- We will only take the very best trade set ups in 2015 discarding the average and mediocre ones.We want each trade to have an excellent risk/reward ratio.
- We will position size based on the worse case scenario for volatility and range expansion not what I think is a safe bet.
- We will use more option contracts when their volume permits in my trades to limit my risk to the size of the option contract instead of using so much capital to trade equities.
- We will limit my total risk exposure to only two trades on at a time.
- We will focus on limiting my losses and drawdowns in 2015 to in return maximize my gains.
- We will be looking to structure trades for a more consistent monthly return by trading stock indexes primarily.
- We will focus on understanding the emotions that arise during my trades, each trade will be made with a clean slate focused exclusively on current price action.
- We will be in absolutely no hurry to place trades. I will be waiting for trades to come to me.
- We will flow with the patterns and price action of the markets and restrain from bias and options. Signals will be my guide.
- We will double my efforts in backtests and chart pattern studies of historical charts.
Archives of “Financial economics” tag
rssFree 34 page technical analysis book to download
I cam across this yesterday and though it might be interesting for some weekend technical analysis reading. I haven’t read it yet.
Its from the Market Technicians Association, the August issue of “Technically Speaking”.
Free download etc. etc. The link is here.
Whats in it? …
How I Made $2,000,000 in the Stock Market by Nicolas Darvas
Excerpt: “Hungarian by birth, Nicolas Darvas trained as an economist at the University of Budapest. Reluctant to remain in Hungary until either the Nazis or the Soviets took over, he fled at the age of 23 with a forged exit visa and fifty pounds sterling to stave off hunger in Istanbul, Turkey. During his off hours as a dancer, he read some 200 books on the market and the great speculators, spending as much as eight hours a day studying. Darvas invested his money into a couple of stocks that had been hitting their 52-week high. He was utterly surprised that the stocks continued to rise and subsequently sold them to make a large profit. His main source of stock selection was Barron’s Magazine. At the age of 39, after accumulating his fortune, Darvas documented his techniques in the book, How I Made 2,000,000 in the Stock Market. The book describes his unique “Box System”, which he used to buy and sell stocks. Darvas’ book remains a classic stock market text to this day.”
The war against ‘insider trading 2.0’
In India u can fight for Poverty or can try to stop Corruption…….But u can’t stop INSIDER TRADING-It’s our Challenge
Insider trading is a fluid concept. Until 1980, the practice was not illegal in the UK. Prior to then, tipping off favoured clients about market-sensitive company information was a stockbroker’s job description, rather than an illegal activity. Times have changed and so has the pace of financial markets.
In 2009, Samantha Bee, one of the cast members on The Daily Show, the satirical US television programme, said that “if I know about a stock’s activity the day before, it’s called insider trading. But if I know about a stock’s activity one second before, it’s called high-frequency trading.”
Now, however, Eric Schneiderman, the New York attorney-general, is waging war on what he calls “insider trading 2.0”. He is taking aim at the precise time sensitive information is delivered electronically.
Mr Schneiderman’s office is currently investigating the market data industry. In July, under pressure from Mr Schneiderman, Thomson Reuters suspended its practice of releasing consumer survey data from the University of Michigan (UoM) two seconds earlier to high-frequency trading clients who paid an additional fee. Clients paying for Thomson Reuters’ financial information terminals will continue to receive the data five minutes ahead of the general public, who have to make do with a press release. (more…)
23 Trading Lessons
1. All successful traders use methods that suit their
personality; You are neither Waren Buffett nor George Soros nor Jesse Livermore; Don’t assume you can trade like them.
2. What the market does is beyond your control; Your reaction to the market, however, is not beyond your control. Indeed, its the ONLY thing you can control.
3. To be a winner, you have to be willing to
take a loss;
4. HOPE is not a word in the winning Trader’s vocabulary;
5. When you are on a
losing streak — and you will eventually find yourself on one — reduce your position size;
6. Don’t underestimate the time it
takes to succeed as a trader — it takes 10 years to become very good at anything;
7. Trading is a vocation — not a
hobby
8. Have a business/trading plan;
9. Identify your greatest weakness, Be honest — and DEAL with it (more…)
Trading vs investing
But let’s use a couple of examples:
– trading: I buy a basket of stocks this morning with the intention of reselling before the close
– investing: I build a portfolio of stocks with the intention to keep it a relatively long time, because I think that these stocks value will increase due to whatever reason, growth, value, the economy…
I also like the following classification, which I believe comes from Minsky:
– Profits on the position neither depend on price variation of the asset, nor on cost of carry: I am investing.
– Profits do not depend on price variation, but only on positive carry: I am trading.
– Profit depend on price variation of the asset: I am speculating.
The example and the definition are not equivalent, but they give a rough idea of what trading is and what investing is. The border between both activities can be blurry. But if you invest, you do not need a market. You can buy a bond with the intention of holding it to maturity. If you trade, you need a market to close the trades.
