Archives of “finance” tag

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5 Mistakes -Traders Always Do

  
  Education
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Over trading

Most new traders think that they must always be long or short the market. They lose a lot of money during certain market stages like corrections, high volatility, or bear markets. Sometimes the best position is cash. Sometimes the best trade is no trade. Sometimes their is no signal just chaos. Profitable trading is taking signals for trades that have good odds for success and the right risk/reward ratio for your win rate expectations. Cash is a position in itself. The less I trade the more money I make.

Ignorant of their own ignorance

The more you don’t know, the more sure you are that you know everything. New traders many times do not understand the danger of big losses. They also do not understand the mental and emotional strain of having on trades with real money in real time. A lot of hubris and arrogance is born out of not being humbled by the markets. Looking at historical charts and past history is nothing like holding positions in real time.With skin in the game and not being able to see the hard right edge of the chart as it unfolds is a different experience than theories, back tests, and reading trading books. The real traders I know that have a ton of experience are humble and know that they don’t know the future. (more…)

15 Points For Traders

  
  Education
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  1. For a trader to be successful their intellect must defeat their ego.

  2. A trader must use probabilities to overcome their own personal opinions.

  3. A trader has to use risk management to overcome the hope that a losing trade will turn around and just take the original stop loss plan.

  4. A trader must allow the actual price action to overcome any personal directional bias.

  5. A trader has to let a trailing stop overcome their desire to take profits too early early in a trade.

  6. Successful traders use their passion and goals to overcome their tendencies to laziness or procrastination in doing their trading homework.

  7. A profitable trader has learned to allow patience to overcome their desire to trade before they get a real entry signal.

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36 Points For Traders

  
Analysis, Education
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  1. You absolutely have to find a vent to release pressure and adrenaline – sports, drinking, painting, anything that helps.
  2. If you can manage to find a mentor in which you believe, you will make it much faster.
  3. Your trading style has to fit your personality and your lifestyle, or cognitive dissonance will get the better of you.
  4. Meditation sucks, doesn’t work for me.
  5. Overtrading is your death.
  6. Once you are comfortable missing a move, you will be able to trade profitably.
  7. Not trading the news does not make sense at all – during news there is real liquidity and a real interest to push prices in one way or another. Let the market show its hand, then get in.
  8. Let it turn, let price create structure, THEN get in, with the structure as protection in your back.
  9. Don’t system hop, but adapt the system of your choosing to your needs.
  10. Don’t trade overleveraged.
  11. Yes, it is possible to turn a small account into a huge account, but don’t expect it to happen overnight, and don’t expect to be able to do it before your fifth (or so) year of trading.
  12. Some are faster, some are slower, some will never get it.
  13. Risk per trade is a function of the volatility of your strategy and your psychological ability to deal with swings in your equity.
  14. Know exactly why you are trading, and what you want to achieve – which career path will be yours?
  15. Daytrading is not easier than swingtrading or vice versa. They both simply require different skillsets, different abilities (yes, some people are just too slow for daytrading) and different preparation routines.
  16. Trust your gut. Absolutely love the trade? Get in. Don’t love it? Just stay out.
  17. No pain, no gain. Demo trading is ok, but don’t do it for too long. Risk micro amounts of money, get used to losing money. Because you will lose for the rest of your life if you want to be a trader. It’s part of the game. You “just” need to win more than you lose.
  18. Listening to music while trading can be a good thing – just know yourself. If I listen to aggressive music in the car, I will push the pedal to the metal. The same happens when trading.
  19. Have a trading journal and review, review, review.
  20. Work on your psychology, but don’t underestimate the power of knowledge. Fear stems from not knowing. Work hard, know more, be more confident. Most psychological issues will dissolve into thin air.
  21. Yes, I said: don’t system hop. But for the first year or two, try out everything you can. Every market, every strategy, every trading style. How can you know what fits your personality if you don’t know what’s out there? Finally, decide and take the leap of faith.
  22. Screen time alone won’t help you. Again: review. REVIEW! You need an effective feedback loop or you will repeat the same mistakes again, and again, and again. There is no learning by doing in trading.
  23. You don’t need to be hyper intelligent to be a trader. The best traders I know are “simple” minds. They do what works, they have no ego, and they disregard what does not make sense to them.
  24. Do not have monetary goals. Have process-oriented goals.
  25. Do not look at your P&L during your trading session or you WILL trade your P&L. Before and after a trading session, the money in your account is money, yes. During the session, however, the money in your account is ammunition that has to be spent in order to acquire more ammunition, if that makes sense.
  26. Trading with the trend is not easier than trading against the trend. Trading with the trend is the last thing I learned and every single trader I know seems to have the hardest time following a trend.
  27. If you want to pay for education, do your research. It is very possible to differentiate the scammers from the real traders. If something sounds too good to be true, run as fast as you can.
  28. Never forget to be grateful at the end of the day. You are given the chance to make money by clicking a mouse from the comfort of your home. How many people on earth can say the same?
  29. Trading fulltime is often romanticized but can quickly turn into a social nightmare. Keep up that work-life-balance.
  30. Find other mental challenges for your brain than trading. Feeding your body McDonalds everyday will, and nothing else, will kill you. Trading every day without reading a good novel once in a while will make you braindead.
  31. Likewise, there are lots of videos on Youtube with quite good content. You need to find a way to distinguish the goodies from the baddies.
  32. Don’t be mistaken, trading is gambling. You want to be a professional gambler? Make up your mind.
  33. A structured pre-trading routine is one of the best things you will ever do in your career as a trader. Take your time to create and establish it.
  34. Learn your basic and classic price patterns such as Head & Shoulders, Wedges, Triangles, etc. It takes a week to get them all into your head and you will profit from that knowledge for years to come.
  35. Never pick tops and bottoms. Take the middle of the moves and your results will improve.
  36. Believe in your abilities and trust your strategy or you will be destroyed.

