Archives of “Global health” tag

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Coronavirus – US researchers have forecast the death toll to nearly double

  
  Analysis
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The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is used by the White House

  • has forecast a very sharp increase from its last estimate in mid-April
  • due to rising mobility and the easing of social distancing measures in 31 states by May 11.
  • revised forecast death toll to 135,000
  • 3,000 to die each day by the end of May
Sad news indeed.
Pic is from an earlier Trump info session when the forecast had 100k as the minimum,
The University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is used by the White House

Links……..For U

  
Analysis, LINKS
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Staying Safe:

• 24 Hours at the Epicenter of the Coronavirus Pandemic: Doctors, nurses, a congressman, workers in deserted museums and theatres, men on early release from Rikers, and the newly unemployed strained to keep New York City, and themselves, going. (New Yorker)
• What if immunity to covid-19 doesn’t last? (MIT Technology Review)
• ‘Frostbite’ toes and other peculiar rashes may be signs of hidden coronavirus infection, especially in the young (Washington Post)
• We have to wake up: factory farms are breeding grounds for pandemics (The Guardian)

Aid and assistance:

• COVID Tests Are Free, Except When They’re Not (Kaiser Health News)
• Useful table of extended state tax filing deadlines  (Tax Foundation)
• Figuring Out Your Personal Finances Together (Wall Street Journal)

Staying Sane WFH:

• Signs You May Be Burning Out—and What to Do About It (Businessweek)
• “It Is Harrowing. It Is Daunting. It Is Overwhelming”: The Mental Toll of Coronavirus Is Crushing Medical Workers (Vanity Fair)
• Which epidemiologist do you believe? (UnHerd)
• Yuval Noah Harari: ‘Will coronavirus change our attitudes to death? Quite the opposite’ (The Guardian)

Vaccine & Treatment Updates:

• In Race for a Coronavirus Vaccine, an Oxford Group Leaps Ahead (New York Times)
• Some Countries Are Squashing the Coronavirus Curve. Vietnam Is One. (Wall Street Journal)
• Three potential coronavirus vaccines moving ahead in tests (Los Angeles Times)
• When will we get the Covid-19 vaccine? (UnHerd) see also How Long Will a Vaccine Really Take? (New York Times)
• UCSF team has discovered drugs that block coronavirus, paving way for ‘a better drug sooner’ (San Francisco Chronicle)
• The Secret Group of Scientists and Billionaires Pushing a Manhattan Project for Covid-19 (Wall Street Journal)

Resolving the Crisis:

• Dogs are being trained to sniff out coronavirus cases (Washington Post)
• Could contact tracing bring the US out of lockdown? (Vox)
• LA Becomes The First Major City In The US To Offer Free Testing To Every Resident, Even Those With No Symptoms (LAist)
• Why America’s coronavirus testing problem is still so difficult to solve (Vox)
• No Testing, No Treatment, No Herd Immunity, No Easy Way Out (The Atlantic)
• Poop may tell us when the coronavirus lockdown will end (LA Times)
• We Cannot “Reopen” America: The source of the economic shock is not government orders. It’s the pandemic. (The Bulwark)
• Reopening Plans Across U.S. Are Creating Confusing Patchwork (New York Times)

Post-Crisis

• What will cities look like once the lockdown lifts? (King’s College London)
• Five Ways the U.S. Military Will Change After the Pandemic (War on the Rocks)
• Will Travel Change After Coronavirus? Here’s What Experts Have to Say (Travel & Leisure)
• The Office You Left Is Not Going to Be the Office You Return To (Bloomberg)
• One Rich N.Y. Hospital Got Warren Buffett’s Help. This One Got Duct Tape. (New York Times)
• Covid-19’s future: small outbreaks, monster wave, or ongoing crisis (Stat)
• What the Coronavirus Crisis Reveals About American Medicine (New Yorker)
• The Immunity of the Tech Giants: When the pandemic is over, we most certainly should fear the industry more than ever (New York Times)

ECB announces a new coronavirus pandemic response, EUR750bn purchase program

  
  Analysis
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European Central Bank announcement

  • €750 billion pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP)
  • a new temporary asset purchase programme of private and public sector securities to counter the serious risks to the monetary policy transmission mechanism
  • purchases will be conducted until the end of 2020 and will include all the asset categories eligible under the existing asset purchase programme
  • says for the purchases of public sector securities, the benchmark allocation across jurisdictions will continue to be the capital key of the national central banks.
  • says to the extent that some self-imposed limits might hamper action that the ECB is required to take in order to fulfil its mandate, the governing council will consider revising them to the extent necessary
  • says at the same time, purchases under the new PEPPwill be conducted in a flexible manner. this allows for fluctuations in the distribution of purchase flows over time, across asset classes and among jurisdictions.
  • says a waiver of the eligibility requirements for securities issued by the Greek government will be granted for purchases under PEPP.
  • says the governing council is fully prepared to increase the size of its asset purchase programmes and adjust their composition, by as much as necessary and for as longas needed
  • the governing council will terminate net asset purchases under PEPP once it judges that the coronavirus covid-19 crisis phase is over, but in any case not before the end of the year
  • says to expand the range of eligible assets under the corporate sector purchase programme (CSPP) to non-financial commercial paper, making all commercial papers of sufficient credit quality eligible for purchase under CSPP
  • says the governing council of the ECB is committed to playing its role in supporting all citizens of the euro area through this extremely challenging time

