Archives of “Economy of Russia” tag

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Russia raises its inflation, GDP, capex forecasts

  
Analysis, Economy
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Russian economy ministry issues revised forecasts

 

  • 2021 GDP growth forecast up to 3.8% from 2.9%
  • lifts Urals oil price forecast to $65.9/bbl from $60.3/bbl
  • 2021 inflation forecast to 5% from 4.3%
  • 2021 capital investment growth forecast to 4.5% from 3.3%
  • 2021 average dollar/rouble rate to 72.8 from 73.3 seen in April

 

The ministry comments on the higher forecasts:

  • We see the economy is recovering faster than we had expected
  • Our experts say the economic recovery potential is not exhausted yet
On the currency:
  • We all realise that the rouble price should be different at oil prices of $75 per barrel
  • current rouble weakness blamed on sanction risks, OPEC+ uncertainty around global oil output.
Russia’s inflation target is 4%, the latest reading has it at 6.5%. Russia’s central bank is expected to raise its key rate again from 5.5% on July 23.
USD/RUB daily chart:
USD/RUB daily chart

An Oil ICYMI – Russia, oil majors discuss extending the crude output cut further

  
Analysis, Politics
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Overnight oil news with a report that Russia’s Energy Minister Alexander Novak met with domestic major oil companies on Tuesday

  • Discussions centred on implementing oil production curbs
  • possible extension of the current level of cuts beyond June
Reuters reported the info citing unnamed sources, said no final decision was reached.
Kommersant daily, citing three sources in oil industry, said Russia may keep the current level of cuts until September
I posted a couple of days ago on measures in Russia to try to ease the impact of cuts:
  • Russian President Putin has ordered bail out measures for Russia’s oil industry
Russian energy head honcho Novak:
Russia Energy Minister Alexander Novak
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