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20 Trading Thoughts

  
  Education
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1.    You have to have passion for learning to trade; passion is the energy that you need to take you to your goals.

2.    You have to have the perseverance to keep going after you want to give up.  90% of new traders quit when they were very frustrated while 100% of successful traders didn’t quit until they reached their goals

3.    New traders spend too much time looking for what to trade instead of focusing on who they are as traders.  You have to know who you are as trader first then you can start building your trading system.

4.    Traders have to be able to manage their stress by trading inside their current comfort zone. Traders have to grow themselves and trade size step by step.

5.    The vast majority of new traders fail simply because they did not do their homework before they started trading.

6.    A trader has to build a trading system that matches their own personality and risk tolerance levels.

7.    A trader that chooses to be master a specific type of trading method or trading vehicles has a much better chance of success than the traders that just dabble in many different things and never make much progress.

8.    A trader has to write a good trading plan while the market is closed to guide their trading while the market is open.

9.    A trading plan has to be followed with discipline to have a chance at success.

10.    A trader has to manage their behavior by acting consistently with their own rules. (more…)

15 Ways to Manage Trader Stress

  
  Education
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  1. Only risk 1% of total trading capital per trade with stop losses and proper position sizing. Proper positions sizing makes the emotional impact of any one trade only one of the next one hundred a totally different mental perspective than an all in/have to be right Hail Mary trade.

  2. Only trade a  position size you are comfortable with.
  3. Trade a method or system you believe in based on back testing of a positive expectancy.
  4. Know where you will get out of a trade before you get in.
  5. Only trade with a detailed trading plan.
  6. Believe in your ability to follow your trading plan. YOu must have faith in yourself to lower your stress levels.
  7. Know yourself as a trader and only take your kind of trades. Take trades that will leave no regrets because they were good trades regardless of out comes. (more…)

Paul Tudor Jones Trend Following Wisdom

  
  Education
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Paul Tudor Jones was featured in Market Wizards and is one of the successful trend followers. In the Market Wizards book there are some interesting quotes & trading tips that are important for all stock traders & trend followers.

Quoting Paul Tudor Jones

“I become quicker and more defensive. I am always thinking about losing money as opposed to making money.”

“Risk control is the most important thing in trading.”

“Don’t be a hero”.

“Don’t have an ego.”

“Always question yourself and your ability”.

“I am more scared now that I was at any point since I began trading, because I recognize how ephemeral success can be in this business. I know that to be successful, I have to be frightened. My biggest hits have always come after I have had a great period and I started to think that I knew something.”

“One of my strengths is that I view anything that has happened up to the present point in time as history. I really don’t care about the mistake I made three seconds ago in the market. What I care about is what I am going to do from the next moment on. I try to avoid any emotional attachment to a market.”

“I never apologize to anybody, because I don’t get paid unless I win.”

“When you get a range expansion, the market is sending you a very loud, clear signal that the market is getting ready to move in the direction of that expansion.”

“Advice: don’t focus on making money; focus on protecting what you have.”

“Trading gives you an incredibly intense feeling of what life is all about.”

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts, commodity options or forex can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results. You should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources.

Nassim Taleb’s Risk Management Rules of Thumb

  
  Education
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Rule No. 1- Do not venture in markets and products you do not understand. You will be a sitting duck.

Rule No. 2- The large hit you will take next will not resemble the one you took last. Do not listen to the consensus as to where the risks are (that is, risks shown by VAR). What will hurt you is what you expect the least.

Rule No. 3- Believe half of what you read, none of what you hear. Never study a theory before doing your own observation and thinking. Read every piece of theoretical research you can-but stay a trader. An unguarded study of lower quantitative methods will rob you of your insight.

Rule No. 4- Beware of the nonmarket-making traders who make a steady income-they tend to blow up. Traders with frequent losses might hurt you, but they are not likely to blow you up. Long volatility traders lose money most days of the week. (more…)

Managing Emotions

  
  Education
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The hardest thing about trading is not the math, the method, or picking the right stock, currency, commodity, or futures contract.  The most difficult thing about trading is dealing with the emotions that arise with trading itself. From the stress of actually entering a trade, to the fear of losing the paper profits that you are holding in a winning trade, and most importantly dealing with the emotional lows of a string of losses or the highs of many consecutive wins the bottom line is how you deal with those emotions will determine your long term success in trading more than any other one thing.

To manage your emotions first of all you must trade a robust trading methodology that is profitable and you have to know that it will be a winner in the long term if you stay disciplined. You also must trade your method with proper position sizing and risk management to keep the volume down on your emotions and ego. If you have that the next step is the management of your emotions.

