Archives of “Energy Information Administration” tag

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EIA lowers US 2020 crude production estimate to 13.18 mbpd from 13.29 mbpd prior

  
Analysis, Crude
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EIA lowers 2020 supply outlook after OPEC

  • Sees supply for 2020 at 102.29 mbpd vs 102.58 mbpd prior
  • Demand seen at 102.14 mbpd vs 102.27 mbpd prior
  • EIA forecasts OPEC crude oil production will average 29.3 million b/d in 2020, down by 0.5 million b/d from 2019
  • Latest report
The swing producer in the world is now shale. In this report, the EIA said it expects total US crude oil and petroleum net exports to average 570,000 bpd in 2020 but that’s down from 750,000 bpd in last month’s estimate.
They continue to see a rise of 0.9 mbpd in US production this year, that’s slower than the 1.3 mbpd rise this year but still above private forecasts, which have fallen to 0.6 mbpd (and lower).

US weekly EIA energy inventories +9281K vs +3000K expected

  
Analysis, Crude
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Weekly US oil inventory data from the EIA:

  • Prior was +2927K
  • Gasoline -2562K vs -1500K exp
  • Distillates -3823K vs -2500K exp
  • Cushing +1276K
  • Refinery utilization -2.6%
The headlines aren’t as bad as they look because the API numbers from late yesterday were so bearish. The drop in refinery runs and draws in products takes the sting out of the report:
  • Crude +10500K
  • Cushing +1600K
  • Gasoline -934K
  • Distillates -2900K

EIA cuts world oil demand growth by 100K BPD

  
Analysis, Crude
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Cuts 2019 will demand growth by 50 K

The EIA is out with world /US oil demand and production forecasts
  • cuts forecast for 2020 world oil demand growth by 100 K BPD,.
  • Sees 1.3 million BPD increase in 2020
  • cuts forecast for 2019 world oil demand growth by 50 K BPD.
  • Sees 0.84 million BPD year on year increase
  • projects US crude output to rise 1.27 million BPD to 12.26M BPD in 2019 (versus 1.25M BPD increasing forecast last month)
  • sees US crude output to rise 910K BPD to 13.17M BPD in 2020 (vs rise to13.23M BPD forecast last month)
  • US petroleum and other liquid fuel demands to rise 40K BPD to 20.54M BPD in 2019 (vs 140K BPD increase forecast last month)
  • US petroleum and other liquid fuels demand to rise 220K BPD to 20.76 M BPD in 2020 (versus increase to 20.85M BPD forecast last month).
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