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Highlights of the FOMC decision on December 11, 2019:

  • At the prior decision on October 30, the Fed cut rates 25 bps
  • The market has priced in virtually no chance of rate move through February
  • IOER 1.55% vs 1.55% prior
  • Fed drops language about ‘uncertainties about this outlook remain’
  • Vote was unanimous
  • “The Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook, including global developments and muted inflation pressures, as it assesses the appropriate path of the target range for the federal funds rate”
  • No changes in the economic outlook paragraph
  • Says “the current stance of monetary policy is appropriate”
  • Leaves forecasts for GDP and inflation unchanged, lowers unemployment
  • Median forecast is for one rate hike in 2021 and one in 2022

Dropping the language about uncertainties is moderately hawkish. However the market is basically unmoved in the aftermath. The Fed is clearly signaling that it’s on the sidelines here.

What’s driving the USD right now?

What’s driving the USD right now?

What's driving the USD right now?

The FOMC decided to pause their recent easing cycle, but they also said that rate hikes were not going to be considered for some time, signalling a broadly more dovish bias to US monetary policy.The expectations for the rest of 2019 is that the Fed will remain on hold and that the holding position for the medium term will be for rates to remain as they are.

USD being driven by it’s safe haven status

The main driver then, at the moment, is coming from the USD’s status as a safe haven currency. The flip flopping of the US-China trade dispute, which is subject to regular and rapid change, has been moving the USD around on safe haven moves:

  • Positive developments in the US/China trade tariffs weighs on the USD
  • Negative developments in the US/China trade tariffs supports the USD

Fed lowers interest rates by 25 basis points, as expected

Highlights of the FOMC statement on September 18, 2019:

  • Fed funds target rate lowered to 1.75%-2.00%
  • Prior Fed funds rate was 2.00%-2.25%
  • IOER lowered to 1.80% vs 1.85% expected
  • IOER spread widened to 20 bps
  • Statement repeats that economic activity is rising at a moderate rate
  • Repeats the labor market remains strong
  • Repeats will act as appropriate to sustain expansion
  • Repeats inflation running below 2%
  • Bullard voted to lower rates more aggressively, George and Rosengren voted for no cuts
  • George and Rosengren dissented previously for no cuts
  • Says household spending been rising at a strong pace vs ‘has picked up from earlier in the year’ prior
  • Adds that exports have weakened
  • Business fixed investment ‘has weakened’ vs ‘has been soft’

There isn’t much of any kind of change in the statement. The market is focusing on the dot plot, which doesn’t show another cut this year and only an 9-8  preference for no cut at all next year.

Full text of the July 31, 2019 FOMC statement

The full text of the July 31 statement from the FOMC

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement
Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in
June indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic
activity has been rising at a moderate rate. Job gains have been solid,
on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained
low. Although growth of household spending has picked up from earlier in
the year, growth of business fixed investment has been soft. On a
12-month basis, overall inflation and inflation for items other than
food and energy are running below 2 percent. Market-based measures of
inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term
inflation expectations are little changed.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster
maximum employment and price stability. In light of the implications of
global developments for the economic outlook as well as muted inflation
pressures, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the
federal funds rate to 2 to 2-1/4 percent. This action supports the
Committee’s view that sustained expansion of economic activity, strong
labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee’s symmetric 2
percent objective are the most likely outcomes, but uncertainties about
this outlook remain. As the Committee contemplates the future path of
the target range for the federal funds rate, it will continue to monitor
the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and
will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor
market and inflation near its symmetric 2 percent objective.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the
target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess
realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum
employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective.
This assessment will take into account a wide range of information,
including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation
pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and
international developments.

The Committee will conclude the reduction of its aggregate securities
holdings in the System Open Market Account in August, two months
earlier than previously indicated.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair;
John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; James
Bullard; Richard H. Clarida; Charles L. Evans; and Randal K. Quarles.
Voting against the action were Esther L. George and Eric S. Rosengren,
who preferred at this meeting to maintain the target range for the
federal funds rate at 2-1/4 to 2-1/2 percent.

Dovish testimony from Powell, 3 rate cuts on the way, starting with 25bps in July

That’s the expectation from Bank of America / Merrill Lynch for the FOMC after Fed Chair Powell’s testimony on Wednesday

Powell “delivered a dovish testimony
  • hinting strongly at an upcoming cut
BoA ML:
  • expect a 25bp cut in July (31st)
  • and cuts thereafter at each of the following two meetings (September17-18 and October 29-30)
  • cumulative 75bp of easing
More from the note:
  • The Fed seems to be willing to dismiss the better data from the US and instead is focusing on the weaker global data.
  •  Indeed, when Powell was asked if the strong jobs report changed his views on cuts, he stated “no”. 
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