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UN on reports that North Korea have developed nuclear warheads for ballistic missiles

Reuters siting a confidential UN sanctions monitor report they have sighted

  • North Korea continues to develop nuclear weapons program
  • Report says several countries assess North Korea has ‘probably developed miniaturized nuclear devices to fit into the warheads of its ballistic missiles’

News on escalations re NK are yen positive although the market has become a little complacent on such reports. Yen is not moving much on this report.

Japan final Q1 GDP -0.6% q/q

January to March economic growth data from Japan. Old, old news by now.

  • GDP sa q/q -0.6%, prior -0.6%
  • GDP annualised sa q/q -2.2%, prior -2.2%
  • GDP nominal q/q -0.5%, prior %
  • Private consumption -0.8% q/q, prior -0.8%
  • Business spending +1.7%, prior +1.9%

Yen unchanged.

US dollar catches an early bid on Fed day

USD/JPY pops

Short-term speculators are no-doubt short the US dollar so some position squaring early today into the FOMC decision make sense. We’re also closing in on month-end so flow driven trades are going to be a factor.
The Fed decision is at 1800 GMT with Powell 30 minutes later. I’ll be looking for commentary on the economy as the top market mover. If it’s negative, the Fed will have to offer more strong hints at easing to keep the equity babies bulls at bay.
Other economic data today is a mish-mash of second tier data including:
  • US trade balance (advance goods)
  • Wholesale inventories
  • Pending home sales
  • Weekly oil inventories.

Fitch on Japan: Affirms rating at ‘A’ , but lowers its outlook to negative

Fitch Ratings

  • projects Japan’s economy to contract by 5% for full year in 2020, before rebounding to 3.2% growth in 2021
  • fiscal support & expected recovery in external demand should set stage for return to quarterly growth in 2h20 under fitch’s baseline for Japan
  • says sharply wider fiscal deficits in 2020 and 2021, will add significantly to Japan’s public debt
  • project Japan’s deficit to narrow to 10.9% of gdp in 2021 and 5.3% in 2022
  • expects BOJ to maintain current interest-rate settings through at least end of 2022 under its yield-curve control framework for japan

Key economic releases and events for next week’s trading

Big week for stock earnings. Advance GDP to be released

In addition to a slew of big-name earnings including Apple, Amazon, Google the key economic releases and events for next week include:

Monday, July 27
  • US durable goods, 8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT
Tuesday, July 28
  • RBA assistant governor can’t speaks at 8 PM ET, Monday/0030 GMT
  • Spanish unemployment rate, 3 AM ET/0700 GMT
  • US consumer confidence, 10 AM ET/1400 GMT
Wednesday, July 29
  • Australia CPI QoQ, 9:30 PM ET Tuesday/0130 GMT
  • US pending home sales, 10 AM ET/1400 GMT
  • FOMC decision and statement, 2 PM ET/1800 GMT
  • FOMC press conference, 2:30 PM ET/1830 GMT
Thursday, July 30
  • German preliminary GDP quarter on quarter, 4 AM ET/0 800 GMT
  • US advance GDP for the 2nd quarter annualized, 8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT
  • US initial claims for unemployment, 8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT
Friday, July 31
  • China manufacturing PMI, 9 PM ET Thursday/0100 GMT
  • Canada GDP, 8:30 AM ET/12:30 GMT
  • US core PCE price index 8:30 AM ET/1230 GMT
  • Chicago purchasing managers index, 9:45 AM ET/1345 GMT
  • University of Michigan consumer sentiment revised, 10 AM ET/1400 GMT

In addition, the US coronavirus relief package will continue to be worked out between Republicans and Democrats.

Baker Hughes oil rig counts come in at 181 vs. 179 estimate

Baker Hughes rig count for the week of July 24

Baker Hughes rig count
  • Oil rigs 181 vs. 179 estimate and 180 last week
  • Gas rigs 68 vs. 74 estimate and 71 last week
  • Total rig count 251 vs. 255 estimate, and 253 last week
The rise in the oil rigs was the 1st since March 13. That represents the 1st fall in 18 consecutive weeks.

Fauci: Some places may want to pause reopening, go back

Speaking on Fox News

Dr. Fauci is speaking on Fox news and says:
  • Some places may want to pause reopening, go back
  • He has a good relationship with Trump
  • some southern states need to step back on reopening
  • US shutdown was about 50% in reality, EU is 90%
  • footballs return is more complicated than baseball
  • he supports CDC’s school reopening guidelines
  • task force members are getting the message out
  • vaccine seen widely available by several months into 2021
Yesterday threw out the first pitch in Washington DC before the game between the Washington Nationals and the New York Yankees. He is obviously spending too much time focused on infection control.
  • By the end of this year/beginning of next year we will see if vaccine is safe and effective
  • Vaccine will be widely available several months into 2021

Some positive comments on vaccines from infectious disease expert Dr. Fauci

“What Buffett wouldn’t do”

Warren Buffett (@WarrenBuffett) | TwitterInvesting:

  • Don’t be too fixated on daily moves in the stock market (from Berkshire letter published in 2014)
  • Don’t get excited about your investment gains when the market is climbing (1996)
  • Don’t be distracted by macroeconomic forecasts (2004)
  • Don’t limit yourself to just one industry (2008)
  • Don’t get taken by formulas (2009)
  • Don’t be short on cash when you need it most (2010)
  • Don’t wager against the U.S. and its economic potential (2015)

Management:

  • Don’t beat yourself up over wrong decisions; take responsibility for them (2001)
  • Don’t have mandatory retirement ages (1992)
  • “Don’t ask the barber whether you need a haircut” because the answer will be what’s best for the man with the scissors (1983)
  • Don’t dawdle (2006)
  • Don’t interfere with great managers (1994)
  • Don’t succumb to the attitudes that undermine businesses (2015)
  • Don’t be greedy about compensation, if you’re my successor (2015)

Last, Buffett advises “Don’t worry about my health” — because Berkshire’s future success is is tied to reinsurance lieutenant Ajit Jain. “Worry about his.” (2001)

Major European indices end the session mixed

Provisional closes for the European major indices

the European stock markets are closing for the day with mixed results. Germany, France, UK, and Spain are all trading within 0.11% of the Friday close.  Italy had the biggest move with decline of -0.60% or more. The major indices are closing well off the session highs as well.
The provisional closes are showing:
  • German DAX, +0.07%. At the high the index was up 0.87%
  • France’s CAC, -0.06%. At the high the index was up 0.93%
  • UK’s FTSE MIB, +0.11%. At the high the index was up 1.07%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -0.06%. At the high the index was up 0.70%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, -0.68%. At the high the index was up 0.44%

IMF cites important risks to the outlook for US economy

IMF on the US.

The IMF is out with a series of headlines on the US economy as the coronavirus risks increase.  They say:

  • Cites important risks to outlook for US economy including resurgence in coronavirus cases, systematic increase in property
  • Significant increase in US debt levels creates vulnerabilities; sees risk of extended period of low or negative inflation
  • Repairing US economy will take prolonged period, further policy efforts needed to boost demand, support most vulnerable
  • US should reverse existing trade barriers, tariff increases that are undermining stability of global trade
  • US treatment of undervalued currencies as countervailable subsidy poses significant risk to global trading system
  • Sees areas where US financial oversight could be tightened to further mitigate systematic risks
  • US financial system has proven resilient, but crisis at early state and banks should continue to restrain capital distribution plans
The statements do not give a warm fuzzy feeling
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