Archives of “decisions” tag

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Trading Thoughts

  
  Education
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The speculator’s chief enemies are always boring from within. It is inseparable from human nature to hope and to fear. In speculation when the market goes against you, you hope that every day will be the last day — and you lose more than you should had you not listened to hope — to the same ally that is so potent a success-bringer to empire builders and pioneers, big and little. And when the market goes your way you become fearful that the next day will take away your profit, and you get out — to soon. Fear keeps you from making as much money as you ought to. The successful trader has to fight these two deep-seated instincts. He has to reverse what you might call his natural impulses. Instead of hoping he must fear; instead of fearing he must hope. He must fear that his loss may develop into a much bigger loss, and hope that his profit may become a big profit.

When you’re in a losing streak, your ability to properly assimilate and analyze information starts to become distorted because of the impairment of the confidence factor, which is a by-product of a losing streak. You have to work very hard to restore that confidence, and cutting back trading size helps achieve that goal.

When I get hurt in the market, I get the hell out. It doesn’t matter at all where the market is trading. I just get out, because I believe that once you’re hurt in the market, your decisions are going to be far less objective than they are when you’re doing well. If you stick around when the market is severely against you, sooner or later they are going to carry you out.

The key to trading success is emotional discipline. If intelligence were the key, there would be a lot more people making money trading… I know this will sound like a cliche, but the single most important reason that people lose money in the financial markets is that they don’t cut their losses short.”

Good Habits

  
  Education
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When a new trader comes to me for advice, quite often they have suffered initial losses from their trading activities (sometimes heavy ones) and have not really had a focussed overall trading plan set out, or if they have, they’ve not followed it.

Even if you start trading with limited capital, it is important that you start ingraining good habits as early as you can. Principal amongst these is ensuring that you do not trade too large positions relative to your overall equity. 

Depending on your chosen method of trading, transaction costs can also eat into a small account, and the trading vehicle you choose to use should be carefully considered.

However, it is a well known maxim that the vast majority of new traders blow up their accounts within 6 months. This is not necessarily as a result of their method of choosing their entries and exits (although that undoubtedly helps) but more as a result of risking way too much on each trade, or in extreme cases having a complete disregard for risk.

Trading is a marathon not a sprint, and to stay in the game you need to exhibit strong risk control right from the off. The sooner you can ingrain that in your method and your mind, the better. Even the best did not necessarily get a grip on risk control early in their careers – in Market Wizards Paul Tudor Jones talks about losing 70% of his equity on a single trade relatively early in his career. It was only after that experience did he go away and implement rigorous risk control.

From having risk under control, unemotional trading decisions can be taken, improving your mindset and allowing you to follow your system with no risk of self-sabotage. Allied to a proven method for selecting entry and exit points, you will be well on the journey to trading success.

Trading Wisdom

  
  Education
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Markets are highly random and are very, very close to being efficient.

If you are a new trader, trading is probably harder than you think it can be. If you’ve been trading a while, you know this. Financial markets are one of the most competitive environments in the modern world. New information is quickly processed and incorporated into prices. This means that you cannot outsmart the market consistently. You cannot invest based on what you think makes sense or should happen because you are up against investors with superior access to information, knowledge, experience, capital and other resources. Most of the time, markets move in a more or less random fashion; you can’t make money if market movements are random. (“Efficient”, in this context, is an academic term that basically means that all available information is reflected in prices.)

It is impossible to make money trading without an edge.

There are many ways to create an edge in the markets, but one this is true—it is very, very hard to do so. Most things that people say work in the market do not actually work. Treat claims of success and performance with healthy skepticism. I can tell you, based on my experience of nearly twenty years as a trader, most people who say they are making substantial profits are not. This is a very hard business.

Every edge we have is driven by an imbalance of buying and selling pressure.

The world divides into two large groups of traders and investors: fundamental traders who base decisions off of financial analysis, understanding of the industry and a company’s competitive position, growth rates, assessment of management, etc. Technical traders base decisions off of patterns in prices, volume or related data. From a technical perspective, every edge we have is generated by a disagreement between buyers and sellers. When they are in balance (equilibrium), market movements are random.

Three Essential Components Of Trading

  
  Education
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number-3Every winner needs three essential components of trading: a sound individual psychology, a logical trading system and a good money management.

These essentials are three legs of a stool – remove one and the stool will fall together with the person who sits on it.

Losers try to build a stool with only one leg, or two at the most. They usually focus exclusively on trading systems.

Your trade must be based on clearly defined rules.
You have to analyze your feelings as you trade, to make sure that your decisions are intellectually sound.
You have to structure your money management so that no string of losses can kick you out of the game.

