Archives of “Economic forecasting” tag

rss

OECD trims 2020 global growth forecast to 2.9% from 3.0% in September

  
Analysis, Economy
#  #  #  #  #  #

OECD with an updated forecast on the global economic outlook

Global
  • 2019 global GDP growth at 2.9% (unchanged)
  • 2020 global GDP growth at 2.9% (previously 3.0%)
  • 2019 US GDP growth at 2.3% (previously 2.4%)
  • 2020 US GDP growth at 2.0% (unchanged)
  • 2019 China GDP growth at 6.2% (previously 6.1%)
  • 2020 China GDP growth at 5.7% (unchanged)
  • 2019 Eurozone GDP growth at 1.2% (previously 1.1%)
  • 2020 Eurozone GDP growth at 1.1% (previously 1.0%)
  • 2019 UK GDP growth at 1.2% (previously 1.0%)
  • 2020 UK GDP growth at 1.0% (previously 0.9%)
  • 2019 Japan GDP growth at 1.0% (unchanged)
  • 2020 Japan GDP growth at 0.6% (unchanged)
The September forecasts can be found here. If anything, it shows that the dark clouds surrounding the global economy are starting to settle for a bit – not getting significantly worse at the very least.
However, any significant rebound is still far away and needs more convincing so let’s see how sentiment changes if we do or do not get a “Phase One” trade deal.

IMF lowers global growth forecast to 3.2% from 3.3%

  
Analysis, Economy
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

The latest forecasts from the IMF

The latest forecasts from the IMF
The previous round of forecasts were in April:
  • 2020 global growth to 3.5% from 3.6%
  • US to 2.6% vs 2.3% prior
  • 2020 US growth 1.9% vs 1.9% prior
  • Eurozone 1.3% vs 1.3% prior
  • 2020 Eurozone raised to 1.6%
  • China 6.2% vs 6.3% prior
  • 2020 China 6.0% vs 6.1% prior
  • Canada 1.5% vs 1.5% prior
  • Germany 0.7% vs 0.8% prior
  • 2020 Germany to 1.7% vs 1.4% prior
  • Italy +0.8% vs +0.1% prior
  • Advanced economies 1.7% vs 1.8% prior
  • Emerging markets 4.7% vs 4.4% prior
  • 2020 emerging markets 4.7% vs 5.0% prior
  • World trade volume lowered to 2.5% vs 3.4% prior
  • Full report
In April, the IMF lowered its forecasts. Since October, this is the fourth downgrade in global growth and the statement said downside risks have intensified going forward, noting trade.
“The projected growth pickup in 2020 is precarious, presuming stabilization in currently stressed emerging market and developing economies and progress toward resolving trade policy differences,” the report says.
They noted that fixed investment is particularly soft, even in places where growth has surprised to the upside. They note high inventories in the UK and US.
Go to top