Archives of “central banks” tag

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21 Things a Trader Should Know About Trading

  
  Education
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1. Never try to make money the same way twice in a row.lip25

2. Don’t trade inactive markets.

3. Don’t assume that the relation between your two favorite markets will stay the same from year to year.

4. Be alert to big minimums on Monday as they tend to reverse.

5. Try not to sell markets that have big drifts upwards like stocks.

6. Try to go with with the central banks.

7. Be one with the idea that has the world in its grip and be on the side of the market that will further that grip.

8. Never go for small profits as the vig is too great relative to your gain as a %.

9. Don’t trade when a loved one is very sick. (more…)

Soros Says "Crisis Far From Over, We Have Just Entered Act 2"

  
Analysis, Economy, Education
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The bearish case has just gotten another notable supporter in the face of George Soros, who during his remarks at a conference in Vienna, said that the “we have only just entered Act II” of the global financial crisis.

Bloomberg reports:

Billionaire investor George Soros said “we have just entered Act II” of the crisis as Europe’s fiscal woes worsen.

“The collapse of the financial system as we know it is real, and the crisis is far from over,” Soros said today at a conference in Vienna. “Indeed, we have just entered Act II of the drama.”

Concern that Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis may spread sent the euro to a four-year low against the dollar on June 7 and has wiped out more than $4 trillion from global stock markets this year. Europe’s debt-ridden nations have to raise almost 2 trillion euros ($2.4 trillion) within the next three years to refinance maturing bonds and fund deficits, according to Bank of America Corp.

“When the financial markets started losing confidence in the credibility of sovereign debt, Greece and the euro have taken center stage, but the effects are liable to be felt worldwide,” Soros said.

One wonders if Soros, who made a name for himself originally in the currency markets, is involved in the current record FX volatility. Of course, with animosity toward “speculators” at unprecedented levels, it probably would not be very prudent of anyone to disclose they are now taking on Central Banks directly.

Lessons from Lehman: ‘Don’t Panic’

  
  Education
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WEEKEND-READINGWarren Buffett is not called the ‘Oracle of Omaha’ for nothing.

‘Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful’ is good investment advice looking back at the turmoil of September 2008.

The demise of Lehman Brothers five years ago marked the start of a truly fearful six months for investors. Only in March 2009 had risky asset prices fallen far enough for bargain-hunting buyers to begin picking up equities and lower-quality bonds.

On the anniversary this weekend of Lehman’s collapse, those investors who stayed the course in equities and junk bonds can afford a smile. The S&P 500 index has gained 50 per cent.

They have done well, though alternative bets made in 2008, such as buying a New York City taxicab medallion, have done even better. (more…)

Mr.Warren Buffett :Buy and Hold -Failed

  
Analysis, Economy, Education
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From the wires today:

“OMAHA, Neb. (AP) — Warren Buffett’s company reported a 40 percent drop in second-quarter profit Friday because the improvement at Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s operating companies couldn’t overcome $1.4 billion in paper losses on derivative contracts. Berkshire’s strong performances from its railroad, insurance and manufacturing businesses was overshadowed by the plummeting value of the Omaha company’s derivatives — many of which are tied to the value of four major stock markets.”

From Buffett himself in 2002:

“The derivatives genie is now well out of the bottle, and these instruments will almost certainly multiply in variety and number until some event makes their toxicity clear. Central banks and governments have so far found no effective way to control, or even monitor, the risks posed by these contracts. In my view, derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction, carrying dangers that, while now latent, are potentially lethal.”

From Bloomberg recently:

“Buffett’s well known for his criticism of derivatives. Yet Berkshire in recent years has become a big player, with some $60 billion in derivatives contracts. Under any new derivatives regulation, Berkshire would be likely to have to produce collateral for new derivatives contracts it writes. This would limit the attractiveness of new derivatives deals for Buffett, who has boasted that Berkshire rarely does a deal that calls for it to produce collateral. But that’s not why Buffett has been pushing back against the financial reform bill in the Senate. Instead, Buffett says he’s concerned that the legislation would impose collateral requirements on existing contracts — which he says would be illegal. Sen. Ben Nelson, D-Neb., made the same case this week as he defected from the Democrats backing the financial reform bill. Whatever his logic, pushing back on derivatives reform has the interesting side effect of aligning Buffett, with his sterling reputation, with the widely derided Wall Street banks.”

Buy and hold? Buying strong businesses? Derivatives are weapons of mass destruction? Bailouts of many of the components of BRKA? Does anyone have the cajones to criticize Buffett? There has to be at least one emasculated weenie out there who will come on here and tell me that I can’t criticize America’s wealthiest just because he is rich. Right?

The Buffett myth is just that — a myth. If not for the fall 2008 bailouts, he would be on the senior circuit revising history along with Greenspan. Why my stark view on this lovely sunny morning in beautiful Southern California? Cause no matter how many books populate Amazon, all preaching about how you can become the next Buffett, they are all disingenuous fairy tales.

It Would be A Mistake To Think That The Bailout Is Actually A Bailout Of Greece

  
Economy, Education
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The ECB has talked more hawkish than the Federal Reserve but basically they are all money printers. Some are better at it, and faster and have more efficient machines the others are slower but basically central banks, they run a print and print.

And it would be a mistake to think that the bailout is actually a bailout of Greece. Greece is a write-off. You can`t have the kind of debt Greece has with Olive Oil income. They have no industries to speak of. They have shipping but the shipping industy does not pay taxes in Greece.

So basically the bailout is actually a bailout of the ECB itself because they already have a lot of paper of Spain, portugal and Greece in their portfolio and a bailout of the banks in Europe. They lent money to Greece, Spain and Portugal, so they are all in the same boat.

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