3 Trading Principles

  
  Education
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Sharpen Your Edge

“Gaining a competitive advantage is like having a two-edged sword, and you need to keep both of them sharp.  On edge is internal-knowing what unique skills you bring to the table.  The other is external and comes from gathering knowledge that makes it more likely you’ll succeed” 

Keep Your Cool

“Deciding when to cut your losses is one of the toughest decisions for anyone to make, but traders at the top of their game know that they always have to make the decisions they need to make, which may or may not be the ones they wantto make” 

 Get Comfortable With Being Uncomfortable

“In the trading world, you will either make money or lose money on any given trade. All that matters in the end is making more money when you’re right than you lose when you’re wrong.  Knowing this, traders have learned to accept failure as part of the game, but they also use the information they acquire from their mistakes as a learning tool.  Frequently, what they learn from losing money is more valuable than what they learn when they make money” 

10 Signs You Might still be a New Trader

  
  Education
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  1. New Traders do not understand what all the fuss is about risk management and trader psychology they do not need all that they are special.

  2. New Traders believe there is some magic trading method that always wins, they search for the Holy Grail of trading.
  3. New Traders do not understand that the very best traders have strings of losses , losing months, and sometimes even losing years. They think rich traders always win.
  4. New Traders want to know what is going up or down, they focus on tips instead of the mechanics of trading.
  5. New Traders hand out advice freely to others, good traders realize that decisions are based on individual methods and do not give out tips.
  6. New Traders are looking for that one big winning trade to go all in on, good traders are trading good systems that they risk 1% per trade on.
  7. New Traders confuse bull markets for skill.
  8. New Traders confuse luck for skill.
  9. New Traders want advice, good traders want robust systems.
  10. New Traders run from method to method and from mentor to mentor after every losing streak, good traders know exactly who they are and what methods they trade.

 

Trading Wisdom

  
  Education
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Often I think we overcomplicate trading.  All this talk of risk management, money management, entries, exits etc ad nauseum can leave us not being able to see the wood for the trees.

It’s obvious that you need to cut your losses.  If you let them run or get out of control your aren’t going to be in the business for long. 

But there is another very good and often forgotten reason why you should not let your losses run that William O’Neill highlights:

O’Neill “letting your losses run is the most serious mistake made by almost all investors” simply because “if you don’t sell to cut your losses when you get into trouble, you can easily lose the confidence you’ll need to make buy and sell decisions in the future.”

But if you learn to do this then you stand some chance of doing this:

“Take your losses quickly and your profits slowly” because “your objective is not just to be right but to make big money when you are right.”

The first quote is another great one to heed.  If we do and combine it with the second well…… we might just be able to make the big money once in a while.

Your Comfort Zone

  
  Education
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High achievers (in life and in the market) frequently step outside their comfort zone. That’s the way they learn and make progress. At the same time, they also expect to fail (more often than not), but do not see failure or mistakes they make as problems, but as educational experiences.

The natural instinct of all of us is to seek safety and shelter, unfortunately at the exact same time when we should be aggressive and risk tolerant. Those who do well in the market understand this natural human tendency and they consistently work against it when others are doing the exact opposite.

The key for today is to first understand what your comfort zone is and then take a step outside of it. Remember, the market doesn’t reward comfort and decisions that “feel” good to make. That’s the law of nature and it is true of this market like any other.

You don't need to follow trading rules

  
  Education
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We’ve all heard the proselytizers of trade planning bemoan lesser traders that they need to follow their trade rules. Yet, emotional traders still dominate the retail trading landscape. After hearing about how bad they are for acting as they do, they flagellate themselves for allowing emotion to enter into their trading decisions and re-dedicate themselves to discipline trading without emotions. But who are we to judge why and how someone else trades with their money?

Of all the different types of trading styles, I find the emotional style of trading the most entertaining. It is more human and natural than a game of probability. There is personal stuff at stake. Anyone who preaches to you that you need to stop it and get a plan is really preaching to themselves. They are healing a wound, or trying to convince themselves that they no longer participate in the egregious activity of trading without one. They are essentially scared of their emotions.

You cannot detach yourself from your emotions. If you want to trade based on emotions, I support your decision. After all, it’s your money and it’s not my place to tell you what to do with it.

Rules. We think of them as ‘made to be broken’ for a good reason. Rules are limiting and suffocating. Yes, we need some basic ones in our lives, but as soon as a method of trading is defined as a rule, the inner workings of the imagination begins the task of find ways around it. It’s only natural. Our total human experience cannot be contained with stupid rules. And who is making these rules anyway? Why are they valid? We all know that rules are put in place because we basically don’t trust someone (maybe ourselves) to do the right thing when the time comes. (more…)

Trading Quotes

  
  Education
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The tape tells the truth, but often there is a lie buried in the human interpretation
Jesse Livermore
 Charts not only tell what was, they tell what is; and a trend from was to is (projected linearly into the will be) contains better percentages than clumsy guessing
R. A. Levy
The biggest risk in trading is missing major opportunities, most of enormous gains on my accounts came from 5% of trades.
Richard Dennis
 Your human nature prepares you to give up your independence under stress. when you put on a trade, you feel the desire to imitate others and overlook objective trading signals. This is why you need to develop and follow trading systems and money management rules. They represent your rational individual decisions, made before you enter a trade and become a crowd member.
A. Elder
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