Summary Headlines via Reuters

ES futures have flipped around to positive on this supportive announcement after losing ground earlier on the reopening for evening trade.
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There are plenty of responses to these sorts of actions along the lines that they will not ‘cure’ the coronavirus. Correct. Central banks are applying band-aids to mitigate (hopefully) the impacts upon econiomies, doing what they can do. Don’t expect Lagarde, Powell, et al find a miracle medical cure, K?

The coronavirus will be a pandemic, here are 8 things to do

  
Analysis, Education
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Here is a piece from CNN on “Covid-19 will become a pandemic” and “we must do eight things “.

Some of the 8 seem pretty ****ing obvious, eg 4. Improve medical care and prevention of Covid-19.
Well, yeah, OK. Here is the link for the other 7.
#9 is to cut down on sugar, diabetes is gonna kill way more folks than this infection (my 2c)

Should you sell a currency if there is a virus breakout there?

  
  Analysis
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What’s the pandemic trade

What's the pandemic trade
Sooner or later, there will be another country with a coronavirus breakout. Right now authorities are scrambling in South Korea, Iran and Italy.
Given that it started in China, two of those three countries were not at all where you would have expected it to land next. Scarier is that Indonesia — which is a top destination for Chinese travelers — still has zero confirmed cases. US diplomats are increasingly critical of the testing and preparations in the country.
So what if the next big outbreak is in Indonesia? Or what if it’s Australia? Or Canada?
If that happens, I expect the market to sell those currencies. Market reactions are imperfect and that’s an understandable response.
At the same time, there is a certain point where the market comes to realize that the virus is unstoppable. I don’t know if that is 5 countries or 25.
What will matter first is how quickly the case count rises. If it rises 100x like it has in Italy this week, that’s a clear sign of local transmission but the market will react more-quickly and the news comes in dribs-and-drabs.
So you can’t sell on the first case and it’s always tough to get immediate details of where people had recently visited. So it’s a situation where you have to wait for the numbers to rise, but how many cases do you need? There’s no easy answer.
A lot of trades play out like that around the virus because the information is so sketchy. If you told me there was a breakout in Indonesia, I’d sell the rupiah but the reality is that the information is lumpy.
I’d argue that it’s a better idea to focus on the global impacts and reactions than try to pin it down place-by-place.

PBOC says that stock market plunge today is due to some irrational factors

  
Analysis, Global Indices
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Says that impact from the virus outbreak on China’s economy is temporary

  • Stock market plunge also due to panic triggered by ‘herd effect’
  • Virus outbreak will not change China’s long-term economic fundamentals
  • Economic development still has positive factors and shows strong resilience
Chinese authorities have been offering a lot of reassurances during the course of the day and I reckon this rhetoric could be one that keeps up for the rest of the week as they try to inject some calm into markets today.
For some context, the drop in the Chinese equities today is the most since 2015 and the Shanghai Composite recorded its 6th largest % decline since 2000:
SHCOMP

World Health Organization to send international experts to China as soon as possible

  
  Analysis
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World Health Organization on China

The World Health Organization is on the wires saying:
  • WHO has agreed with China that they would send international experts to China as soon as possible to boost understanding and guide global response to the coronavirus outbreak
  • WHO says a better understanding of the transmissibility and severity of the virus is urgently required to guide other countries on appropriate measures
  • It can reconvene its emergency committee on coronavirus on very short notice as needed. Its members are on standby and being informed of developments

What’s wrong with the picture if the World Health Organization has to pander to China during a potential buyers outbreak?

WHO chief has met with China president Xi on coronavirus outbreak – spokesman

  
  Analysis
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WHO chief, Tedros Adhanom, is in China this week to discuss ways of containing the virus outbreak

The spokesman also said that Tedros has met up with top Chinese officials and discussed measures to protect Chinese and foreigners in areas affected by the coronavirus. They are also said to have discussed possible alternatives to evacuations.

Adding that Tedros did not travel to any place outside of Beijing and that the WHO emergency committee is being ‘kept in the loop’ about the situation.
Tedros is also coming under quite a bit of flak after the WHO previously described the virus risk as being “moderate” over the weekend before admitting to their mistake and correcting the risk to “very high in China and at a regional level, and high at a global level”.
It still doesn’t look like they will declare the virus as a public health emergency it seems.
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