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Never Ever Follow The Villager Into Equities

It’s a moot point: Is the Buffalo leading the Villager or is the Villager Following The Buffalo? The Chinese are contemplating the same.

Nobody has seen the village chief.

Just months ago, his courtyard home at the edge of the orchard was a makeshift trading floor where local farmers gathered to share tips and track the Shanghai Composite. Now, the gates are closed, a security camera stands watch, and nobody wants to talk about the stock-trading local party secretary.

“Out for the whole day,” ventured a neighbor.

“Who?” said another.

“Maybe he flew away in a plane,” joked a third. The country was gripped by stock fever, a frenzy of borrowing and buying that saw Chinese markets soar to historic heights, drawing in tens of millions of first-time investors, including dozens of people in this northern Chinese village.

The rally was bolstered by rah-rah editorials in the state-controlled press. Invoking President Xi Jinping’s vision for a powerful and prosperous China, the People’s Daily called rising stock prices “carriers of the China dream.” When the benchmark index hit 4000 points, an editorial in the same party flagship promised it was “just the beginning” of the bull run.

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Jim Chanos Presentation On China

Short seller Jim Chanos has been bearish on China for a while now.  Here is a presentation he made making his case.  It is 57 Minutes long.



China Banks Tightening Standards for Loans To Property Sector (iMarketNews)
Shanghai equities at lowest since Oct (People’s Daily Online)
Economic fears pull US copper futures below $3/lb (Reuters India)
China curbs companies’ capital raising (FT.com)
Tightening fears give rise to China ‘buy’ opportunities (FT.com)
Chinese Tightening Unlikely to Cause Copper Collapse (WSJ.com)
Chinese mortgage rates rise as loan clampdown bites (Reuters)

There are also geopolitical issues going on about the internet, currency and arms sales.  So interesting times folks.  FYI, Chanos correctly shorted Moody’s while Buffett was buying in May 2007.

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