Archives of “investment strategy” tag

rss

The Tortoise and the Hare

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

Once upon a time, there was a young hare, a hotshot rabbit investor who would always brag to anyone that would listen and that he was the smartest, fastest, best performing investor in the world. He would constantly tease the old tortoise about his slow, solid investment style.

Then, one day, the annoyed tortoise answered back: “There is no denying that you are very aggressive in your investment strategy. You take very high risks and get high returns. But even you can be beaten.”

The young hare squealed with laughter. “Beaten? By whom? Surely not by you. I bet there’s nobody in the world that can win against me, because I’m so good. If you think that you can beat me, why don’t you try?”

Provoked by such bragging, the tortoise accepted the challenge. Each of them put an equal amount of money into a new account and the race was on. The hare yawned sleepily as the meek tortoise trudged slowly off.

As might be expected, the tortoise invested in high quality blue chips, companies with household names.

The hare, as anticipated, invested his money in dotcom stocks and options.

You know the story. The aggressive hare jumped out to a big early lead. In a rising market, the highest risk stocks perform the best. This is called momentum investing. Money flows into the investments that are performing the best.

The hare, having jumped out to such a large early lead, stopped paying attention to the market environment. Basically, he fell asleep. He thought to himself, “I’ll have 40 winks and still remain way ahead of that stupid old turtle.” (more…)

Sir John Templeton 16 Rules For Investment Success

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

Interesting set of rules from legendary investor John Templeton:

1. Invest for maximum total real return
2. Invest — Don’t trade or speculate
3. Remain flexible and open minded about types of investment
4. Buy Low
5. When buying stocks, search for bargains among quality stocks.
6. Buy value, not market trends or the economic outlook
7. Diversify. In stocks and bonds, as in much else, there is safety in numbers
8. Do your homework or hire wise experts to help you
9. Aggressively monitor your investments
10. Don’t Panic
11. Learn from your mistakes
12. Begin with a Prayer
13. Outperforming the market is a difficult task
14. An investor who has all the answers doesn’t even understand all the questions
15. There’s no free lunch
16. Do not be fearful or negative too often

 Complete explanation after the jump (more…)

17 Points from William J. O’Neil

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

READITWilliam O’Neil is likely one of  the greatest traders of our time based on many things. O’Neil made a huge amount of money while he was only in his twenties, enough to buy a seat on the New York Stock Exchange. He runs an amazingly successful investment advisory company to big money firms. He is also the creator of the CAN SLIM investment strategy which the American Association of Individual Investors named  the top performing investment strategy from 1998 to 2009. This non-profit organization tracked more than 50 different investing methods, over a 12 year time period. CANSLIM showed a total gain of 2,763% over the 12 years. The CAN SLIM method is explained in O’Neil’s book “How to Make Money in Stocks”

Those closest to O’Neil that have seen his private trading returns say that they are greater tna Warren Buffett of George Soros over the same period of time. Here are some of the best things that he is quoted as having said.

RISK MANAGEMENT

  1. I make it a rule to never lose more than 7 percent on any stock I buy. If a stock drops 7 percent below my purchase price, I will automatically sell it at the market – no second-guessing, no hesitation.
  2. Some people say, “I can’t sell that stock because I’d be taking a loss.” If the stock is below the price you paid for it, selling doesn’t give you a loss; you already have it.
  3. Letting losses run is the most serious mistake made by most investors.
  4. The whole secret to winning in the stock market is to lose the least amount possible when you’re not right.

METHOD

  1. 90% of the people in the stock market, professionals and amateurs alike, simply haven’t done enough homework.
  2. The first step in learning to pick big stock market winners is for you to examine leading big winners of the past to learn all the characteristics of the most successful stocks. You will learn from this observation what type of price patterns these stocks developed just before their spectacular price advances. (more…)

10 Investment Lessons

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

1. Believe in history
“All bubbles break; all investment frenzies pass. The market is gloriously inefficient and wanders far from fair price, but eventually, after breaking your heart and your patience … it will go back to fair value. Your task is to survive until that happens.”

2. ‘Neither a lender nor a borrower be’
“Leverage reduces the investor’s critical asset: patience. It encourages financial aggressiveness, recklessness and greed.”

3. Don’t put all of your treasure in one boat
“The more investments you have and the more different they are, the more likely you are to survive those critical periods when your big bets move against you.”

4. Be patient and focus on the long term
“Wait for the good cards this will be your margin of safety.”

5. Recognize your advantages over the professionals
“The individual is far better positioned to wait patiently for the right pitch while paying no regard to what others are doing.”

6. Try to contain natural optimism
“Optimism is a lousy investment strategy”

7. On rare occasions, try hard to be brave
“If the numbers tell you it’s a real outlier of a mispriced market, grit your teeth and go for it.”

8. Resist the crowd; cherish numbers only
“Ignore especially the short-term news. The ebb and flow of economic and political news is irrelevant. Do your own simple measurements of value or find a reliable source.”

9. In the end it’s quite simple. really
“[GMO] estimates are not about nuances or Ph.D.s. They are about ignoring the crowd, working out simple ratios and being patient.”

10. ‘This above all: To thine own self be true’
“It is utterly imperative that you know your limitations as well as your strengths and weaknesses. You must know your pain and patience thresholds accurately and not play over your head. If you cannot resist temptation, you absolutely must not manage your own money.”

Effectiveness Is the Measure of Truth

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

In trading as in life, effectiveness has to be the measure of truth. If something doesn’t work, there is no point in continuing to do it. Misperceptions, false unconscious or conscious beliefs, and unhelpful behaviors can contaminate and desecrate your most sought after results.

