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Japan preliminary PMIs (May): Manufacturing 38.4 (prior 41.9) & Services 25.3 (prior 21.5)

Jibun Bank / Markit preliminary PMIs for May

Manufacturing 38.4
  • prior 41.9
Services 25.3
  • prior 21.5
Composite 27.4
  • prior 25.8
Joe Hayes, Economist at IHS Markit:
  • “Latest PMI data provide yet another shocking insight into the devastating impact of the COVID-19 outbreak. While the rate of decline in services activity has eased very slightly, plummeting demand for goods is finally catching up with the manufacturing sector, which posted an accelerated decline in production during May. 
  • “Taking the April and May PMI surveys together, we see that both are indicative of GDP falling at an annual rate in excess of 10%. It is clear that the economy is going to contract for a third successive quarter, with the hit to Q2 likely to be potentially as large as 20% on the previous year. 
  • “Nevertheless, the dynamics in the economy are clearly evolving. As Japan eases the state of emergency measures, the services economy can begin its gradual recovery. However, the damage to the manufacturing sector could continue to worsen as global trade conditions deteriorate and the global economic recovery is slow.” 

Why OPEC+ will cut even without US participation

You don’t need $20 oil to kill shale

There’s a narrative emerging around OPEC+ and shale: The mainstream thinking is that Russia and Saudi Arabia want to drive crude prices lower to kill US frackers.
I don’t think it’s correct, or at least not wholly correct.
The reality is that shale didn’t make any money in 2019 at $55 oil. Even at that price, it was on its way to mass insolvencies, albeit at a slower pace. I’ve been writing about the bust in shale for more than a year.
All this talk that OPEC+ wont’ cut without the US is a bluff. Why? Because shale is still going bust at $30-$40 oil.

(more…)

Oil services giant Halliburton rumoured lay offs (unpaid)

Halliburton is a huge supplier of products and services to the energy industry.

The firm has been hit by the intertwined coronavirus and oil price plunge
Chatter about is that the business is requiring mandatory furloughs for around3,500 employees
  • at its its North Belt campus in Houston
  • From 23 March
  • One-week on, one-week off roster for up to 60 days
  • Employees won’t be paid on their week off
  • Health care and benefits won’t be affected
Like I said, chatter at this stage.
This will be just one example of lay offs right across industry.

Intel earnings are impressive (as is guidance)

EPS $1.52 versus $1.25 as expected

Intel stock is moving sharply higher in after-hours trading after their earnings and revenues beat expectations.

  • EPS, $1.52 versus $1.25 estimate
  • Revenues $20.2 billion versus estimate $19.22 billion
  • Intel sees 2020 revenues about $73.5 billion versus estimate of $72.21 billion
  • Intel sees 2020 adjusted earnings-per-share of $5 versus estimate of $4.69
  • Intel sees 1st quarter revenue about $19 billion versus estimate of $17.2 billion
  • Intel earnings, forecasts boosted by cloud a data center demand
  • Guidance completely above normal seasonal levels
The stock is currently trading at $67.82 after hours. That is up $4.50 or 7.11%

Trump weighs exempting Apple from China tariffs

President Donald Trump said on Wednesday after touring a plant that assembles Apple computers that he was considering whether to exempt the U.S. company from tariffs on imports from China.

“We’re looking at that,” Trump said in answer to a reporter’s question about the tariffs, after touring a plant in Austin, Texas, with Apple Chief Executive Tim Cook that assembles the company’s Mac Pro desktop computers.

Cook, who has a strong relationship with Trump, has sought relief for Apple from the U.S. tariffs, which are part of a months-long tit-for-tat trade war between the world’s largest economies.

“The problem we have is you have Samsung. It’s a great company but it’s a competitor of Apple, and it’s not fair if, because we have a trade deal with Korea — we made a great trade deal with South Korea — but we have to treat Apple on a somewhat similar basis as we treat Samsung,” Trump said.

Apple announced in September it would make its new Mac Pro computers in Austin. The announcement came days after U.S. trade regulators approved 10 out of 15 requests for tariff exemptions filed by Apple amid a broader reprieve on levies on computer parts.

Earlier this month, Apple also asked the Trump administration to waive tariffs on Chinese-made Apple Watches, iPhone components and other consumer products.

Trump has made boosting the U.S. manufacturing sector one of the goals of his presidency, taking to Twitter to pressure U.S. companies into keeping jobs at home.

