- You absolutely must have an edge. In the short run, you can get lucky and make money doing something that has no edge, but expected value will catch up with you. Don’t gloss over this point, because it might just be the single most important thing we can say about trading–you have to have an edge.
- You must be consistent. You must trade with discipline. Nearly everyone who writes anything about trading says these things, but the why is important: you must be consistent because the market is so random. You cannot change your approach based on short-term results because those short term results are confounded by the level of noise in the market. In other words, you can lose doing the right thing and make money doing the wrong thing. Too many traders make adjustments based on evaluating a handful of trades, and this is likely a serious (fatal) error. See point 1: have an edge, and, now, apply that edge with consistent discipline. Markets are random; you don’t have to be.
- Luck matters. There’s no denying that, but so does skill and so does edge. In fact, the more skillful you are as a trader, paradoxically, the more luck matters. (See Mauboussin book and video link near the end of this post.) You can be successful without luck, but the wildly successful traders (who are outliers) always have some significant component of luck. If the overall level of investment skill in the market is rising (far from a certain conclusion, in my opinion), then performance will converge and luck will play a bigger part for the top performers.
- If you understand the part luck plays in your results, you will realize that emotional reactions to your results are largely inappropriate. Yes, that sentence sounds like something a Vulcan (from Star Trek) would say, but it’s true. Too many traders ride the emotional roller coaster from euphoria to depression based on their short term results, and this really doesn’t make sense because you’re letting luck (random fluctuation) jerk your emotions around. (It is worth considering, though, that this works for some traders and may actually help their performance.)
Archives of “Financial economics” tag
rss19+1 Habits Of Wealthy Traders
1. Wealthy traders are patient with winning trades and enormously impatient with losing trades. Yes, I often fell prone to that. I tend to hope too much when things are going bad. I have time stops, but tend to close positions/strategies too early when having a nice gain. Too often I hold on to exit time when losing. I’m constantly working on that bad habit.
2. Wealthy traders realise that making money is more important than being right. Yes, but always hard to realise a loss.
3. Wealthy traders view technical analysis as a picture of where traders are lining up to buy and sell.Disagree, I have never found any evidence that this actually is true.
4. Before they eneter every trade they know where they will exit for either a profit or loss. Disagree, I use time stops. I have never in my testing found any value whatsoever in using targets or stop-loss.
5. They approach trade number 5 with the same conviction as the previous four losing trades. Yes, agree, but noe easy as confidence drops the more losers I have.
6. Wealthy traders use “naked” charts. Yes, I use no traditional indicators. I only use price action.
7. Wealthy traders are comfortable making decisions with incomplete information. Yes, very true. I try to make my trading as simple as possible. I avoid reading news.The only newspaper I read is The Economist. Except from that I only read football/soccer news and investment blogs on the internet. (more…)
Right Trading Mindset
Back test, study charts, and only trade proven strategies: No trading should begin until you know that your system is a historically profitable one through multiple trading environments. There are many ways to do this and the depth of study into your specific trading system is up to you. But if you do not know how what you are currently doing performed historically then you need to stop until you do understand.
- Small losses: Keeping your losses small so you can keep your will and desire to trade strong. Nothing breaks a new traders mindset faster than big, painful losses of capital that are very hard to come back from.
- Build confidence through having winning trades: A lot of the great traders we get to see on social media have built up themselves through many years of learning from failure and then hitting their stride with winning months and winning years. Even if your wins are small, wins will help you build the mindset that you can do this and be successful as a trader. Build yourself up through consistent disciplined trading and winning streaks.
- Trade with the right principles: Trading with the right core trading principles like going with the trend in your time frame, never losing more than 1% of your trading capital on any one trade, and follow your trading plan 100% can go a long way to solidifying your peace of mind as trader knowing you will not do anything that will really hurt yourself in the markets.
Match your beliefs to your trading methodology: We can only effect trade a system that matched our strong beliefs about the markets. If you believe in the nature of trends you have to find the markets that trend and trade them. If you are convinced that market always revert to the mean then a robust mean reversion is what you can comfortably trade. Swing trading for traders that love trading ranges, and day trading for those that want action and no overnight risk. The question is who are you as a trader and what trading style matches your personality and risk tolerance.
High-frequency trading: when milliseconds mean millions
Asked to imagine what a Wall Street share-dealing room looks like and the layman will describe a testosterone-fuelled bear pit crammed full of alpha males in brightly coloured jackets, frantically shouting out bid and offer prices.
He couldn’t be more wrong. Technological advances mean that stocks are now traded digitally on computer servers in often anonymous – but heavily guarded – buildings, generally miles away from the historic epicentres of finance, meaning the brash men in sharp suits depicted in films such as the The Wolf of Wall Street have been dethroned as the kings of finance.
Computer programmers have taken their crown thanks to the code they churn out, which is able to execute trades thousands of times faster than any human. (more…)
Nassim Taleb’s Risk Management Rules of Thumb
Rule No. 1- Do not venture in markets and products you do not understand. You will be a sitting duck.
Rule No. 2- The large hit you will take next will not resemble the one you took last. Do not listen to the consensus as to where the risks are (that is, risks shown by VAR). What will hurt you is what you expect the least.
Rule No. 3- Believe half of what you read, none of what you hear. Never study a theory before doing your own observation and thinking. Read every piece of theoretical research you can-but stay a trader. An unguarded study of lower quantitative methods will rob you of your insight.
Rule No. 4- Beware of the nonmarket-making traders who make a steady income-they tend to blow up. Traders with frequent losses might hurt you, but they are not likely to blow you up. Long volatility traders lose money most days of the week.