That’s it for now. I have plenty more of these in my tattered and very, very old notebook. Which do you agree with, which not? Do you want more of my wartime wisdoms? Let me know in the comments below!

Active Traders-Must Read These 42 Points

  
  Education
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What if you could read the principles for success for some of the world’s greatest traders? Well you can, here is how author Jack Schwager summed up the the similarities of the ‘Market Wizards’ he spent years interviewing in his second book.

The following is an summarized excerpt from Jack D Schwager’s book, The New Market Wizards. I highly recommend this book for all active traders.

  1. First Things First
    You sure you really want to trade ? It is common for people who think they want to trade to discover that they really don’t.
  2. Examine Your Motives
    Why do you really want to trade ? Did you say excitement ? Then don’t waste your money in market, you might be better off riding a roller coaster or taking up hand gliding.
    The market is a stern master. You need to do almost everything right to win. If parts of you are pulling in opposite directions, the game is lost before you start.
  3. Match The Trading Method To Your Personality
    It is critical to choose a method that is consistent with your your own personality and conflict level.
  4. It Is Absolutely Necessary To Have An Edge
    You cant win without an edge, even with the world’s greatest discipline and money management skills. If you don’t have an edge, all that money management and discipline will do for you is to guarantee that you will gradually bleed to death. Incidentally, if you don’t know what your edge is, you don’t have one.
  5. Derive A Method
    To have an edge, you must have a method. The type of method is not important, but having one is critical-and, of course, the method must have an edge.
  6. Developing A Method Is Hard Work
    Shortcuts rarely lead to trading success. Developing your own approach requires research, observation, and thought. Expect the process to take lots of time and hard work. Expect many dead ends and multiple failures before you find a successful trading approach that is right for you. Remember that you are playing against tens of thousands of professionals. Why should you be any better ? If it were that easy, there would be a lot more millionaire traders.
  7. Skill Versus Hard Work
    The general rule is that exceptional performance requires both natural talent and hard work to realize its potential. If the innate skill is lacking, hard work may provide proficiency, but not excellence.
    Virtually anyone can become a net profitable trader, but only a few have the inborn talent to become supertraders ! For this reason, it may be possible to teach trading success, but only upto a point. Be realistic in your goals.
  8. Good Trading Should Be Effortless
    Hard work refers to the preparatory process – the research and observation necessary to become a good trader – not to the trading itself.
    “In trading, just as in archery, whenever there is effort, force, straining, struggling, or trying, it’s wrong. You’re out of sync; you’re out of harmony with the market. The perfect trade is one that requires no effort.”
  9. Money Management and Risk Control
    Money management is even more important than the trading method. 

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Are You A Subjective or Objective Trader?

  
  Education
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Subjective: Based on or influenced by personal feelings, tastes, or opinions.Proceeding from or taking place in a person’s mind rather than the external world.

Subjective traders they are intertwined with their trades.Their signals are generally entering out of greed and exiting based on their own internal fear. The believe in their opinions more than the actually price action. They base trades off of whether they are feeling good or bad about a particular trade. A subjective trade comes out of the imagination of the trader, from their own beliefs, opinions, and what “should” happen in their view. Many times reality is not even cross checked as a reference, and if it is the subjective traders sees what they want to see instead of what is really going on. Their compass is their emotions and they have internal goals other than making money.

Objective: (Of a person or their judgment) not influenced by personal feelings or opinions in considering and representing facts. Having actual existence or reality.

Objective traders have a quantified method, a system, rules, and principles they trade by. They know where they will get in based on facts, and where they will get out based on price action. Objective traders have a written trading plan to guide them. The guides of the objective trader is historical price action, charts, probabilities, risk management, and their edge. They react to what is happening in reality in quantifiable terms that can be measured. They go with the flow of price action not the flow of internal emotions. (more…)

20 Principles of Successful Traders

  
  Education
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They have the resilience to come back from early losses and account blow ups.

