“Emotion is the enemy when trading”: Trading is ruled by fear and greed. Those two sinners thrive on a lack of enough information or trade expectations. The Odds Maker readout collars these guys by revealing a strategy’s odds of success (%) as well as average winners and losers and net gains or losses.
Archives of “greed” tag
rssCharacteristics Of A Losing Trader
1. Undisciplined
2. No money management
3. Unprepared
4. Over trading
5. Easily tilted
6. Does not trade with probabilities
7. Trades emotionally without controlling: greed, hope, fear, and euphoria
8. Does not have a trading plan and strategy
10 Lessons
1. Markets tend to return to the mean over time.
2. Excesses in one direction will lead to an opposite excess in the other direction.
3. There are no new eras – excesses are never permanent.
4. Exponential rising and falling markets usually go further than you think.
5. The public buys the most at the top and the least at the bottom.
6. Fear and greed are stronger than long-term resolve.
7. Markets are strongest when they are broad and weakest when they narrow to a
handful of blue-chips.
8. Bear markets have three stages.
9. When all the experts and forecasts agree – something else is going to happen.
10. Bull markets are more fun than bear markets.
Greed
There was a scorpion, who wanted to cross a river, but cannot as he could not swim.
He asked a frog to carry him across a river.
The frog was afraid of being stung, but the scorpion reassures him that if it stung, the frog would sink and the scorpion would drown as well.
The logic appeals to the Frog, So he then agrees; nevertheless, in mid-river, the scorpion stings him, dooming them both.
When asked why, the scorpion explains, “I’m a scorpion; it’s my nature.”
To let profits run, need to keep Greed at bay, else it will Sting in each and every trade.
Common Trading Mistakes
In trading, as in life in general, we all know that experience is the best teacher. However, failures in stock market trading bear more weight since you stand to lose thousands of dollars (or more) with each mistake that you make. So as to help you recognize red flags and prevent you from losing money further, here is a list of some common mistakes you might want to avoid.
# 1: Lack of proper knowledge
Many people who come into stock trading with the notion that they can simply learn the ropes along the way may be fatally mistaken. This is because this kind of activity requires some degree of stock market know-how, as well as experience. First, you have to learn how to trade stocks, because this is the only that you can be familiar with terms, such as “stocks,” “shares,” “dividends,” “trends,” and so on. Without proper education, you might make decisions that could prove to be costly in the future. If you want to engage in trading, the first rule is for you to learn about the basics-read a book, enroll in a course, attend lectures by experts-anything that can help you understand what this is all about.
# 2: Acting on Impulse
In learning stock trading, you will realize that many emotions may come into play as you go through each and every transaction-impatience, greed, fear, and over confidence are some of these emotions. One of the most common mistakes people commit while trading is making decisions based on impulse. While it is true that you can feel a wide range of emotions as you evaluate the data in front of you, do remember that a cool, logical reasoning must prevail. Do whatever you can to always make decisions on a clear head.
# 3: Not having enough practice
As you engage in trading, the saying that “practice makes perfect” could not be truer. Again, if you want to learn how to trade stocks and are serious about engaging in trading, then you should also enhance your skills apart from just learning the basics. However, you could not afford the trial and error method using real money, because this is impractical and a waste of time. Fortunately, there are now some sophisticated tools that can help you practice through simulated trading and practice accounts. For a fee, companies can help you set up a practice account, through which you can execute “simulated trading.” What this does is it helps you learn how to trade stocks by honing your skills without the risk of losing actual money.
# 4: Having unrealistic expectations
Finally, another common mistake in trading is having unrealistic expectations. Sure, we may have all heard of those who got rich quick because of the stock market, but you cannot expect to earn millions without being able to make sound decisions based on fact. In the process of learning stock trading, you must be able to set a clear set of objectives, and not unrealistic expectations that could lead you to make rash (and costly) decisions.
In the future, try to avoid committing similar mistakes so that you can truly benefit from the time and effort you are trading in the stock market.