Herd Behavior in Financial Markets
Over the last twenty-five years, there has been a lot of interest in herd behavior in financial markets—that is, a trader’s decision to disregard her private information to follow the behavior of the crowd. A large theoretical literature has identified abstract mechanisms through which herding can arise, even in a world where people are fully rational. Until now, however, the empirical work on herding has been completely disconnected from this theoretical analysis; it simply looked for statistical evidence of trade clustering and, when that evidence was present, interpreted the clustering as herd behavior. However, since decision clustering may be the result of something other than herding—such as the common reaction to public announcements—the existing empirical literature cannot distinguish “spurious” herding from “true” herd behavior.
In this post, we describe a novel approach to measuring herding in financial markets, which we employed in a recently published paper. We develop a theoretical model of herd behavior that, in contrast to the existing theoretical literature, can be brought to the data, and we show how to estimate it using financial markets transaction data. The estimation strategy allows us to distinguish “real” herding from “spurious herding,” or the simple clustering of trading behavior. Our approach allows researchers to gauge the importance of herding in a financial market and to assess the inefficiency in the process of price discovery that herding causes.
The Model
Let’s give an overview of the model that we brought to the data and try to explain why herding would arise. In the model, an asset is traded over many days; at the beginning of each day, an event may occur that changes the fundamental value of the asset. If an event occurs, some traders (informed traders) receive (private) information on the new asset value; although this information may be imprecise, these traders do know that something occurred in the market to alter the value of the asset. The other traders in the market trade for reasons not related to information, such as liquidity or hedging motives. If no event occurs, all traders only trade for non-informational reasons. (more…)
Seven Things Successful Traders Do
1. Develop information avenues for market conditions and upcoming events
There are many factors that go into driving price action. Quite a few of these things are publicly known and broadcast far in advance. Find yourself a website that offers a calendar of upcoming economic events that can have an affect on currencies you trade. There is always the threat of getting whipsawed out of a position that looks pristine with the impact that news has on the markets.
Listening to analysts and advisers can provide insight on circumstances you may have overlooked. On the other hand, you want to be careful about basing your trading decisions on the information provided by one or two other people. Each trading you decision you make needs to be the right one for you, for your strategy, for your profitability. There are a lot of analysts out there and not all of them have a good grasp on what they are talking about.
2. Strive for consistency to generate repeated, positive results
Humans are creatures of habit. Working to turn your habit into instinct will provide a significant edge in your trading analysis. How do you do that? Repetition. A trader must continuously practice their method, edge, and trading circumstances to make it a natural extension of themselves. One could look at a martial artist as a metaphor for this practice. The martial artist practices, practices, and practices more to make their maneuvers an extension of their person so they don’t have to think about them when the time arises. Traders should do the same to incorporate their trading plan and practices into successful execution. (more…)
Trading Thought For Traders
“When a market is going straight up, the natural inclination of many traders is to try calling a top. Active market players have strong desire to be the market-timing genius that nails the precise moment that a trend has come to an end. The attempt is understandable — but is it smart? In theory, you should be able to make a ton of money if you can do this with some precision, but the reality is that this is usually more of an exercise in ego than
anything else — and it doesn’t tend to produce a big profit, either. What happens when people engage in this game is that they rack up a series of losses as their trades are stopped out and they try again. The tendency is to justify the behavior by saying, “I was just a little early, but this time I’m going to nail it.” If you try long enough, you will eventually be right, but what we never hear about is how much money has been lost in the process. Would you have better off simply staying with the trend and only selling once you saw some weakness? In addition to the cost of losses on premature short positions, there is another hefty price: the profit you have lost by failing to stick with the trends. It is hard enough to keep pace with the market trend when you are long. It is just plain impossible when you are obsessed with trying to call a market turn. The combination of being on the wrong side of the
market, along with the opportunity cost of premature shorts, should give pause to anyone who is trying to time market turns.” –
Stock Market Rules to Remember in 2014
Technical analysis is a windsock, not a crystal ball. It is a skill that improves with experience and study. Always be a student, there is always someone smarter than you!
• “Thou Shall Not Trade Against the Trend.”
• Let volatility work in your favor, not against you.
• Watch what our “Politicos” do, not say.
• Markets tend to regress to the mean over time.
• Emotions can be the enemy of the trader and investor, as fear and greed play an important part of one’s decision making process.
• Portfolios heavy with underperforming stocks rarely outperform the stock market!
• Even the best looking chart can fall apart for no apparent reason. Thus, never fall in love with a position but instead remain vigilant in managing risk and expectations. Use volume as a confirming guidepost.
• When trading, if a stock doesn’t perform as expected within a short time period, either close it out or tighten your stop-loss point. (more…)