Archives of “Climate change skepticism and denial” tag

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Trump says he plans a call with Putin today to discuss oil

  
  Analysis
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Trump in Fox News interview

  • Trump says he will the Russian President Putin on Monday to discuss oil and other matters
  • Russia and Saudi Arabia “both went crazy” on oil issue
The US lambasted OPEC and Saudi Arabia for generations for keeping oil prices artificially high and operating a cartel. Now that OPEC has blown up, the same pearl clutchers don’t want anything to do with the free market. The reality is that the US has flooded the world with uneconomic oil for years because of Federal Reserve largess.
In any case, the oil market likes what the President is saying. Russia will certainly listen if the US offers to reduce sanctions. WTI has pared its decline and is back to $20.60 from $20.10 minutes ago.

US President Trump says he has taken the coronavirus COVID-19 test

  
  Analysis
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Fox report Trump was tested, results are expected within 48 hours

  • “I decided I should based on the press conference yesterday people were asking that I take the test.”
Trump’s job has brought him into close contact with people confirmed as having the virus so this test is a wise step.
What we have seen so far from the progression of the infection around the globe is older people seem particularly vulnerable to the more severe impacts of the virus, along with those people with existing respiratory issues.
Fox report Trump was tested, results are expected within 48 hours

Trump signs $7.88 emergency coronavirus bill

  
  Analysis
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Trump puts pen to paper

The bill passed through Congress yesterday.
Trump puts pen to paper
Comments from Trump at the signing ceremony:
  • Says he doesn’t know if stimulus is needed (fiscal stimulus presumably)
  • Says Fed should cut rates
  • On coronavirus “we’re taking care of it”
According to Eamonn Javers of CNBC, President Trump just explained to the pool why he cancelled his CDC trip: “We may go – they thought there was a problem with CDC with somebody who had the virus,” he said, adding that the person in question has been tested and it is a negative test, “I may be going,” he added.
More from Javers: Asked by pool reporters if Congress needs to take more action to diminish risk of recession President Trump says: “all we can do is do what we do” “People were shocked” by jobs numbers, he said. He said he didn’t know if a stimulus was needed, per pool.

US President Trump says the coronavirus will probably spread in the US

  
  Analysis
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President of the United States Trump press conference

  • Says virus will probably spread in the US
There is no probably about it. I am surprised he is not informed on this.
More:
  • May need to restrict travel from Italy, South Korea but now is not the right time
S&P500 futures lower again, getting sold heavily on Globex

Pres. Trump proposes 2 state solution for Israel and Palestinians

  
Analysis, Politics
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Mideast peace plan from Pres. Trump

  • Pres. Trump proposes 2 state solution for Israel and Palestinians with Palestinian capital in east Jerusalem
  • Israel has agreed to negotiate on the basis of a detailed proposed the map
  • Israel agreement on statehood for Palestinians is dependent on security arrangement to protect Israelis
  • Israel respect historic role of Al-Aqsa mosque and Jordan’s role with regard to holy sites with the aim of allowing Muslims to visit mosque
  • Palestinian state hold is dependent on Palestinians respecting human rights, freedom of the press, and having a transparent and credible judiciary
  • Israelis West Bank settlements would be recognized by the United States
  • in exchange for Israel’s agreeing to the proposed map, the US will recognize the map
  • Israeli would agree to 4 year freeze on settlement activity while Palestinian statehood negotiated
  • we bought 4 more years for Palestinians to get their act together and negotiate state
  • question for Palestinians. The question is is will they come to the table and negotiate
  • if Palestinians agree to negotiate there are some areas that can be compromised in the future
  • proposed Palestinian state would be connected with roads, bridges and tunnels with connectivity between Gaza and West Bank
  • Trump plan calls for Palestinian refugees to be able to return to a future state of Palestine and creates generous compensation fund.
Israel and Palestinian talks broke down in 2014.  US officials are bracing for initial Palestinian skepticism, but hope that over time they will agree to negotiate.
US plan represent the most dramatic and detailed attempt to break the historic deadlock. The Palestinians are skeptical as they say the US administration is biased toward Israel.

Details of phase one deal released as Trump and Lui He sign documents

  
  Analysis
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Trump and Lui He sign deal

Trump and Lui He sign deal
  • Agreement prohibits misappropriation of trade secrets through electronic surveillance
  • Require forfeiture of machinery used to produce counterfeit goods
  • Agreement effective 30 days after signing
  • Deal calls for $200 billion in added Chinese purchases of US goods above 2017 levels
  • Lighthizer says it is not administrations intention to wait until after November elections for phase two deal
  • Lighthizer says only way for further tariff reductions is a phase two deal
  • China to import no less than $12.5B above 2017 baseline for agricultural goods in 2020 and +$19.5B in 2021
  • Market conditions, particularly in the case of agricultural goods ,may dictate the timing of purchases within any given year
More purchase details:
  • China to buy $12.8B more in services this year, $25.1B in second year
  • To buy $18.5B more in energy this year, $33.9B in second year
  • To buy $12.5B more in manufactured goods this year, $44.8B in second year
  • The outline of this was leaked yesterday
Those are some big numbers. I would love to see more details on what China plans to buy, especially in something less-fungible like manufacturing.

Recap: Trump impeachment story, where are we now?

  
  Analysis
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The Lower House has voted in favour to impeach US president Trump on two accounts earlier today

Trump

 

He is certainly not having a good day but it isn’t the end of the world for Trump, not even close in fact. The House of Representatives (Lower House) may have voted to impeach him on the two accounts above but it will not happen unless Senate also votes similarly.
And to that note, it is extremely unlikely to happen especially since the Republicans still hold a majority there and 2/3 votes are needed for the impeachment charges to succeed.
If you’re wondering why markets aren’t reacting to the news, that is the main reason why. Greg also gave a bit of an overview of the situation yesterday here.
The Democrats themselves know how this can all play out in the new year, which is leading to the suggestion that they may just prolong the process of passing things over to Congress – in hopes that the impeachment news will brew and bubble up among the public.
That said, it shouldn’t make much difference to markets unless this spills over to damage Trump’s election chances – which is also seen as unlikely at this stage.
So in short, Trump is one step closer to actually being impeached but it is almost certainly still not going to happen. As you were..

Global Times editor warns on China retaliation if US imposes December tariffs

  
  Analysis
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The Chinese media is keeping up with its warning messages to Trump

The tweet from Hu Xijin reads:

“Impose tariffs, China will surely retaliate, such a trade war escalation scenario has been played several times. Washington won’t be so naïve to still believe it can crush China, will it? A trade war that doesn’t result in a trade deal will only be completely denied by history.”

It’s something similar to the message sent out yesterday here. The past two days have seen the Global Times come up with constant “reminders” to the US that if they do implement tariffs at the end of this week, it could lead to more bad blood between the two countries.

North Korea warns that Kim’s thoughts on Trump can change

  
Analysis, Politics
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North Korea warns Trump on year-end deadline

North Korea US

In case you missed the news from earlier today, North Korea has set a year-end deadline for the US to change its policies or Kim Jong Un may “embark on a new path” as denuclearisation talks between the two countries appear to have broken down.

If you’ve been following our headlines over the past few months, it is clear that the two countries aren’t getting along well with how frequent North Korea has been conducting missile launches and tests during the period.
As things stand, they want the US to lift more sanctions before committing to any more “denuclearisation” projects but the US wants it to be the other way around. Hence, we have reached a bit of an impasse at the moment.
If anything else, keep an eye on this issue here as it could present a wild card risk for markets in 2020 – alongside the host of other issues.
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