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The Power of Focus

Let’s take a break and look at some trading psychology tips. Today our ideas are coming from one of my favorite books that’s not really trading-oriented. We’re going to be looking at a few highlights from a book called “The Power Of Focus”, by Jack Canfield, Mark Hansen, and Les Hewitt. While there’s no way to do the book justice in our limited space here, hopefully you’ll take away some of the more important pieces of the book. And best of all, you’ll be able to apply them immediately.

Your habits will determine your future. This is not news to any of us, but what I found interesting was something of an aside in the book. The book contends that the results of bad habits don’t show up until well after the habit has been learned. That’s unfortunate too, as we all know that it’s incredibly difficult to unlearn something. The implication is that that you’ll be engaging in a destructive behavior, but you may not know it until it’s far too late to actually do anything about it. In fact, up to 90% of your everyday behavior is based on habits. Have you made it a habit to spend an hour a day preparing and doing trade research? Have you committed to waking up an hour earlier to plan your trading or work day? Or do you hit the snooze button a few times, and miss out on reviewing the news and charts of your positions? Habits are the key to success.

Your goals must have a number. And this doesn’t just mean the total returns on your trades, as an overall goal is still too ambiguous to actually use in making daily plans. You need to know how many trades per day, week, or month it will take to achieve your goal. Of course, you’ll also need to know what type of return you need to average on each trade to reach that goal. As the book states so accurately, “a goal without a number is just a slogan.”

Take decisive action. They say 80% of success is showing up, and that’s probably a pretty good rule of thumb. So how does one “show up” to be a trader? By taking trading action! And if you’re not taking the action you know you should be taking, you absolutely must understand and admit that you’re procrastinating. Stings, doesn’t it? But recognizing the truth is the first step to attacking any problem. The book explains six reasons for procrastination; think about which ones apply to you.
1) You’re bored.
2) You’re overwhelmed.
3) Your confidence has slipped.
4) You have low self-esteem.
5) You don’t enjoy what you do.
6) You’re easily distracted. (more…)

Trade to win

“If a betting game among a certain number of participants is played long enough, eventually one player will have all the money. If there is any skill involved, it will accelerate the process of concentrating all the stakes in a few hands. Something like this happens in the market. There is a persistent overall tendency for equity to flow from the many to the few. In the long run, the majority loses. The implication for the trader is that to win you have to act like the minority. If you bring normal human habits and tendencies to trading, you’ll gravitate toward the majority and inevitably lose.”

7-Day Commercial Paper Rate Hits 18 Month Highs

The crunch in funding continues. There is $673 billion in Commercial Paper maturing over the next month and a half. The problem is that the rolling of all this paper will come at increasingly higher costs. Today the market for US 7 Day CP hit level of 0.61%. As the chart below indicates, the current CP rate is not only the highest in 2010, but higher than CP costs during the March 2009 market lows. More worrying is that despite the recent unprecedented volatility in daily rate swings, the trend is one of an accelerated increase. At this rate of increase, the Fed may soon need to put the CPFF program back in play.The most worrying is the implication 7 Day CP rates have for the FF rate: while 7 Day CP historically has tracked the Fed Funds tick for tick, over the past few months we have once again seen a major divergence between the two. In this closest proxy to short-term funding, the market is now notifying Bernanke that the Fed Funds rate is now about 36 bps off and increasing.

And the spread to the Fed Funds rate:

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