Archives of “irrational exuberance” tag

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The Difference Between A Good And A Bad Trader: What Brain Imaging Reveals

  
  Education
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The age old question: what is the difference between a good trader and a bad trader… aside from the P&L at the end of the day of course.

While luck has always been a major component of the equation, figuring out just what makes one trader successful, while another blows all his funds on a trade gone horribly bad has always been the holy grail of behavioral finance. Because if one can isolate what makes a good trader “ticks, that something can then be bottled, packaged and resold at a massive markup (and thus, another good trade) in the process making everyone the functional equivalent of Warren Buffett.

Or so the myth goes. Alas, the distinction between the world’s only two types of traders has been a very vague one.

Until now. (more…)

Irrational Exuberance

  
  Education
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k6779Robert J. Shiller

Shiller’s book presents yet another correct view of the issues that so many people refuse to confront. These are the very issues that cause people to lose. Perhaps, one day investors will begin to appreciate uncertainty as something that can be managed. If people refrained from being overconfident or indulging in their magical thinking and then started to manage uncertainty as Trend Followers do — there might actually be the risk of no more trends!

Is it likely? No. For trends to stop investors would need to realize that news, personal opinions, tips, etc. have no relevance to properly making a decision. Trend Following trading takes advantage of the psychological weaknesses that most people possess. Trend Followers disarm the magical thinkers by winning their losses in the great zero sum game.

Ponder the wisdom:

Everyone wants to be rich, but few want to work for it.

MRI’s of Succesful Traders

  
  Education
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I’ve seen this study making the rounds on several websites now as a type of neuroeconomic confirmation of Buffetological principles…

Perhaps procedure might be slightly useful as a means of seeing physical brain improvement by training– such as that found through meditative practices.

“Traders who buy more aggressively based on NAcc signals earn less. High-earning traders have early warning signals in the anterior insular cortex before prices reach a peak, and sell coincidently with that signal, precipitating the crash. These experiments could help understand other cases in which human groups badly miscompute the value of actions or events.”

“Neuroeconomists Confirm Warren Buffet’s Wisdom”: (more…)

Classic Wall Street Quotations

  
  Education
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Soros, Buffett, Templeton, Livermore, Rothschild – This is the remix.  I’ve updated their classic quotations for the modern investment world.  Vote for your favorites below…Enjoy!

“We simply attempt to be greedy when others are fearful and to make others fearful when we do not have enough long positions on our sheets.” – Warren Buffett

“Capital goes to where it can escape taxation and be used to pay employees in sacks of rice.” – Walter Wriston

“Stock market bubbles don’t grow out of thin air. They have a solid basis in the creation and marketing of ETFs.” – George Soros

“It takes 150 years to build an investment bank and only five minutes to convince you to sell me preferred stock in it at a 10% interest rate.” – Warren Buffett

“The four most dangerous words in investing are ‘It’s the Lightning Round!'”. – Sir John Templeton

“Only buy something that you’d be perfectly happy to hold if the market had a Flash Crash.” – Warren Buffett

“Markets can remain irrational longer than you can pretend that Treasuries yielding a half a percent are a safe buy.” – John Maynard Keynes

“History has not dealt kindly with the aftermath of protracted periods of my policies” – Alan Greenspan

“Obviously the thing to do was to be bullish in a bull market and bearish in a bear market and a renter in the housing market and open-minded to exotic sh*t at Jean-Georges’ Spice Market.” – Jesse Livermore

“Give me control of a nation’s money and I care not how much it owes China.” – Mayer Amschel Rothschild

“Man looks in the abyss, there’s nothing staring back at him. At that moment, man gets a text message, an eFax and two Twitter DMs.  And by the time he’s updating his Facebook status and feeding his virtual farm animals, he has no idea what ‘abyss’ you’re talking about.” – Lou Mannheim, Wall Street

“How do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values?  How about around 2007 when I was walking around with a crown and a scepter, spraying Crystal on chicks in the VIP room. I was probably a little irrationally exuberant right around then, holmes.” – Alan Greenspan

“Money is like manure, you don’t have to spread it around, you can just sell it to Potash Corp as fertilizer.” – J. Paul Getty

“The time of maximum optimism is the time to sell and the time of maximum pessimism is the time to start a blog and write 20 posts a day about gold.” – Sir John Templeton

“Rule No. 1 – Never Lose Money.  Rule No. 2 – When you do lose money, call in Becky Quick and the camera crew for some folksy chit chat over root beer floats.” – Warren Buffett

10 Behavioral Economics/Psychology Books for Investors

  
Analysis, Education
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As a species, we are notoriously bad at understanding our own thinking and emotions. We are even worse at predicting our own behavior. Understanding your own mind and those of your fellow investors is crucial to successful investing.
These books will go a long way to helping you understand your hardwired weaknesses and blind spots.
 