They focus on what really matters in trading success.

They have developed a trading method that fits their own personality.

They trade with an edge.

The harder they work at trading the luckier they get.

They do the homework to develop a methodology through researching ideas. (more…)

Traders -3 Points U All Must Read

  
  Education
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Valuation alone is insufficient reason to get short a stock — History teaches us that cheap stocks can get cheaper, dear stocks can get more expensive

ALWAYS work with a pre-determined loss – either a physical or mental stop loss — Never leave yourself open to infinite losses

Fundamentals tell you WHY to short something, not WHEN to short it. ALWAYS have some technical confirmation before shorting. Make a short selling wish list, then WAIT for technical confirmation.

Diagnosing trading problems.

  
  Education
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A good physician knows that, before cure comes a diagnosis. You cannot treat a problem before you identify what that problem is.

All too often, traders assume that their performance problems are due to a single cause: trading the wrong chart pattern or indicator, having the wrong mindset, etc. As a result, they seek out one trading guru or coach after another, only to see their P/L head steadily south.

The reality is that there are quite a few reasons why trading might be unprofitable. Figuring out which might apply to you is the first step is getting the right help.

Here’s a fourfold scheme that I have found helpful in conceptualizing trading problems:

1) Problems of training and experience – Many traders put their money at risk well before they have developed their own trading styles based on the identification of an objective edge in the marketplace. They are not emotionally prepared to handle risk and reward, and they are not sufficiently steeped in markets to separate randomness from meaningful market patterns. They are like beginning golfers who decide to enter a competitive tournament. Their frustrations are the result of lack of preparation and experience. The answer to these problems is to develop a training program that helps you develop confidence and competence in identifying meaningful market patterns and acting upon those. Online trading rooms, where you can observe experienced traders apply their skills, are helpful for this purpose.

2) Problems of changing markets – When traders have had consistent success, but suddenly lose money with consistency, a reasonable hypothesis is that markets have changed and what once was an edge no longer is profitable. This happened to many momentum traders after the late 1990s bull market, and it also has been the case for many scalpers after volatility came out of the stock indices. Here the challenge is to remake one’s trading, either by retaining the core strategy and seeking other markets with opportunity or by finding new strategies for one’s market. The answer to these problems is to reduce your trading size and re-enter a learning curve to become acquainted with new markets and methods. Figuring out how you learned the markets initially will help you identify steps you need to take to relearn new patterns.  (more…)

The 5 Faiths Needed for Trading Success

  
  Education
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While trading is a game of math, probabilities, charts, and earnings it is also a mind game. Many times a trader’s beliefs will determine their success more than anything else. All traders start out believing it is possible to make money in the markets. Many want to earn their living one day by trading. However it is perseverance, beliefs, and mental determination that will determine who wins and who just quits. Shockingly the majority of millionaire traders lost most of their accounts when they started or they experienced huge draw downs while learning lessons the hard way.

With my own experiences and reading many of their stories here are the five faiths I believe a trader needs to have to win big and make money consistently in the markets.

 

  1. You must have faith in yourself. You must believe that you can trade as well as anyone else.. This belief arises from doing your homework and staying disciplined in your system. Understanding that it is not you, that it is your system that wins and loses based on market action will keep the negative self talk at bay.
  2. You must have faith in your method. You must study the historical performance of your trading method so you can see how it works on charts. Also it is possible to quantify and back test mechanical trading systems for specific historical  performance in different kinds of markets.
  3. You must have faith in your risk management. You must manage your risk per trade so it brings you to a 0% mathematical probability of ruin. A 1% to 2% of total capital at risk per trade will give almost any system a 0% risk of ruin.
  4. You must have faith that you will win in the long term if you stay on course. Reading the stories of successful traders and how they did it will give you a sense that if they can do it you can to. If trading is something you are passionate about all that separates you from success is time.
  5. You need faith in your stock. It helps in your trading if you trade stocks, commodities, or currencies that you 100% believe in.  Of course you have to follow a defined system and take the signals even if it goes against your opinions but believing in your trading vehicle helps tremendously.

 

Loss Size versus Win Size When Trend Following

  
  Education
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Too many seek to have high win to loss ratios. This is a mistake. The key is to “try” to keep your losses small when trend following. You can always have gaps or limit moves but one of the best ways to mitigate big losses is to trade smaller. In a trend following program, win percentage can be among the lowest of all primary strategy types at 35-40%. Compare this with the options selling that has the highest win percentage at 74.25%. Option sellers have buried more traders than I can count. One of the reasons that some ” unique and small number” of consistent trend followers have survived for decades is that they attempted to focus on loss size and have tried to keep them small. One of the main statements of trend followers is Cut your losses and let your profits run. Easier said than done for most. This is where the psychology comes in and must be enforced.

Trend following success is not based on systems or methods…it is based on thought processes. Even with the correct thought processes…it is never easy…and there are always losing periods…

Past performance is not indicative of future performance

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