Imagine the frustration of a trader who perceives that a market is changing direction when in fact it is persisting in its original thrust. Or consider, for further example, an investor who bought into the belief that buy and hold is a valid investment strategy. That investor had to have experienced devastating losses over the past year. Or ponder the trader who repeatedly fails to utilize stop losses and experiences numerous outsize losses because he won’t accept a loss. (more…)

Trading Mathematics and Trend Following

  
Analysis, Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

Some quick points, to be making money, Profit Factor must be greater than 1.

  • Profit Factor (PF)
  • = Gross Gains / Gross Losses
  • = (Average win * number of wins) / (Average loss * number of losses)
  • = R * w / (1-w)
    • where R = Average win / Average loss
    • w = win rate, i.e. % number of winners compared to total number of trades

Re-arranging, we have

  • w = PF / (PF + R)
  • R = PF * (1 – w) / w

Sample numbers showing the minimum R required to break-even (i.e. PF = 1, assuming no transaction costs) for varying win rates.

  • w = 90% >> R = 0.11
  • w = 80% >> R = 0.25
  • w = 70% >> R = 0.43
  • w = 60% >> R = 0.67
  • w = 50% >> R = 1
  • w = 40% >> R = 1.5
  • w = 30% >> R = 2.33
  • w = 20% >> R = 4
  • w = 10% >> R = 9

(more…)

Traders Psychological TEST

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

Paul Farrell observes that 95% of traders don’t make it. 80% of all day traders lose money. One study found active investors turn over their portfolios excessively (258% annually) but made less than 12% on their money. Passive buy-and-hold investors with only 2% portfolio turnover had significantly better returns.

And, most day traders suffer negative health consequences from their hyper active market moves.

To find out what your trading instincts mean — to grade your own Traders Psychological Profile — answer the following questions Yes or N:

Traders Psychological Profile
Y N You’ve tried more than one new investment strategy this year
Y N Feel you’re buying and selling funds at the wrong time
Y N Rarely open up to anybody for feedback about your losses
Y N Subscribe to two or more newsletters, feel overwhelmed
Y N Can count on one hand all the good laughs this week
Y N Have a lingering resentment about someone or something
Y N You love cable news, but need more time to trade
Y N Rarely break a sweat when exercising the past few weeks
Y N Wonder whether you bet too much on recent investments
Y N Need more than three caffeine and alcohol drinks a day
Y N Feel “something” keeps you from making more money
Y N Frequently don’t trust your instincts or your strategy
Y N You’ve had a major family or personal loss recently
Y N Believe losses are caused by the market manipulators
Y N You’re overweight and snack often on comfort food
Y N Fear your future trades may fail due to a losing streak
Y N Diet and sleep are disturbed by worries about money
Y N Your retirement portfolio’s not growing fast enough
Y N No vacation in a year, and lack an active social life
Y N Nothing (or everything) interferes with making money

 

Add up the number of Yes answers. Farrell notes that if your total number of “yes” answers is six or more, then day trading is too stressful and risky for you.

The alternative to active trading is intelligent asset allocation. At the very least, he advises that you segregate your “untouchable” retirement money . . .

Effectiveness Is the Measure of Truth

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

In trading as in life, effectiveness has to be the measure of truth. If something doesn’t work, there is no point in continuing to do it. Misperceptions, false unconscious or conscious beliefs, and unhelpful behaviors can contaminate and desecrate your most sought after results.

Imagine the frustration of a trader who perceives that a market is changing direction when in fact it is persisting in its original thrust. Or consider, for further example, an investor who bought into the belief that buy and hold is a valid investment strategy. That investor had to have experienced devastating losses over the past year. Or ponder the trader who repeatedly fails to utilize stop losses and experiences numerous outsize losses because he won’t accept a loss.

When you choose effectiveness as your measure of truth, you can learn from your mistakes. You can make plans, take action, receive feedback, and assess the results. You can revise your plans, take new actions, receive new feedback, on and on, until you find a viable strategy that will work most of the time.

When you fear loss, when greed overcomes you, when you get reckless, or when you hesitate, you become grossly ineffective. When you’re confused or ambivalent yet think you need to take action, you do yourself no good. In each case you need to sort through your thoughts, develop a clear focus, search for the high probabilities, and take prompt and calm action. (more…)

Warren Buffetts Next Door

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

The book The Warren Buffetts Next Door: The World’s Greatest Investors You’ve Never Heard Of and What You Can Learn From Them by Matthew Schifrin is an interesting compilation of true stories about ‘average Joes’ who have made huge amounts of money in the stock market. Some use technical analysis, some use fundamental analysis, and some use gut feelings.

This book gives hope to every investor and trader. Each chapter covers a different person, describing what their occupation is, how old they are, their investment strategy, what broker they use, and what their favorite web sites and chat rooms are. Also, their best and worst picks, along with the long term track record. My favorite one is the Stock Angler in Chapter 9. The guy has a full time job, trades during the hour or two before he leaves for work, and has been able to achieve a 33% average annualized return since January 2003.

Every trader that is profiled provides an example of on of their successful trades, and shows how the decision was made to make the trade. I really like the last chapter which lists all the major investment websites which he calls Investor Incubators. You should read The Warren Buffetts Next Door for proof that you don’t have to be Warren Buffett, George Soros, T. Boone Pickens, or Carl Icahn to be a successful stock trader.

Go to top