1. How We Know What Isn’t So by Thomas Gilovich
Thomas Gilovich: How We Know What Isn't So
Published in 1991, this was the very first behavioral finance book I ever read — it is also one of the most influential investing books you will ever read. So many of our own foibles are detailed here that it is almost embarrassing. Everything from unsuspected biases to how we engage in critical reasoning comes under scrutiny. What it reveals isn’t pretty. Despite the genius that is human achievement, it turns out that we are all very poor at comprehending complex data and analyzing risk.
This book will help you understand how your brain processes randomness; overlooks evidence that is inapposite to prior beliefs; selectively perceives and reinterprets data; and engages in selective recall. It’s how we all create an artificial story line to help make sense of otherwise incomprehensible data.
Once you finish this book, you will never look at investing the same way.
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2.  Thinking, Fast and Slow (Daniel Kahneman)

Daniel Kahneman, a Psychologist, won the 2002 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences with Amos Tversky for their seminal work in behavioral finance. The two challenged the idea of Homo Economicus and the rational model of judgment and decision making.
Thinking, Fast and Slow  looks at the two systems of Human Cognition: System 1 is fast, intuitive, and emotional; System 2 is slower, more deliberative, and more logical. The book exposes the extraordinary capabilities along with the faults and biases of our wetware. This book will transform the way you think about thinking.
The most recent and comprehensive book from a giant in the field.

(more…)

Soros and the bullion bubble

  
  Education
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George-Soros-goldGold is rallying — but is it all because of one man’s lack of faith in the euro?

As Bloomberg reported on Monday:

George Soros is helping drive up gold prices by doubling his bet in a market even he considers a “bubble” as Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Barclays Capital and HSBC Holdings Plc predict more gains before it bursts.

The billionaire who made his money by shorting sterling in 1992 — and who declared in February that the euro “might not survive — has set his sights on another metal. His buy in to what appears to be an ever-growing bullion bubble has sparked both a rally and some controversy.

At this year’s World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, Mr Soros told CNBC:

When interest rates are low we have conditions for asset bubbles to develop, and they are developing at the moment.

The ultimate asset bubble is gold.

Both Spanish and Greek prime ministers have accused hedge funds like Soros Fund Management of aggressive short selling of the euro, according to a report in the Independent.

And it appears Soros intends to keep buying into gold, further inflating the so-called “ultimate bubble”.

But there’s some irony here. As Bloomberg pointed out on Monday:

In a Jan. 28 Bloomberg Television interview, the 79-year- old billionaire recalled that former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan warned of “irrational exuberance” in financial markets three years before the technology bubble burst in 2000.

So, Mr Soros, tell us, is buying into gold excessive or not?

MRI’s of Succesful Traders

  
  Education
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I’ve seen this study making the rounds on several websites now as a type of neuroeconomic confirmation of Buffetological principles…

Perhaps procedure might be slightly useful as a means of seeing physical brain improvement by training– such as that found through meditative practices.

“Traders who buy more aggressively based on NAcc signals earn less. High-earning traders have early warning signals in the anterior insular cortex before prices reach a peak, and sell coincidently with that signal, precipitating the crash. These experiments could help understand other cases in which human groups badly miscompute the value of actions or events.”

“Neuroeconomists Confirm Warren Buffet’s Wisdom”:

“Seeing what’s going on in people’s brains when they are trading suggests that Buffett was right on target,” says Colin Camerer, the Robert Kirby Professor of Behavioral Economics at Caltech.

That is because in their experimental markets, Camerer and his colleagues found two distinct types of activity in the brains of participants—one that made a small fraction of participants nervous and prompted them to sell their experimental shares even as prices were on the rise, and another that was much more common and made traders behave in a greedy way, buying aggressively during the bubble and even after the peak. The lucky few who received the early warning signal got out of the market early, ultimately causing the bubble to burst, and earned the most money. The others displayed what former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan called “irrational exuberance” and lost their proverbial shirts.

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