Earlier on Wednesday, Apple said it had started construction of a new campus in Austin that will employ 5,000 workers, with the capacity to grow to 15,000. It is expected to open in 2022.

Chinese yuan rises to the highest levels since mid-August

USD/CNH falls below the 100-day moving average

USD/CNH falls below the 100-day moving average
Here’s your chart of the day.
USD/CNH is down 0.2% today and the decline has taken out both the Sept low, the Oct low and the 100-day moving average.
Notably, it’s the first time below the 100-dma since the broke on gap when Trump tweeted to restart the trade war. The next big hurdle is 7.000 but we’re on the way.
Take it as a great sign for global growth and risk trades.

Samsung estimates operating profit down by 56% in second quarter

Samsung Electronics estimated its operating profit more than halved in the second quarter, amid growing concerns over US trade sanctions on Huawei and Japan’s export controls of high tech materials to South Korea. The poor earnings guidance comes as the semiconductor industry is buffeted by the slowing global economy, the US-China trade war and US export controls on Huawei. The US campaign against Huawei has increased chip inventories as the Chinese telecoms maker is one of the Korean tech sector’s biggest customers.  South Korean chipmakers face a gloomy outlook following Japan’s decision this week to impose tighter restrictions on exports of key chemicals used for chips and smartphones amid political disputes over wartime labour compensation.  Operating profit at the world’s largest maker of memory chips and smartphones was estimated at Won6.5tn ($5.6bn) for the April-June period, down 56.3 per cent from Won14.9tn a year earlier. Still, Samsung’s guidance was better than market estimates of Won6tn provided by Reuters. Sales were estimated to have fallen 4.2 per cent year on year to Won56tn. The company is set to announce detailed earnings later this month.  Chip prices have continued to fall since late last year, but shares of Samsung have gained nearly 20 per cent so far this year on expectations of a second-half recovery in the chip cycle. However, the downturn is expected to continue through the second half as external headwinds grow.

Global chip supply at risk as Japan and South Korea feud

Japan’s new export controls on South Korea, a country that produces the bulk of the world’s memory chips, threaten a ripple effect that spreads beyond the two wary neighbors to electronics manufacturing globally.

The restrictions announced Monday mark the latest setback in a bilateral relationship fraught with colonial-era grievances. The move prompted Seoul to say it was considering retaliatory measures and left chipmakers to confront an immediate supply challenge.

Starting Thursday, Japanese suppliers must seek approval for individual exports of three semiconductor industry chemicals to South Korea. Japan’s government expects export reviews to take about three months. But South Korean chipmakers typically keep only one to two months’ worth of parts and materials in stock.

A source at chipmaker SK Hynix told Nikkei the company does not have three months of inventory. The chipmaker would have to halt production if it cannot procure necessary materials from Japan for that long, the source said.

Top memory chip maker Samsung Electronics said it was assessing the situation, without elaborating.

The impact could spread worldwide. South Korean players control 70% of the global market for dynamic random access memory and 50% for NAND flash memory. Samsung leads the global chip market by revenue, with SK Hynix in third.

These chips go into devices such as Apple’s iPhone, rival models from Huawei Technologies, personal computers made by HP and Lenovo Group as well as televisions from Sony and Panasonic.

A representative at a major Japanese electrical equipment maker expressed concern that the new controls could backfire.

“If supplies of things like memory from South Korea are delayed and production of Apple’s iPhone falls [as a result], there could be an impact on our provision of parts,” the representative said.

Lesser-known Japanese companies hold leading market shares in the three restricted materials. Polyimides are used to make flexible organic light-emitting diode displays. The others are used in forming circuit patterns: resist — a coating substance — and etching gas. These companies include JSR, Showa Denko and Shin-Etsu Chemical — all of which are a third or more owned by foreign investors.

Japan also plans to remove South Korea by August from an export “whitelist” of 27 friendly countries that includes the U.S., Germany and France, meaning that shipments of products with potential military applications will require government approval. No country has ever been dropped from the list.

Tokyo cited a deteriorating relationship with Seoul as the reason for the controls, seemingly referring to a long-running dispute over compensation from Japanese companies to South Koreans for wartime labor.

The move follows Tokyo’s increase in inspections of some South Korean seafood that began last month, reportedly in retaliation for continued curbs on imports of food from areas affected by Japan’s 2011 Fukushima Daiichi nuclear disaster.

“It’s become difficult to manage exports based on a relationship of trust with South Korea,” Japanese Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Yasutoshi Nishimura told reporters Monday. (more…)

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