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ICYMI – Norway’s central bank rate hike Thursday

Norges Bank Norway’s central bank raised its benchmark interest rate on Thursday, raised the sight deposit rate to 0.25%

  • from zero
  • the hike was as expected
The Bank said it expect to do the same again in December, another hike
  • and three more hikes by the end of 2022 (to 1.25%) had become more likely.
The governor of the Norwegian central bank spoke at a press conference after:
  • There is a strong recovery in the Norwegian economy
  • It’s time to start a gradual normalisation of the policy rate

What’s Your Trading Blood Type? -#AnirudhSethi

Have you ever wondered what your trading blood type is? What about the type of trader that best suits you? What’s Your Trading Blood Type? will help answer these questions and more. It provides a personality quiz that identifies your trading style, as well as an in-depth explanation for each one. The quiz also compares your results to other common types of traders. It’s never been easier to figure out what kind of trader you are!

##What is a Trading Blood Type?:

The ability to observe the experiences of different traders is one of my greatest luxuries. I have learned that it’s possible for brokers in this business, over time, to match certain? blood types? with their correct trading diet. This isn’t meant medically but more figuratively; there are many variables that come into play when dealing with trades and we’ve found a way around these elements by matching blood type (in its metaphorical sense) with trader profile so that they can adopt an appropriate approach without wasting valuable capital or risking too much risk suddenly closing out profitable positions prematurely as well as holding on blindly through losers until all hope seems lost.

“Can’t tell what type of trader you are? That’s ok! It doesn’t take a magician to determine blood types based on personality. This is all about determining your capital, experience level, and risk profile so we can prescribe the perfect diet for just you.”

With the help of a trained expert, it’s not too difficult to prescribe an individual with their best trading type based on their personality. This is done by identifying what they have more success at and then prescribing them food that’ll work for this specific person as well as taking into account factors like capital, experience level, risk profile, and schedule.

##How to determine your blood and diet type?: (more…)

Dickson Watts on Speculation: Timeless

MUST READ

His list of ‘Essential Qualities of the Speculator’ and ‘Laws Absolute” show the timeless value of his insight:

1. Self-Reliance. A man must think for himself,must follow his own convictions. George MacDonald says: “A man cannot have another man’s ideas any more than he can another
man’s soul or another man’s body.” Self-trust is the foundation of successful effort.
 

2. Judgment. That equipoise, that nice adjustment of the faculties one to the other,which is called good judgment, is an essential to the speculator.
 
3. Courage. That is, confidence to act on the decisions of the mind. In speculation there is value in Mirabeau’s dictum: “Be bold, still be bold; always be bold.”
 
4. Prudence. The power of measuring the danger, together with a certain alertness and watchfulness, is very important. There should be a balance of these two, Prudence and Courage;Prudence in contemplation, Courage in execution.
Lord Bacon says: “In meditation all dangers should be seen; in execution one, unless very formidable.”
Connected with these qualities,properly an outgrowth of them, is a third, viz:promptness. The mind convinced, the act should follow. In the words of Macbeth; “Henceforth the
very firstlings of my heart shall be the firstlings of my hand.” Think, act, promptly.
 
5. Pliability. The ability to change an opinion,the power of revision. “He who observes,”says Emerson, “and observes again, is always formidable.”
The qualifications named are necessary to the makeup of a speculator, but they must be in well-balanced combination. A deficiency or an overplus of one quality will destroy the effectiveness of all. The possession of such faculties, in a proper adjustment is, of course, uncommon. In speculation, as in life, few succeed,many fail. (more…)

Eurozone December inflation stays low at 0.8%

The eurozone’s annual inflation rate for December has just been confirmed at 0.8 per cent, in line with expectations and the preliminary reading of the data.

Eurostat, the EU’s offical data provider, also confirmed that prices in the last month of 2013 rose by 0.3 per cent from November in the shared currency area.

From the full release:

The largest upward impacts to euro area annual inflation came from electricity (+0.11 percentage points), tobacco (+0.08) and restaurants & cafés (+0.05), while telecommunications (-0.14), fuels for transport (-0.13) and medical & paramedical services (-0.07) had the biggest downward impacts.

The European Central Bank’s inflation target is 2 per cent.

If inflation stays significantly below target in the months ahead, it is likely to stoke calls for the ECB to do more. If price pressures were to continue to disappoint, the most likely options would be another cut to the benchmark main refinancing rate or negative deposit rates, which amount to a levy on banks for funds parked in the central bank’s coffers. (more…)

What Ray Dalio and Art Cashin think of the latest market moves

Two articles are doing the rounds. The first is a letter from Bridgewater hedge fund titan Ray Dalio, who has long believed the world is in a great deleveraging. He doubles down today and says the next ‘big’ Fed move will be more QE.

Here’s the crux:

the ability of central banks to ease is limited, at a time when the risks are more on the downside than the upside and most people have a dangerous long bias. Said differently, the risks of the world being at or near the end of its long-term debt cycle are significant.

That is what we are most focused on. We believe that is more important than the cyclical influences that the Fed is apparently paying more attention to.

While we don’t know if we have just passed the key turning point, we think that it should now be apparent that the risks of deflationary contractions are increasing relative to the risks of inflationary expansion because of these secular forces. These long-term debt cycle forces are clearly having big effects on China, oil producers, and emerging countries which are overly indebted in dollars and holding a huge amount of dollar assets-at the same time as the world is holding large leveraged long positions.

While, in our opinion, the Fed has over-emphasized the importance of the “cyclical” (i.e., the short-term debt/business cycle) and underweighted the importance of the “secular” (i.e., the long-term debt/supercycle), they will react to what happens. Our risk is that they could be so committed to their highly advertised tightening path that it will be difficult for them to change to a significantly easier path if that should be required.

Next is NYSE floor veteran Art Cashin at UBS. Some of his comments are mute because he talks about the potential for China to cut rates and that’s already taken place. He says to watch high yield closely and Jackson Hole.

Vice-Chair Stanley Fischer will be speaking later this week at the Jackson Hole conference. I think he will be addressing the problem of inflation and that it’s not growing in the pace they want it. That will give the world a hint that the Fed is not quite ready to raise interest rates.

Ray Dalio’s Long-Term Debt Cycle Charts

The following speech was delivered by Ray Dalio of Bridgewater at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s 40th Annual Central Banking Seminar on Wednesday, October 5, 2016.

~~~

It is both an honor and a very special opportunity for me to be able to address such a large and esteemed group of central bankers at such an interesting time for central bankers. I especially want to thank President Dudley and Vice President Schetzel for inviting me to forthrightly share my perspective as an investor and my unconventional template that I believe sheds some light on the very unconventional circumstances that we face.

It is no longer controversial to say that:

• …this isn’t a normal business cycle and we are likely in an environment of abnormally slow growth

• …the current tools of monetary policy will be a lot less effective going forward

• …the risks are asymmetric to the downside

• …investment returns will be very low going forward, and (more…)

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