“There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that defines an edge. In other words, based on the past performance of your edge, you may know that out of the next 20 trades, 12 will be winners and 8 will be losers. What you don’t know is the sequence of wins and losses or how much money the market is going to make available on the winning trades. This truth makes trading a probability or numbers game. When you really believe that trading is simply a probability game, concepts like “right” and “wrong” or “win” and “lose” no longer have the same significance. As a result, your expectations will be in harmony with the possibilities.”
Archives of “how much money” tag
rssGet Out When You’re Wrong
Successful traders know that discipline is what allows them to enter their trades when the odds are in their favor and, more importantly, to get out when they’re wrong.
Being right is not the problem. What you do when you’re wrong is the crucial issue.
There are a lot of traders who buy then pray while the market goes against them, because they think that it will eventually go their way.
Most traders average down and wait for the market to turn their way.
Trading my way, I always have defined amount of money that I am willing to lose.
I let the market decide how much money I’m going to make.
Heads or Tails
“There is a random distribution between wins and losses for any given set of variables that defines an edge. In other words, based on the past performance of your edge, you may know that out of the next 20 trades, 12 will be winners and 8 will be losers. What you don’t know is the sequence of wins and losses or how much money the market is going to make available on the winning trades. This truth makes trading a probability or numbers game. When you really believe that trading is simply a probability game, concepts like “right” and “wrong” or “win” and “lose” no longer have the same significance. As a result, your expectations will be in harmony with the possibilities.”
5 Trading quotes for Weekend
-If you are hesitating to take a position, that indicates a lack of confidence that is not necessary. Just get into the position and PLACE A STOP. Day Traders lose money in positions everyday. Keep them small. The confidence you need is not in whether or not you are right, the confidence you need is in knowing you will stick to your stop no matter what. Therefore you can actually alleviate this hesitancy to pull the trigger by continually sticking to your stops and reinforcing this behavior.
-You want to own the stock before it breaks out, then sell it to the momentum players after it breaks out. If you buy breakouts, realize that professional day traders are handing off their positions to you in order to test the strength of the trend. They will typically buy it back below the breakout point which is typically where you will set your stop when you buy a breakout. (In case you ever wondered why you get stopped out on a lot of failed breakouts).
-Embracing your opinion leads to financial ruin. When you find yourself rationalizing or justifying a decline by saying things like, “They are just shaking out weak hands here,” or “The market makers are just dropping the bid here,” then you are embracing your opinion. Don’t hang onto a loser. You can always get back in.
-Professional day traders focus on limiting risk and protecting capital. Amateur traders focus on how much money they can make on each trade. Professionals day traders always take money away from amateurs traders.
-In the stock market, heroes get crushed. Averaging down on a losing position is a “heroic move” that is akin to Superman taking a spoonful of Kryptonite. The stock market is not about blind courage. It is about finesse. Don’t be a hero.
Marty Schwartz- Trading Quotes
The marketplace is an arena and other traders are the adversaries. I turned from a loser to a winner when I was able to separate my ego needs from making money. When I was able to accept being wrong. Before that, admitting I was wrong was more upsetting than losing the money. When I became a winner I went from ‘I figured it out, therefore it can’t be wrong’ to ‘I figured it out, but if I’m wrong, I’m getting the hell out, because I want to save my money and go on to the next trade.’ By living the philosophy that my winners are always in front of me, it is not so painful to take a loss. If I make a mistake, so what! My attitude is: Never risk your family’s security. Whenever you get hit, you are very upset emotionally. Most traders try to make it back immediately; they try to play bigger. Whenever you try to get all your losses back at once, you are most often doomed to fail. After a devastating loss, I always play very small and try to get black ink, black ink. It’s not how much money I make, but just getting my rhythm and confidence back. Before taking a position always know the amount you are willing to lose. The most important thing is money management, money management, money management. Anybody who is successful will tell you the same thing. I always take my losses quickly. That is probably the key to my success. The best advice I can give to the ordinary guy trying to become a better trader is Learn to take losses. The most important thing in making money is not letting your losses get out of hand. |
5 Rogue Traders -They had Broke Banks
So, who are the rogue traders that have experienced all of this? Here’s a small sample (the ones we know of!). They are not in chronological order but in order of how much money they actually lost their banks (from the lowest to the highest):
1. John Rusnak
The guy that brought down the Allfirst Bank and incurred losses of $69.2 million.
He was sentenced to 7.5 years in prison on January 17th 2003 for hiding the losses that he incurred as a currency trader. He hid the losses for a year. He is now under confinement at his home (since January 2009, meaning that he served almost six years for his rogue trading).
He was ordered to pay back $1, 000 per month after his release from prison and despite the fact that he remains in debt to the full sum of $691.2 million he will probably never be able to pay it back. How did it all happen?
- Allfirst Bank wished to make its forex operations go from just hedging to bringing in a yield of profits and thus increase the total profits of the bank.
- John Rusnak was hired to do this.
- Rusnak was bullish on the Yen. He believed that the Yen would not fall any more after the bursting of the Japanese bubble. He believed that the Yen would rise against the Dollar.
- He neglected to hedge his forward contracts believing that the Yen could not fail to rise.
- With the onset of the Asian crisis, the Yen fell.
- He thus entered false options into the systems to make it seem as if the positions were hedged. He also asked for more money from high brokerage accounts in order to try to win back the money that he had already lost.
- The management granted this to him and he invested even more money.
- Rusnak made a personal gain of $550, 000 in bonuses plus his salary.
- The losses only came to light when the bank asked for capital to be released and they realized that Rusnak had been working in the red all the time.
- Rusnak was fired from his position and along with him he brought down 6 senior executives for failing to detect the scam.
One thing is for sure: Rusnak has kept his nose clean since getting out of prison and has managed to fall into relative anonymity. Nobody knows what he’s doing today for work. (more…)