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IMF: Dollar Carry-Trade Creating Bubbles Around The World

  
Analysis, Economy, Education, Global Indices
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imf-global data

bubble(1)

Read a PDF of the IMF’s recent report here.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) highlighted the fact that low interest rates in the U.S., plus an apparent “one-way” bet against the dollar has created a global dollar carry-trade that is driving capital flows into emerging markets.

If not handled properly, this will lead to emerging market asset bubbles, which arguably have already begun to inflate.

We’ve highlighted before how places like Hong Kong are seeing property prices go through the roof due to low U.S. interest rates. (more…)

ALERT :RBI Tax to dry FII Tap ?

  
Analysis, Economy, Education
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taxForeign investors funneled more than $15 billion to Indian equities in 2009, sending stocks up more than 75% and strengthening the rupee . With expected positive growth rates for the year and higher interest rates differentials that favor emerging markets, investors are looking to India as a good place to stash their wealth.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has already taken the necessary precautions to stave off a potential asset bubble forming in India’s stock and real estate markets. India’s officials are welcoming the fund inflows with open arms, but Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee says monetary tools will be implemented if inflows become disruptive to the economy.

RBI could stem inflows by:

We are expecting very soon by Next month or First week Jan’10

  • Imposing taxes on inflows; this is considered to be the most likely tactic the government would take, especially when it comes to inflows that could lead to a housing bubble
  • Auctioning quotas for foreign credit to increase the cost of raising funds
  • Using market intervention bonds and raising cash reserve ratios
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