rss

European shares are beaten down. German DAX falls -2.5%. France’s CAC -2.9%

Ouch.  European shares take a beating.

The European major indices are closed and the provisional closes are not looking good. The major indices are all beaten down by 2%-3%  declines.
The provisional closes are showing:
  • German DAX, -2.5%
  • France’s CAC, -2.9%
  • UK’s FTSE, -3.2%
  • Spain’s Ibex, -2.7%
  • Italy’s FTSE MIB, -2.8%
In the European debt market, the benchmark 10 year yields are ending the session higher, but off the highest levels of the day.  Below is a snapshot of the current yields, changes and high low yields.
Ouch.  European shares take a beating.
US stocks are also down sharply and trading near lows.
  • S&P index, -1.91%
  • NASDAQ index, -1.75%
  • Dow industrial average, -2.0%

In other markets:

  • spot gold is surging and back above the $1500 level. The price is up $22.34 or 1.51% at $1501.50.
  • WTI crude oil futures is trading down $1.35 on expectations of slower growth. That is down 2.5% at $52.28. The inventory data showed a higher build then expectations today
In the forex, the JPY remains the strongest currency on flight to the relative safety of the JPY. The CAD has taken over as the weakest.  The USDCAD is now trading back above its 200 day moving average at 1.3288.

Most Common Advice is Ineffective

“Plan the trade, and trade the plan!” is perhaps the most common advice given to traders. As far as advice goes, it’s well meaning, but unfortunately falls well short of addressing the problem most traders actually face. 

Looking at the advice, it has two parts. The first part says you need a plan. No argument there. But the second part, about executing the plan, that’s where the problems appear. Why?

The two parts to the advice ‘plan the trade’ and the ‘trade the plan’ require two very different skill sets. Without understanding the different skills required, it’s highly likely that you will continue to regularly veer from your plan.

Here’s the disconnect. Planning the trade depends on your intellect. And most of the time, the development of the plan does not occur in the heat of battle.  It’s relatively easily to let your intellect guide you, to be the primary driver when you’re not in the heat of battle. But in the heat of battle, when we have to decide right now whether to enter or exit, an entirely different situation occurs.

At the time of execution, no longer are we cool, calm, and collected. Now, a whole slew of things enters the picture – and many of these things are subconscious to a degree. Our feelings about our P&L, our feelings about our performance, or concerns about how we appear in the eyes of others, etc.

And no matter how smart you are, how much you believe you are not an ‘emotional person’, modern brain science is telling us emotions, including subconscious emotions, are very much a part of our decision making that leads to actions whether we realize it or not. Viewed this way, you can see why the typical advice to ‘plan the trade and trade the plan’ may be well intentioned, but ineffective.

Papillon teaches trading

I watched the film ‘Papillon’ a few days ago and enjoyed it very much. From memory, the film captures the sense of place, feeling of utter desperation, and cruelty of both the people and environment, found in the book on which it is based. It doesn’t follow the story to the letter – few films do – but this becomes a non-issue considering that many people question whether the author truly experienced all these adventures and hardships, or whether he ‘borrowed’ stories from other prisoners. Whatever the truth may be, I highly recommend reading the book and then watching the film.

In one scene, fellow inmate Louis Dega (played by Dustin Hoffman) is talking to Papillon (a role superbly executed by Steve McQueen) and makes a statement of the ‘somebody once said’ variety, that really struck home:

“A temptation resisted is a true measure of character.”

Important Questions That Every Trader Must Answer

  • What can I win?
  • What can I lose?
  • What do I know?
  • What don’t I know?
  • Why am I making a given decision?
  • Who am I? Am I, for example, the guy who needs to make $100,000 this year or my family leaves me?
  • Where am I in relation to my goals?
  • Where do I need to be to achieve my goals?
  • When will I start? Now or tomorrow or next year. Knowing when affects the next step I take.

One of the great things about the market is that it doesn’t give a damn about you. The market doesn’t care what color you are or if you are short or tall or if you live or die. The market doesn’t care whether you play or leave.

Go to top