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Speculation drives human progress

Speculation, in all its forms, is what drives human progress. This is the core message behind Michael Bigger’s recent post, “The Desire to Speculate”.
An excerpt from Michael’s essay: 
“It is said that the desire to speculate is very strong in the American people. That is why our country has made greater progress than any other country in the world, because progress is the result of speculation. We are not referring merely to stock speculations, but to the word in its broadest sense. Every new undertaking is a speculation.

An inventor speculates on what he is going to invent. Often such speculations result in losses, because many inventors, or would-be-inventors, never accomplish very much. They spend their money, time, and efforts, and probably live years in poverty, and then if the invention is not profitable, they are heavy losers.

It is the same thing with every new business. It is purely a speculation…”  (more…)

DON’T FIGHT THE MARKET

Fighting the market is not good for two reasons.  First, we lose money.  How much we lose depends on how well we are managing our money and controlling our risk.  Second, fighting the market affects our judgment, and causes us to try to confirm that our judgment is correct. Some very high level market analyst will persist in fighting a trend so that we will eventually be proved to be correct.  They figure that if we persist long enough, no matter how long it takes, we will eventually be right. In some cases the “technical price” level is so far away that by the time the forecast is negated, the inventor following the advice will have lost a large sum and missed a fine opportunity on the other side of the forecast!

By analogy, there is a reason for leaving your car downstream, launching your canoe upstream, and paddling downstream.  It is much easier and eminently more fun to go with the flow and paddle downstream.  We could do the opposite and paddle upstream, eventually we may even get to our destination, but the cost would be substantial.  It would take much more time, more physical and emotional stamina, and we would be constantly fighting the current.  Reaching the goal would not be worth the cost.

From a system trading point of view, it is seen from a different set of constraints. The technical or priced based strategy that gets you into a trade also has a priced based signal that says “the strategy is wrong get out ” or “the strategy is wrong reverse your positions”. The problem with relaying on price to tell you that you’re wrong is that the market does not care. So like the unmoved market analyst that says “it’s only a bear market rally”, at some point money management, risk manage has to come into play, It is a necessary evil.

Emirates Palace unveils gold dispensing ATM

Emirates Palace has raised the luxury stakes in the Gulf even higher by unveiling an ATM that dispenses gold.

The machine, which monitors the price of gold minute-by minute, offers small bars that weight up to 10 grammes engraved with the Emirates Palace logo, as well as a variety of coins.

Thomas Giessler, the inventor of the Gold to Go machine, chose Abu Dhabi because of its luxury atmosphere, and hopes it will tie in nicely with the region’s traditional ties in gold commerce.

“A gold machine should be made of gold,” said Thomas Geissler, the chief executive of Ex Oriente Lux AG. “This is now at a hotel made out of gold. It is the perfect place.”

Six coins of differing weights come engraved with a maple leaf, kangaroo and Krugerrand, symbols of the gold-producing nations South Africa, Canada and Australia.

Emirates Palace Hotel general manager Hans Olbertz said: “We seized upon this idea and, as one of the most exclusive hotels in the world, we wanted the Emirates Palace to play a pioneering role and be the first hotel in the world to offer its guests this golden service.”

The idea is aimed at both a souvenir and an investment. Gold is still one of the most sustainable forms of investment and is currently as a record high price due to volatility in the current global economic market. (more…)

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