Traders Make Decisions based on Probabilities
Most traders take price swings personally. They feel very proud when they make money and love to talk about their profits. When a trade goes against them they feel like punished children and try to keep their losses secret. You can read traders’ emotions on their faces.
Many traders believe that the aim of a market analyst is to forecast future prices. The amateurs in most fields ask for forecasts, while professionals simply manage information and make decisions based on probabilities. Take medicine, for example. A patient is brought to an emergency room with a knife sticking out of his chest – and the anxious family members have only two questions: “Will he survive?” and “when can he go home?” They ask the doctor for a forecast.
But the doctor is not forecasting – he is taking care of problems as they emerge. His first job is to prevent the patient from dying from shock, and so he gives him pain-killers and starts an intravenous drip to replace lost blood. Then he removes the knife and sutures damaged organs. After that, he has to watch against infection. He monitors the trend of a patient’s health and takes measures to prevent complications. He is managing – not forecasting. When a family begs for a forecast, he may give it to them, but its practical value is low. (more…)
Greed & Fear
Greed
As prices rise, they naturally attract more attention. As more and more people jump onboard the rally, its climb accelerates. But in all the excitement, there is a tendency to confuse account balance (the amount actually on your account) with account equity (the total value including the sum of your open positions). People begin to treat their potential profits as if they were already realized. This expectation can sometimes cause basic reversal signals to be overlooked.
Additionally, those who missed out on the opportunity early on, when the trend was still young, are becoming hypnotized by the length and size of the rally. Jumping onboard late is a risky game, however, as those who got in early will eventually need to take their profits. There is also a bit of the “greater fool” factor, as anyone who is still buying is now buying at a higher price, and from a seller who has reason to believe the move may soon be over. The idea then is that hopefully someone will keep on buying after you, at an even higher price, when you eventually decide to become a seller yourself.
Fear
When prices start falling, they awaken fear and panic. Fear is one of our most primal emotions, which explains why prices often fall faster than they rise. People holding longs run for the door trying to sell as quickly as possible, and short sellers motivated by the falling prices add their own orders to the mix as well. When those short orders are eventually covered in order to realize profit, there are temporary rallies which can give false hopes.
This crowd mentality frequently creates moments of market imbalance which can be capitalized upon, once one can learn to recognize the signs and interpret them correctly. Above all else, the key to developing this skill is practice.
Tharp, Trading Beyond the Matrix
Van K. Tharp came up with a terrific title for his latest book—Trading Beyond the Matrix: The Red Pill for Traders and Investors (Wiley, 2013). The reference, of course, is to the film The Matrix. “We live in a world of illusion shaped by our programming. And at some level, we seem to know that, and we seem to know that there is something better. At this point, you have a choice. You can take the blue pill and go back into a comfortable sleep where nothing changes. … Or you take the red pill and, as Morpheus says in the movie, ‘see how deep the rabbit hole goes.’” (pp. xxiv-xxv) (more…)
The Two Trading Problems
The old saying indicates that fear and greed are the emotions that dominate markets.
Eliminating emotion from trading is both impossible and undesirable. The “feel” for markets possessed by the best traders is a form of emotion; Antonio Damasio’s writings on this subject are must reading.
When we become very anxious or frustrated, however, our assessments of risk and reward are impaired: that is the enduring message of behavioral finance research. Regional cerebral blood flows no longer activate those executive parts of the brain responsible for planning, judgment, and decision-making. Rather, we regulate our motor activity as part of “flight or fight”. In the flight mode, we flee from risk and inhibit trading decisions. This leads to immediate safety, but also missed opportunity. In the fight mode, we confront risk and activate trading decisions. This leads to the relief of taking decisive action, but also poses increased possibilities of loss.
With market volatility at record levels, it’s not unusual to experience outsized losses when trades are wrong. These losses place a figurative magnifying glass on our flight or fight responses, activating stress modes at exactly the times we want to be most deliberate and planful. (more…)
Three variable control the stock market
1. Fear
2. Greed
3. Indecision
Fear occurs partly from indecision, and from “loss of gain.” Greed occurs from ignoring all and being fearful of “loss of gain” Indecision occurs around both.