Rule No. 5- The markets will follow the path to hurt the highest number of hedgers. The best hedges are those you alone put on. (more…)
Book Review : Jesse Livermore: Boy Plunger
This is a story of triumph and tragedy. Jesse Livermore is notable as one of the few people who ever made it into the richest tiers of society by speculating — by trading stocks and commodities — betting on price movements.
This is three stories in one. Story one is the clever trader with an intuitive knack who learned to adapt when conditions changed, until the day came when it got too hard. Story two is the man who lacked financial risk control, and took big chances, a few of which worked out spectacularly, and a few of ruined him financially. Story three is how too much success, if not properly handled, can ruin a man, with lust, greed and pride leading to his death.
The author spends most of his time on story one, next most on story two, then the least on story three. The three stories flow naturally from the narrative that is largely chronological. By the end of the book, you see Jesse Livermore — a guy who did amazing things, but ultimately failed in money and life.
Let me briefly summarize those three aspects of his life so that you can get a feel for what you will run into in the book:
The Clever Trader
Jesse Livermore came to the stock market in Boston at age 14, and was a very quick study. He showed intuition on market affairs that impressed the most of the older men who came to trade at the brokerage where he worked. It wasn’t too long before he wanted to invest for himself, but he didn’t have enough money to open a brokerage account, so he went to a bucket shop. Bucket shops were gambling parlors where small players gambled on stock prices. He showed a knack for the game and made a lot of money. Like someone who beats the casinos in Vegas, the proprietors forced him to leave.
He then had more than enough money to meet his current needs, and set up a brokerage account. But the stock market did not behave like a bucket shop, and so he lost money while he learned to adapt. Eventually, he succeeded at speculating on both stocks and commodities, leading to his greatest successes in being short the stock market prior to the panic of 1907, and the crash in 1929. During the 1920s, he started his own firm to try to institutionalize his gifts, and it worked for much of the era. (more…)
Day Traders : Read These Rules EveryDay-Spend 10 Minutes
- There is no single true path.
- The universal trait is discipline.
- Trade your personality.
- Failure and perseverance are part of every successful trader’s life.
- Great traders are flexible.
- It takes time to become a successful trader.
- Keep a record of your market observations.
- Develop a trading philosophy.
- What is your edge? Big picture tech, change, on the cusp, understand big trend before others, shifts.
- Confidence is important, and you build it from hard work.
- Hard work.
- Obsessiveness.
- Market wizards are innovators, not followers.
- To be a winner you have to be willing to take a loss!
- Risk control. Stop-loss, or reducing position size, limit initial position size, short selling.
- You can’t be afraid of risk
- Some limit downside by focusing on undervalued stocks. (but still can drop.)
- Value alone is not enough. Need catalysts.
- The importance of catalysts.
- Focus not only on when to get in, but when to get out
Emotions and Mindset
Emotional stability and discipline is the foundation upon which a trader has to build his trading methodology. Without the ability to control emotions and the impulsive trading decisions emotions cause, the best trading system and the best thought-out risk management approach are useless.
I truly feel that I could give away all my secrets and it wouldn’t make any difference. Most people can’t control their emotions or follow a system. – Linda Raschke
Markets are never wrong – opinions often are. – Jesse Livermore
I don’t get caught up in the moment. – Ray Dalio
If you argue with the market, you will lose. – Larry Hite
The psychological factor for investing has 5 areas. These include a well-rounded personal life, a positive attitude, the motivation to make money, lack of conflict [such as psychological hang ups about success], and responsibility for results. -Dr. Van K. Tharp
It is hard enough to know what the market is going to do; if you don’t know what you are going to do, the game is lost. – Alexander Elder
These quote highlight the fact that, before you get into the nitty-gritty of your trading system and try to tweak your stop loss or take profit placement, you have to work on your discipline. It is not a stop loss order that should have been placed 5 points higher or lower that makes the difference between a consistently losing and a profitable trader, but the degree to how a trader can avoid emotionally caused trading mistakes.
40 One Liners For Traders
1. Trading is simple, but it is not easy.
2. When you get into a trade watch for the signs that you might be wrong.
3. Trading should be boring.
4. Amateur traders turn into professional traders once they stop looking for the “next great indicator.”
5. You are trading other traders, not stocks or futures contracts.
6. Be very aware of your own emotions.
7. Watch yourself for too much excitement.
8. Don’t overtrade.
9. If you come into trading with the idea of making big money you are doomed.
10. Don’t focus on the money.
11. Do not impose your will on the market.
12. The best way to minimize risk is to not trade when it is not time to trade.
13. There is no need to trade five days a week.
14. Refuse to damage your capital.
15. Stay relaxed. (more…)
10 Most Foolish Things a Trader Can Do
The Ten Most Foolish Things a Trader Can Do
- Try to predict the future movement of a stock, and stay in it no matter what.
- Risk your entire account on one trade with no stop loss plan.
- Have a winning trade but no exit strategy to get out, no trailing stop or exhaustion top signal.
- Ask for and follow the advice of others instead of trading with your own trading plan, method, rules, and system.
- Trade your emotions instead of signals: buy when you are greedy and sell when you are afraid.
- Trade your opinions, not a quantified method.
- Do not bother to do your homework on trading, just jump in and trade, you are smart, you will figure it out.
- Short the best and most expensive stocks in the stock market and buy the cheapest junk stocks.
- Put on trades you are 100% sure are winners so you do not even need a stop loss or risk management.
- Buy more of a trade that you are losing money in and sell your winners quickly to lock in small profits.