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US weekly oil inventories -1632K vs -2850K expected

  
Analysis, Crude
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Weekly US petroleum inventory data

  • Prior was -4512K
  • Gasoline -3322K vs -1000K expected
  • Distillates +152K vs -1200K expected
  • Refinery utilization -0.1% vs +0.3% expected
  • Production unchanged at 10.7 mbpd
API data late yesterday:
  • Crude -4264K
  • Gasoline +4991K
  • Distillates -964K
Crude rose about 20 cents on the headlines to $42.79 per barrel. The headline isn’t as bullish as anticipated but the gasoline drawdown was larger.
US weekly oil inventories
The OPEC JMMC meeting is also taking place right now with Russia’s Novak stressing the need for full compliance.

The weekly oil inventory data is due out at the bottom of the hour

  
  Analysis
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Private data last night showed a bigger than expected drawdown of crude inventories

The Department of Energy will release their weekly inventory data.

The private API numbers from last night showed:
  • crude oil -8.587M vs -3.35M est.
  • gasoline -1.748M vs -1.3M estimate
  • distillates +3.824M vs +100K est
  • Cushing +1.63M
The price of September WTI crude oil futures are up $1.68 or 4.03% at $43.39. The price shot through the 50% retracement of the 2020 move lower at $41.71.  The contracts 200 day moving average is at $43.92. The high price today has reached $43.52

US weekly oil inventories -10611K vs +450K expected

  
Analysis, Crude
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Weekly US oil inventory data

  • Prior oil was +4892K
  • Gasoline +654K vs -2000K expected
  • Distillates +503K vs +1000K exp
  • Refinery utilization +1.6% vs +0.5% exp
  • Production 11.1 mbpd vs 11.1 prior
API data from late yesterday:
  • Crude -6829K
  • Cushing +1144K
  • Gasoline +1083K
  • Distillates +187K
Oil prices rose about 15 cents on the headlines. That’s the largest draw of the year and it’s entirely due to a 10462K draw at PADD 3, which is on the gulf coast.
In terms of oil, one thing to watch is a potential tropical cycle in the mid-atlantic. It’s on a track that could hit the gulf and Florida.
Florida

Ten word investment philosophies

  
  Education
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Every writer knows that trying to express an idea in the fewest number of words is one of the hardest tasks.  That is, in part, why there are editors.  There is a legend that Ernest Hemingwaywon a bet by writing a six word short story:

For sale. Baby shoes. Never worn.

The folks at Snopes are skeptical of this legend, but the fact remains that the six word story is a compelling one, Hemingway or not.

Jason Zweig writing at Total Return asked a number of investment professionals to do something similar when it comes to expressing their investment philosophy in ten words or less.  One might think that ten words would be too much of a constraint, but the participants did compelling work.  Zweig wrote this:

Anything is possible, and the unexpected is inevitable. Proceed accordingly.

We also liked Elroy Dimson’s contribution as well:

Risk means more things can happen than will happen. (more…)

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