subject. That said…

This list is presented in order of published appearance. A caveat: “many fall into more than one category and mobile via age and wealth changes.”

The Connected Person, who makes you feel without saying it that she/he is or will be connected to the very lynch pin of policy at the Interior or some such.

Tout, who has position and wants you in for his/her favor.

Sponsor, who advertises or sponsors programs that treat him/her well.

Would-be-manager without funds impresses with his/her knowledge/ideas for you to join.

Old lion, who is not virile but still fights younger from replacing him/her in power/ romance.

Curmudgeon, who hates everything modern and wants all back to old days before tech.

Spankist, a beauty but aggrieved to give spanking unless things in order her/his way; observed to be everywhere and influence growing among spankisto and spankista’s.

Iconoclast, who is always contrary, never reads papers or travels, and feels market is wrong.

Hole-In-Shoes, who only drinks coke and eats hamburgers, never pays a fee more than 10%.

Sanctimonious, who pretends to be honest while blind to any firm dishonesty/misdoing.

Academic-Consultant, who manipulates numbers retrospectively to allure investors.

Mystic, who looks at stars and bent keys.

Old Timer, who is guided by iron castings reports and freight car loadings and newsprint figures [sample]: all as timeless methods (non retro) with healthy respect for knowledge.

Fund Manager, who is quoted as “good buy” on stock that he/she sold bulk of before recall.

Jack of All Trades, who explains every rise and decline due to (un)certainty about earnings and rates and other well chosen factors. Always welcome on TV because of his versatility. (more…)

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