Archives of “Chronology of world oil market events” tag

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Goldman Sachs are unimpressed by the oil output cut deal – “insufficient”

  
  Analysis
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GS say the OPEC+ G20 production cut is too little too late, and the bank sees downside risk to its $20/barrel price forecast

  • “Today’s agreement leaves the voluntary cuts as still too little and too late to avoid breaching storage capacity, ensuring that low oil prices force all producers to contribute to the market rebalancing”
  • no voluntary cuts could be large enough to offset the 19m b/d average April-May demand loss due to the coronavirus
  • OPEC+ voluntary cut is an only actual 4.3m b/d reduction in production from 1Q 2020 levels
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Oil traded higher initially upon market reopen for the week, gave it all back and turned negative and is now not much changed from late last week levels.

OPEC cuts 2020 global oil demand growth forecast by 920K bpd

  
Analysis, Crude
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The latest from OPEC

In other times that would be a shocking drop but now it sounds behind the curve. Obviously demand is going to fall much more in a global pandemic.
  • Saudi Arabia pumped 9.68 mbpd in Feb
  • Cuts non-OEPC supply estimate by 490K bpd to 1.76 mbpd
WTI crude oil is down $1.18 to $33.17 today and is just off session lows. There’s been no reaction to this news.

FT: Saudi Arabia is pushing to make a substantial cut in oil production when Opec meet

  
Analysis, Crude
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OPEC meet 5 and 6 March in Vienna, the Financial Times says Saudi Arabia  is asking producers including Russia for a production cut of an additional 1m barrels a day

FT citing five people familiar with the talks,
Under the proposal, Saudi Arabia would account for the bulk of the new 1m b/d cut
  •  Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Russia would split the rest
  • Deal not yet been agreed
  • Moscow still hesitant
This proposal is up from the 600k bpd proposal previously floated.
OPEC meet 5 and 6 March in Vienna, the Financial Times says Saudi Arabia  is asking producers including Russia for a production cut of an additional 1m barrels a day

OPEC+ close to dropping the idea of an emergency meeting – report

  
Analysis, Crude
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So much for that hope

OPEC+ is close to dropping the idea of an emergency meeting this month and will stick with March meeting dates, according to delegates cited by Bloomberg. They say the Saudis may still push for hte Feb meeting.
Oil has climbed this week for the first time since Jan 3…at least for now. The March contract just expired.
So much for that hope

OPEC+ said to reach agreement to reduce output target by 500k bpd

  
Analysis, Crude
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OPEC+ ministers are said to have agreed to the deal

The closed session meeting is still taking place but as ever the case, the decision is already being leaked out. In any case, the 500k bpd additional cut here is what has been anticipated over the past two days.

But all this does is just bring the target level closer to actual production levels seen throughout the whole of this year. Oil stays slightly pressured with Brent near lows just above $63 and WTI likewise just above $58.

Weekend oil news – Russia & Saudi Arabia agree to extend OPEC+ oil output curbs

  
Analysis, Crude
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Russian President Vladimir Putin, over the weekend, said Russia has agreed with Saudi Arabia to extend the deal with OPEC on reducing oil output.

  • For 6 to 9 months
  • “We will support the extension, both Russia and Saudi Arabia. As far as the length of the extension is concerned, we have yet to decide whether it will be six or nine months. Maybe it will be nine months,”
Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih also said deal would likely be extended.
The output agreement is expected to be extended in its current form and with the same volumes.
OPEC plus (OPEC plus key oil producing allies) begin their meeting today, Monday 1 July
Russian President Vladimir Putin, over the weekend, said Russia has agreed with Saudi Arabia to extend the deal with OPEC on reducing oil output.

IEA cuts 2014 global oil demand forecast by 60k to 1.29mbpd

  
  Education
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  • Cuts 2014 forecast for non OPEC oil supply growth by 250k to 1.5mbpd
  • Lower Russian projections drive estimates lower
  • OPEC crude supply fell in March by 890k to 29.62mbpd on Iraq, Libya & Saudi
  • Says market balances indicate OPEC will need to raise output in second half of year
  • OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 6.5m in Feb to 2.567tn barrels

Brent crude has been looking slightly cheaper on the cut in demand forecast and the 108.30/50 level is still the level that needs to be broken for a push up. 

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