Archives of “Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services” tag

rss

CNN report that Biden tells House progressives spending package needs to be between $1.9 tln and $2.2 tln

  
  Analysis
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

Via a CNN report, citing two sources

Biden in a virtual meeting with a group of House progressives on Monday
  • said the top line of the social safety net package needs to come down to somewhere between $1.9 trillion and $2.2 trillion
  • Biden told the group, according to one of the sources, that was the range he felt Sens. Joe Manchin and Kyrsten Sinema would accept but did not specify further within that range.
Climbing down from higher numbers earlier. Less fiscal boost will not be as positive for markets looking for stimulus, but on the other hand getting the thing passed will be positive.

AstraZeneca plans its vaccine test on 50,000 enrolment

  
  Analysis
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

AstraZeneca Plc has begun a large-scale human trial of its coronavirus vaccine in the US

Earlier reports said the company planned to test on 30K but the latest is it’ll be a test on over 50k. 30k in the US, 20k elsewhere around the globe.
In the US the tests are being conducted with the assistance of the University of Wisconsin School of Medicine and Public Health as one of the sites for the human trials. The plan is to begin trials with the volunteers on Tuesday, with tests to accelerate following the September 7 US Labor Day holiday.
How the tests will be conducted, in brief:
  • adults aged 18 years or over
  • from diverse racial, ethnic and geographic groups who are healthy or have stable underlying medical conditions, including those living with HIV, and who are at increased risk of infection from the SARS-CoV-2 virus
  • participants are being randomized to receive two doses of either AZD1222 or a saline control, four weeks apart
  • twice as many participants receiving the potential vaccine than the saline control
  • trial is assessing the efficacy and safety of the vaccine in all participants, and local and systemic reactions and immune responses will be assessed in 3,000 participants.
  • late-stage clinical trials are ongoing in the UK, Brazil and South Africa and trials are planned to start in Japan and Russia.
Adds the company (bolding is mine):
  • Results from the late-stage trials are anticipated later this year, depending on the rate of infection within the clinical trial communities.
  • In July 2020, interim results from the ongoing Phase I/II COV001 trial were published in The Lancet and showed AZD1222 was tolerated and generated robust immune responses against the SARS-CoV-2 virus in all evaluated participants.
AstraZeneca Plc has begun a large-scale human trial of its coronavirus vaccine in the US

Japan press – “Abenomics here to stay”

  
Analysis, Politics
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #  #

Justin had the news on Friday of the imminent retirement of Japanese Prime Minister Abe.

  • the end of an era for Japanese politics
Abe will not be taking Abenomics with him though, Japan Times:
  • economists say Japan’s next leader will likely maintain he basic Abenomics framework
  • “For sure, markets will be watching the continuity. I think many are assuming that things won’t change a lot, but the new prime minister will need to clearly explain that,” said Daiju Aoki, chief investment officer at UBS Wealth Management Japan.
Shunsuke Kobayashi, chief economist at Mizuho Securities:
  • “The government will need to continue to deal with the pandemic and do what’s necessary to contain it while limiting the economic damage … whoever becomes the prime minister, he or she will have to face the same issue and take the same necessary steps” 
ps. Much of Abenomics boiled down to massive policy easing from the BOJ. This is not gonna change any time soon.
Abe was PM from 2006 to 2007 and then again since 2012. He will step down on or around September 15.  He is the longest-serving Prime Minister in Japanese history. Get well soon, and enjoy your retirement sir!

Justin had the news on Friday of the imminent retirement of Japanese Prime Minister Abe.

US election outcome poses potential downside risks to US equities

  
  Analysis
#  #  #  #  #  #  #  #
Via HSBC, beginning with where we are at:
  • latest national opinion polls show Senator Joe Biden maintaining a healthy lead over President Trump
  • although lower than the double-digit gap reached in late June
  • Biden’s strong polling performance has coincided with a period of high US unemployment as the country grapples with the Covid-19 pandemic and a period of heightened social tensions earlier this summer
But, that could change:
  • A number of factors could materially shift either candidate’s standing in the coming weeks. 
  • Positive for Trump would be developments that lead to a faster economic recovery. This may include the potential for the pandemic to subside or further progress to be made with treatments and/or vaccines. Congress passing a new stimulus package that includes an extension to the unemployment insurance top-up will also be considered important. 
  • Other factors complicate the picture. There is uncertainty about the impact of increased mail-in voting due to the pandemic. Meanwhile, the US Electoral College system places greater importance on ‘battleground states’ to the final result, making national polls a less useful predictor. In the majority of these states, Biden is forecast to do worse than at the national level.
For markets:
  • The outcome of the election poses some potential downside risks to US equity markets. 
  • These include the possibility of a divided government and “deadlock” over fiscal policy support, while Biden may implement higher corporate taxes. 
  • For the time being, we maintain our overweight view on US equities as the “swoosh” economic recovery remains in play.”

Here’s what it’ll take for gold (and silver) to climb to new highs ($2100, $30)

  
  Analysis
#  #  #  #  #  #  #
  • Real rates are now rising along with nominal yields due to stimulus optimism and risk appetite, with the USD also off its lows. 
  • Given that the US economy will continue to positively respond to an additional trillion dollars worth of fiscal stimulus and continued Fed measures, it is quite likely that rates and the dollar may see some better days into 2020. 
  • This, along with profit-taking by the very active retail investors and COMEX margin increases should see gold consolidate lower.
  • Before … new highs ($2,100+, $30+), there will need to be confirmation that the Fed will indeed suppress yields, consider average inflation targeting and there are signs that inflation may move higher
  • At the same time, markets will want to see if monetization of debt is in the cards, before talk of these levels becoming sustained is credible. 
  • TD securities projects an average gold price of $2,100/oz in Q4-2021 and $30/oz silver price during the same period

China’s Global Times says the US is becoming the biggest uncertainty in future global economic growth

  
  Analysis
#  #  #  #  #  #

An opinion piece in the state-owned tabloid

Some of the remarks in the piece:
  • The US has rolled out a series of policies to monetize financial deficit …  which has aggravated financial risks in the country, and cast a shadow over further investments.
  • US’ failure to handle the coronavirus may even prolong the pandemic
  • skyrocketing unemployment has resulted in sliding consumption which in turn is causing a decline in exports from its trade partners
  • huge debt and expanding stock market bubbles have damaged the confidence of global investors
GT is a barometer of official thinking in China re the US, relations between the two contries are on a downward path.
Global Times editor Hi Xijin:
An opinion piece in the state-owned tabloid

Australia NAB Business Survey – ” largest shock since the 1930s”

  
  Analysis
#  #  #  #

Main points from NAB’s assessment of the survey:

  • shows a significant deterioration in both current conditions as well as expected outcomes for activity, capex and employment going forward
  • Current conditions lowest read since the early 1990s
  • weakening was driven by sharp declines across all three sub-indexes and was broad-based across industries
  • decline in confidence was more muted, likely reflecting survey timing, with activity starting to recover with the removal of restrictions and easing in lockdowns
  • The impact of shutdowns is evident in the record decline in capacity utilisation which was also at its weakest level since the last recession. Unsurprisingly given the massive hit to conditions and capacity utilisation, expectations for capex and employment have declined very sharply at both the 3- and 12-month horizons
  • While we know that conditions and confidence saw a rebound late in the quarter, the level of activity remains weak and confidence may remain fragile. These factors pose a risk to a rebound in hiring and investment intentions going forward and warrant close watching. These risks also warrant ongoing government support for a period while the economy recovers from the largest shock since the 1930s.
Bolding mine.
Go to top