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US dollar catches an early bid on Fed day

  
Analysis, Forex
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USD/JPY pops

Short-term speculators are no-doubt short the US dollar so some position squaring early today into the FOMC decision make sense. We’re also closing in on month-end so flow driven trades are going to be a factor.
The Fed decision is at 1800 GMT with Powell 30 minutes later. I’ll be looking for commentary on the economy as the top market mover. If it’s negative, the Fed will have to offer more strong hints at easing to keep the equity babies bulls at bay.
Other economic data today is a mish-mash of second tier data including:
  • US trade balance (advance goods)
  • Wholesale inventories
  • Pending home sales
  • Weekly oil inventories.

US weekly oil inventories -4985K vs +2150K expected

  
  Analysis
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Weekly US petroleum inventory data:

  • Prior was -745K
  • Cushing -5587K
  • Gasoline +2830K
  • Distillates +3832K
  • Production estimate 11.5 mbpd vs 11.6 mbpd
API data from yesterday:

  • Crude -4800K
  • Cushing -5000K
  • Gasoline -651K
  • Distillates +5100K

US weekly EIA energy inventories +9281K vs +3000K expected

  
Analysis, Crude
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Weekly US oil inventory data from the EIA:

  • Prior was +2927K
  • Gasoline -2562K vs -1500K exp
  • Distillates -3823K vs -2500K exp
  • Cushing +1276K
  • Refinery utilization -2.6%
The headlines aren’t as bad as they look because the API numbers from late yesterday were so bearish. The drop in refinery runs and draws in products takes the sting out of the report:
  • Crude +10500K
  • Cushing +1600K
  • Gasoline -934K
  • Distillates -2900K
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