Financial Market Analysts have studied the “hemline indicator” for decades. Yet there’s an even deeper connection between fashion trends and the economy’s financial health that most overlook. This three minute clip from the new socionomics documentary History’s Hidden Engine reveals the real significance of what’s in style.
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rssWhat you WILL DO vs. NOT DO is what it comes down to
In trading you MUST take action and control. It’s not the market makers, or the talking heads, or your neighbor, or any of the experts or people you entrust with your money that are causing your losses or your poor investing performance. You are making the decisions, directly or indirectly. Any trading and investing decisions made in your accounts are all DOWNSTREAM from you and your initial decisions, so you can make different ones in the future.
But you must take measurements. You must have a plan. You must assess, then make DECISIONS to GET you to your FINANCIAL, HEALTH and RELATIONSHIP goals.
In trading we teach a very simple and effective way to make consistent profits in the markets. There is a learning curve and much of that curve is you getting to know you. It’s understanding the psychological aspects of trading profitably with consistency and making those thought process changes that are necessary to get you in a winner’s trading mindset.
For many people this is a challenge. The actual steps and actions you must take are not laborious or physically draining, they are simple things that need to be done but will go against the natural instinct to just want to go through each day on ‘autopilot’.
And this is why many a trader who is struggling slips into the ‘blame’ or ‘victim’ game. Being aware of this is important and we are all human and capable of slipping off track……but the key is to catch it early, forgive yourself for it, and then learn and ‘zig zag’ your way back onto the path that will get you to your goals.
15 Rules for Stock Market Traders-Investors
1. Reward is ALWAYS relative to Risk: If any product or investment sounds like it has lots of upside, it also has lots of risk. (If you can disprove this, there is a Nobel waiting for you).
2. Overly Optimistic Assumptions: Imagine the worst case scenario. How bad is it? Now multiply it by 3X, 5X 10X, 100X. Due to your own flawed wetware, cognitive preferences, and inherent biases, you have a strong disinclination – even an inability — to consider the true, Armageddon-like worst case scenario.
3. Legal Docs protect the preparer (and its firm), not you: Ask yourself this question: How often in the history of modern finance has any huge legal document gone against its drafters? PPMs, Sales agreement, arbitration clauses — firms put these in to protect themselves, not your organization. An investment that requires a 50-100 page legal document means that legal rights accrue to the firms that underwrote the offering, and not you, the investor. Hard stop, next subject.
4. Asymmetrical Information: In all negotiated sales, one party has far more information, knowledge and data about the product being bought and sold. One party knows its undisclosed warts and risks better than the other. Which person are you?
5. Motivation: What is the motivation of the person selling you any product? Is it the long term stability and financial health of your organization — or their own fees and commissions?
6. Performance: Speaking of long term health: How significantly do the fees, taxes, commissions, etc., impact the performance of this investment vehicle over time?
7. Shareholder obligation: All publicly traded firms (including iBanks) have a fiduciary obligation to their shareholders to maximize profits. This is far greater than any duty owed to you, the client. Ask yourself: Does this product benefit the S/Hs, or my organization? (This is acutely important for untested products).
8. Other People’s Money (OPM): When handing money over to someone to manage, understand the difference between self-directed management and OPM. What hidden incentives are there to take more risk than would otherwise exist if you were managing your own assets? (more…)
The Inviolable Rules for Traders
1. Reward is always relative to risk: If any product or investment sounds as if it has lots of upside, it also has lots of risk. If you can disprove this, there is a Nobel Prize waiting for you.
2. Asymmetrical information: In all negotiated sales, one party has far more information, knowledge and experience about the product being bought and sold. One party knows its undisclosed warts and risks better than the other. Which party are you?
3.Good advice is priceless: I know, easier said than done. The Street buys the best legal talent, mathematicians and strategists that money can buy. Make sure you have expert advisers and lawyers working for you as well.
4. Motivation:Always ask, what is the motivation of the outfit selling me this product? Is it the long-term stability and financial health of my organization — or their own fees and commissions?
5. Legal documents are created to protect the preparer (and its firm), not you or yours: In the history of modern finance, no large legal document has worked against its drafters. Private placement memorandums, sales agreement, arbitration clauses — firms use these to protect themselves, not you.
6. Performance: How significantly do the fees, interest rates commissions, etc., have an impact on the performance of this investment vehicle over time? Determining for yourself what the actual cost of money is will avoid more heartache in the future.
7. Shareholder obligation: All publicly traded firms (including investment banks and bond underwriters) have a fiduciary obligation to their shareholders to maximize profits. This is far greater than any duty owed of care to you, the client. Always ask yourself whether this new product benefits the shareholders or your organization. (This is acutely important for untested products.)
8. Reputational risk: Who suffers if this investment goes down the drain? Who gets fired or voted out of office if this blows up? Who suffers reputational risk?
9. Keep it simple, stupid (KISS): It’s easy to make things complicated, but it’s very challenging to make them simple. The more complexity brought to a problem, the greater the potential for things to go awry — not just astray, but very, very wrong.
10. There is no free lunch: Repeat after me: There is no free money, no riskless trade, no way to turn lead into gold. If you remember no other rule, this is the one that will save your hide time and again.