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Dangers detailed for banks in Europe

  
Analysis, Economy, Education
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Despite recent improvements in the health of European banks, they remain vulnerable to a daunting array of hazards that are expected to produce another round of sizable write-offs in the next couple of years, the European Central Bank said.

Its report cataloged in detail the problems facing the region’s financial institutions.

The challenges for banks in the 16-nation euro zone include exposure to a weakening commercial real estate market, hundreds of billions of euros in bad debts, economic problems in East European countries, and a potential collision between the banks’ own substantial refinancing needs and government demand for additional loans, the central bank said.

In its twice-yearly review of risks facing the nations that use the euro currency, the central bank expressed particular concern about banks’ need to refinance long-term debt of an estimated 800 billion euros, or $984 billion, by the end of 2012.

European banks will need to set aside an estimated 123 billion euros in 2010 for bad loans, and an additional 105 billion euros in 2011, the report said. That would be in addition to the 238 billion euros they set aside from 2007 to 2009.

Psychological problems

  
  Education
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There are two parts to fixing any psychological problems:
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1. Recognizing that it exists
2. Accepting it so you can move on
In trading, this is where it’s so crucial to take responsibility for your own actions because it induces change and you can start making improvements. If you don’t recognize and accept a problem, then you won’t get anywhere!
What are some of these issues  ? Here are a few along with their causes and/or effects:
1. Anger over a losing trade – Traders usually feel as if they are victims of the market. This is usually because they either 1) care too much about the trade and/or 2) have unrealistic expectations. They seek approval from the markets, something the markets cannot provide.
2. Trading too much – Traders that do this have some personal need to “conquer” the market. The sole motivation here is greed and about “getting even” with the market. It is impossible to get “even” with the market.
3. Trading the wrong size – Traders ignore or don’t recognize the risk of each trade or do not understand money management. There is no personal responsibility here.
4. PMSing after the day is over – Traders are on a wild emotional roller coaster that is fueled by a plethora of emotions ranging throughout the spectrum. Focus is taken off of the process and is placed too heavily on the money. These people are very irritable akin to the symptoms of premenstrual syndrome. (more…)

Self Observation and feedback

  
  Education
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safety6qe2Three questions to ask at the start of the trading day:

Am I bringing baggage to the day’s trade? Am I carrying over frustrations from losing money or missing opportunity? Am I feeling particular pressure to make winning trades? Am I locked into a view of markets because those views haven’t been paying me?

Am I prepared? Have I identified significant price levels for the day? Have I gained a feel for how various markets have been trading overnight? Do I know if economic reports are scheduled for the day and what the expectations are?

What am I working on? Do I have goals for the day? What have been the mistakes I’ve been making that need to be corrected? What improvements have I made that I want to cement? What kinds of trades have been working best for me, and am I prepared to actively look for those?

The idea is to become a good self-observer!

5 Ideas for Traders

  
  Education
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1) You can’t take your trading to the next level if you don’t know the level you’re playing at. It’s not just P/L; it’s also knowing how you manage risk, how you take advantage of opportunities, how well you execute ideas, etc. Self-improvement starts with self observation;
2) Improving risk-adjusted returns is as important for a long-term career as improving absolute returns. If you take half the trades and make 90% of your previous income, you’ve meaningfully improved. If you take twice as many trades and make 110% of your prior income, you’ve moved backward;
3) Learning to diversify your trading (and income stream) can be as important as improving your core trading. Diversification can be by market, by strategy, by time frame, or by some combination of those;
4) Many times, the best improvements come from doing more of what you’re good at. It helps to make fewer mistakes, but doing less of what doesn’t work is not in itself going to make you a living. It’s crucial to know what you’re really good at;
5) Improving your preparation for trading can be as important as directly working on your trading results. So many outcome results follow from improvements in one’s process. 
Most of all, you elevate your trading by always working on your craft. A day without goals is a day without forward movement. And life is too precious to settle for standing still.

The Trading Mindset & Common Psychological Issues

  
  Education
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Plutchik’s Wheel of Emotions


How does someone know that they reached the trader’s mindset? Here are a few characteristics:

1. No anger whatsoever.
2. Confidence and being in control of the self
3. A sense of not forcing the markets
4. An absence of feeling victimized by the markets
5. Trading with money you can afford to risk
6. Trading using a chosen approach or system
7. Not influenced by others
8. Trading is enjoyable
9. Accepting both winning and losing trades equally
10. An open mind approach at all times
11. Equity curve grows as skills improve
12. Constantly learning on a daily basis
13. Consistently aligning trades with the market’s direction
14. Ability to focus on the present reality
15. Taking full responsibility for your actions

Developing the trader’s mindset takes time. It usually takes traders 2-5 years before they can read through the above list and honestly say that it describes themselves.

Let’s take 100 traders using the same trading system or approach. It is highly likely that no two of them will trade it exactly the same way in all aspects. Why is this? Because our mindsets, beliefs, and understandings are unique. It is no surprise that most traders fail and the reason why is because they lack the trader’s mindset. This article covers those in Stage III and IV within the 4 Stages of Learning. More importantly, it applies to those that survived Stage II.

There are two parts to fixing any psychological problems:

1. Recognizing that it exists
2. Accepting it so you can move on

In trading, this is where it’s so crucial to take responsibility for your own actions because it induces change and you can start making improvements. If you don’t recognize and accept a problem, then you won’t get anywhere!

What are some of these issues that I speak of? Here are a few along with their causes and/or effects:

1. Anger over a losing trade – Traders usually feel as if they are victims of the market. This is usually because they either 1) care too much about the trade and/or 2) have unrealistic expectations. They seek approval from the markets, something the markets cannot provide.

2. Trading too much – Traders that do this have some personal need to “conquer” the market. The sole motivation here is greed and about “getting even” with the market. It is impossible to get “even” with the market.

3. Trading the wrong size – Traders ignore or don’t recognize the risk of each trade or do not understand money management. There is no personal responsibility here.

4. PMSing after the day is over – Traders are on a wild emotional roller coaster that is fueled by a plethora of emotions ranging throughout the spectrum. Focus is taken off of the process and is placed too heavily on the money. These people are very irritable akin to the symptoms of premenstrual syndrome.

5. Using money you can’t afford to lose – Usually, a trader is pinning his/her last hopes to make money. Traders fear “losing” the “last best opportunity”. Self-discipline is quickly forgotten but the power of greed drives them, usually over a cliff.

6. Wishing, hoping, or praying – Do this in church, but leave this out of the market. Traders do not take control of their trades and cannot accept the present reality of what’s happening in the market.

7. Getting high after a huge win – These traders tie their self-worth to their success in the markets or by the value of their account. Usually, these folks have an unrealistic feeling of being “in control” of the markets. A huge loss usually sobers them up pretty quickly.

8. Adding to a losing position – Also known as doubling, tripling, quadrupling down, typically, this means that the trader does not want to admit the trade is wrong. The trader’s ego is at stake and #6 comes into effect as the trader is hoping the markets will “work in their favor”.

9. Compulsive trading – Similar to #2, except these traders have an addiction to trading and quite possibly gambling issues. They need to constantly be trading, even if there is no rational reason to do so. They are always excited whether they win or lose.

10. Afraid of “pulling the trigger” – This usually means that the trader does not have a system or approach already in place. They have not calculated risk/reward and many times, these trades are unplanned. This also comes after a string of losses. They don’t want to be “wrong again”. There is no trust from within. (more…)

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