Archives of “English people” tag

rss

UK PM Johnson announces lock down effort in response to coronavirus threat

  
  Analysis
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

A pre-recorded speech from UK Prime Minister Johnson being broadcast now

  • coronavirus is the biggest threat UK has faced for decades
  •  “Without huge national effort to halt the growth of this virus, there’ll come a moment when no health service in the world could possibly cope; because there won’t be enough ventilators, enough intensive care beds, enough doctors, enough nurses”
Says people should remain at home, only go out for essentials, medical reasons
  • critical thing is to stop the disease spreading between households
  • people will only be allowed to shop for basic necessities
  • people only allowed one form of exercise a day alone or with members of your household
  • people allowed out for any medical need, or to provide care or to help a vulnerable person
  • people can travel to and from work, but only where this is absolutely necessary and cannot be done from home
  • people should not be meeting friends or family who live outside their home
  • police will have the powers to enforce rules, including through fines and dispersing gatherings

Without a huge national effort, will come a moment when no health service in the world could possibly cope

  • says if too many people become seriously unwell at one time, the health service will be unable to handle it

More:

  • closing immediately all shops selling non-essential goods,​including clothing and electronic stores and other premises including libraries, playgrounds and outdoor gyms, and places of worship
  • will stop all gathering of more than two people, except people you live with
  • we’ll stop all social events​, including weddings, baptisms and other ceremonies, but excluding funerals
  •  restrictions will be kept under constant review
  • we will look again at restrictions in three weeks
  • we will relax restrictions if the evidence shows we are able to
  •  says the way ahead is hard, and it is still true that many lives will sadly be lost

(more…)

Here is UK PM Johnson’s cunning plan to stop Brexit extension beyond October 31

  
  Analysis
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

Earlier post on the UK media report on Prime Minister Boris Johnson plan to sabotage Brexit extension

  • UK press reports on UK PM’s plan to sabotage any Brexit extension
The background to this is Parliament have voted to require the PM to request an extension from the EU beyond October 31 (conditions apply but that’s the gist of it). Johnson plans to send an accompanying letter saying the UK government does not want the extension, that is it wants an exit on October 31.
—
Also, more from the weekend here:
  • EU officials adamant on no further Brexit extension
Earlier post on the UK media report on Prime Minister Boris Johnson plan to sabotage Brexit extension

Assume Nothing; Question Everything; Verify All

  
  Uncategorized
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

“The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”
–Not John Maynard Keynes

I am reading a pretty good book by an industry expert that (like so many others) is a semi-autobiographical mix of business and personal history. The introduction to the book is a broad, throat-clearing exercise, outside of their expertise.

And I begin to notice a few errors.

Little things at first: dates, market levels, valuations. The narrative history about the GFC. It jars. I got a sense a publisher/editor type scanned the book and declared “This needs an intro.” Thus, a section gets written without the same love as the main (more interesting) story. As far as I can tell, the heart of the book (which is outside my area of expertise) is error-free. But these small misstatements are revealing about the industry: Publishers have morphed into mere copy shops, shadows of their former selves, no longer bothering with editing, fact-checking, etc. They have become glorified, spell-checking, xerox machines.

The errors are about things within my area(s) of expertise. It gnaws at me. So much so that when I come to the famous Lord Keynes quote above within the context of this throwaway chapter, it bothers me. This forces me to question whether it too is wrong.

Full disclosure: I have used that quote too many times to count. Mostly verbally, sometimes on social media, occasionally in print. Never once was I self-motivated to see if it was truly written by Keynes.1 My assumption was that it was Keynes, simply because every utterance of his has been poured over and annotated since the day they were made.

We have all used that line because it is a brilliant insight into the madness of markets, a reveal of human psychology, and the ugly reality that you can be right and still lose money. Of course it was by Keynes! Who else is wise enough could to utter such pithy insight about the human condition as manifest in capital markets?

Despite everyone knowing this was John Maynard Keynes, I wanted to confirm these were really his  words. I cannot say why it felt wrong to me, it just did. Read enough media, books, news, etc. and your Spidey-sense will tingle about these things. (more…)

18+1 Trading Rules for Traders

  
  Education
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #
  1. NEVER, EVER, EVER ADD TO A LOSING POSITION: EVER!: Adding to a losing position eventually leads to ruin, remembering Enron, Long Term Capital Management, Nick Leeson and myriad others.
  2. TRADE LIKE A MERCENARY SOLDIER: As traders/investors we are to fight on the winning side of the trade, not on the side of the trade we may believe to be economically correct. We are pragmatists first, foremost and always.
  3. MENTAL CAPITAL TRUMPS REAL CAPITAL: Capital comes in two forms… mental and real… and defending losing positions diminishes one’s finite and measurable real capital and one’s infinite and immeasurable mental capital accordingly and alway.
  4. WE ARE NOT IN THE BUSINESS OF BUYING LOW AND SELLING HIGH: We are in the business of buying high and selling higher, or of selling low and buying lower. Strength begets strength; weakness more weakness.
  5. IN BULL MARKETS ONE MUST TRY ALWAYS TO BE LONG OR NEUTRAL: The corollary, obviously, is that in bear markets one must try always to be short or neutral. There are exceptions, but they are very, very rare.
  6. “MARKETS CAN REMAIN ILLOGICAL FAR LONGER THAN YOU OR I CAN REMAIN SOLVENT:” So said Lord Keynes many years ago and he was… and is… right, for illogic does often reign, despite what the academics would have us believe.
  7. BUY THAT WHICH SHOWS THE GREATEST STRENGTH; SELL THAT WHICH SHOWS THE GREATEST WEAKNESS: Metaphorically, the wettest paper sacks break most easily and the strongest winds carry ships the farthest,fastest.
  8. THINK LIKE A FUNDAMENTALIST; TRADE LIKE A TECHNICIAN:Be bullish… or bearish… only when the technicals and the fundamentals, as you understand them, run in tandem.
  9. TRADING RUNS IN CYCLES; SOME GOOD, MOST BAD: In the “Good Times” even one’s errors are profitable; in the inevitable “Bad Times” even the most well researched trade shall goes awry. This is the nature of trading; accept it and move on. (more…)
Go to top