You must understand that every trade is not going to be a winner and not blame yourself for equity drawdowns if you are trading with discipline.

Do not bet your entire account on any one trade, in fact risking only 1% of your total capital on any one trade is the best thing you can do for your stress levels and to bring your risk of ruin to virtually zero. (more…)

The best pieces of trading advice

  
  Education
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Here is some great trading advice I have gathered around the web. These were either answers from real traders to the question “What is the best trading advice you ever received?” Or it was advice given be successful traders when asked “What one piece of advice would you give to traders?”  There are some gems in here.

Don’t treat trades like their actual cash, separate the thought of money lost and focus on the next gain.

Always use stop losses.

Don’t trade with funds you can’t afford to lose.

Don’t be obsessed by indicators .

Always, always,  put in a trailing stop and take your profit.

Decide what kind of trader you wish to be. Do you want to be a day-trader, a short term trader, or a longer term trader?

The Holy Grail of investing/trading is risk management. If you don’t have an exit strategy or proper position sizing, you are gambling. I recommend all traders spend 90% of their time perfecting risk management, and success will come with time. -Damien Hoffman

Cut losses, cut losses, cut losses. If I followed my own advice, my email would be unlisted or a Hawaii address. -Howard Lindzon (more…)

Greg Steinmetz’s The Richest Man Who Ever Lived -Book Review

  
  Education
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Well, maybe. The other day I read that Mansa Musa, who ruled West Africa’s Malian Empire in the Middle Ages, was the richest person in history, with a personal net worth of $400 billion at the time of his death. Greg Steinmetz’s The Richest Man Who Ever Lived (Simon & Schuster, 2015) isn’t about Mansa Musa, however, but about Jacob/Jakob Fugger (1459-1525), the groundbreaking banker and mining magnate from Augsburg, Germany.

In support of his “richest man” claim, Steinmetz used a metric that he admits is flawed: comparing a person’s net worth with the size of the economy in which he operated. An alternative method, measuring Fugger by his worth in gold, “a method that has the virtue of adjusting for inflation, chops him down to a mere $50 million, making him no wealthier than, say, a successful real estate developer or a multilocation car dealer. That’s not right either.” (p. 202)

Fortunately, for the merit of Steinmetz’s book–which is quite a good read, especially for anyone interested in economic history–Fugger’s rank among the richest really doesn’t matter. Fugger was important not only because he was so rich but because he helped make lending a mainstream capitalist tool and because he was influential in shaping European politics.

Steinmetz summarizes Fugger’s business career:

(more…)

Speculation has always been a part of the market and always will be.

  
  Education
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It was the spring of 1976. Investors were still licking their wounds from the severe bear market of 1973-74. Donaldson, Lufkin & Jenrette, an investment bank, was hosting a conference that matched two investing legends onstage at the same time — Ben Graham and Charles Ellis.

Ellis, moderating a Q&A, asked Graham why the mid-1970s were such a disaster in the stock market for most investors. Graham replied that, “most investment professionals, although possessing above average intelligence, lacked an overall understanding of common stocks.”

As told by Robert Hagstrom in his book Latticework: The New Investing, here’s where Ellis and Graham picked up after the conference:

After the seminar, Graham and Ellis spent some time together, and the conversation continued. The problem with our industry, Graham insisted, is not speculation per se; speculation has always been a part of the market and always will be. Our failure as professionals, he went on, is our continuing inability to distinguish between investment and speculation. If professionals can’t make that distinction, how can individuals investors? The greatest danger investors face, Graham warned, is acquiring speculative habits without realizing they have done so. Then they will end up with a speculator’s return — not a wise move for someone’s life savings. (more…)

12 Truths-Traders Should Know

  
  Education
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1. Stock prices run in cycles. Periods of re-pricing are usually quick and powerful and then they are followed by trendless consolidation.

2. Stocks are very highly correlated during drastic selloffs and during the initial stage of the recovery. In general, correlation is high during bear markets.

3. Bull markets are markets of stocks, where there are both winners and losers. When the market averages consolidate, there are stocks that will break out or down, revealing the intentions of institutional buyers.

4. In the first and last stage of a new bull market, the best performers are small cap, low float, low-priced stocks.

5. Try to trade in the direction of the trend. It is not only the path of least resistance, but also provides the best profit opportunities. Have a simple method to define the direction of the trend.

6. Traders’ attention (and market volume) is attracted by unusual price moves. Sudden price range expansion from a consolidaiton is often the beginning of a powerful new trend.

7. Opportunity cost matters a lot. Be in stocks that move. Stocks in a range are dead money. (more…)

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