Archives of “Canadian Broadcasting Corporation” tag

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China repeats that it firmly opposes US’ suppression of Huawei

  
  Analysis
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Comments by the Chinese foreign ministry

Huawei

This comes after the US moved to cut off Huawei’s supply chain via fresh sanctions that will restrict any foreign semiconductor company from selling chips – developed or produced using US software/technology – to the Chinese company.

The remarks from China today are rather reserved – no specific mention of retaliation but there is anxiety surrounding the situation – but fitting with the tone that both sides are still largely holding off from escalating tensions too much for the time being.

Bank of Japan refuses trader requests to work from home

  
  Analysis
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Bloomberg had this piece up earlier (link for more), citing ‘people familiar:

  • The BOJ doesn’t allow home computers to connect to its network for conducting asset purchases and other market transactions
  • Three firms (at least) have asked the BOJ whether traders can participate in its operations from outside the office
  • BOJ-Net infrastructure is used for yen transactions daily, connected via dedicated cables to computers at dozens of financial firms so they can trade assets with the central bank or buy bonds from the government
  • BOJ is concerned about cybersecurity risk.
The hot new toy for summer probably won’t be keenly sought after amongst BOJ counterparties:
Bloomberg had this piece up earlier (link for more), citing 'people familiar:

‘Game changer’ COVID-19 test approved by the US FDA over the weekend

  
  Analysis
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The US FDA authorised the emergency use of a new saliva based laboratory diagnostic test for coronavirus.

 A key difference is the speed of the test, its being described as a ‘game changer’.
The sped allows more people to access rapid easily.
Stephen Hahn, the Food and Drugs Administration Commissioner:
  • “Providing this type of flexibility for processing saliva samples to test for COVID-19 infection is groundbreaking in terms of efficiency and avoiding shortages of crucial test components like reagents”
Its called SalivaDirect
  • has been tested amongst US National Basketball Association (NBA) players and staff
  • simpler, less expensive, less invasive than nasopharyngeal (NP) swabbing
  • yields similar outcomes as NP swabbing
Current testing:
The US FDA authorised the emergency use of a new saliva based laboratory diagnostic test for coronavirus.
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ps. For clarity, this is a test for the infection, not a treatment. That is clear above, but wanted to restate it.

Warren Buffett makes a big bet on gold

  
  Analysis
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Buffett bought a stake in miner Barrick Gold

Barrick Gold Warren Buffett
Warren Buffett has famously disparaged gold but evidently he’s had a change of heart.
According to a Q2 13F filed today, The Oracle of Omaha added 20.9 million shares of Barrick Gold, which is the world’s second largest gold miner. He paid $563.5 million for the stake, which equates to $26.95 per share and his Berkshire Hathaway owns 1.2% of the company. It was the only new company he bought in the second quarter.
The shares closed at $26.99 on Friday but jumped about $1.00 in after hours trading.
Warren Buffett
This could indicate a massive change of heart from the world’s most famous investor, or one of his deputies.
His most-famous musing on gold was from back in 1998:
“(Gold) gets dug out of the ground in Africa, or someplace. Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head.”
As recently as 2018 he repeated his misgivings about gold.
“The magical metal was no match for the American mettle,” he wrote in his annual letter while comparing the returns of both since he first invested in stocks in 1944.
Now this doesn’t necessarily mean he has a new view on gold. Barrick’s cash flows with gold steady at these levels are compelling (and other miners are even more compelling).  Still, expect much more interest in the space now that Warren Buffett has given it his blessing.
Other highlights from his Q2 13F:
  • Exited Occidental Petroleum, but added to Suncor Energy
  • Cut JPMorgan stake by 62%
  • Cut Mastercard stake by 7%
  • Aside from SU, only added to STOR and KR
  • Reduced WFC, SIRI, PNC, MTB, BK
  • Exited DAL, LUV, UAL, AAL, QSR, GS, OXY
In terms of the ones he reduced. In general Buffett doesn’t sell shares unless he plans to sell out. However at times he has to sell to stay below ownership limits.
Overall, his investment mix doesn’t exactly show confidence in the economic or stock market recovery.

Dollar reverses its course

  
  Analysis
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Seeing some dollar buying all of the sudden

The dollar has reversed back higher in the last 30 minutes of trading.
Seeing some dollar buying all of the sudden
The EURUSD is back down testing the trend line on the 5 minute chart. The 100 bar MA on the same chart has been broken, but the trend line continues to hold the support.
GBPUSD
The GBPUSD has moved down to test its 100 bar MA on the 5 minute at 1.30904 but is finding some support as well. It will take a move below to swing more of the bias back to the downside.

US weekly initial jobless claims 963K vs 1100K expected

  
  Analysis
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Claims fall below 1 million

weekly initial jobless claims
  • Prior was 1186K (revised to 1191K)
  • Continuing claims 15486K vs 15800K expected
  • Prior continuing claims 16090K
  • PUA claims 489K vs 656K prior
  • Full report
The total number of people claiming benefits for all programs was 28,257,995, down 3065K from the prior week.
This was the first time initial jobless claims were below 1 million in 21 weeks.

India reports record daily new coronavirus cases of 66,999 in latest update today

  
  Analysis
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That brings the total confirmed cases in the country to nearly 2.4 million

India is among the countries that have been hit the hardest by the pandemic as the struggle to balance between the health crisis and the economic fallout is particularly stark.

As for the health crisis, the bright side is that over 1.6 million of those infected has recovered from the disease. However, the spread is still outpacing the number of recoveries:
India
At the start of July, India reported ~220,000 active cases in the country. That figure is now ~643,000. The only positive – if you really want to look at it that way – is that the mortality sits at just ~1.9%. That is better than the ~3.2% seen in Brazil and the US.
In the bigger picture, as long as the health crisis worsens in India, it will have an impact on the global economic situation in general. Before the pandemic, there have been talks that India’s share of global growth might rival that of US, China in the next decade.
They were already among the top five – some would argue top three – contributors of global growth over the past few years, so any major setback to India will also be a setback for the global economy in that sense.

OPEC lowers global oil demand forecast

  
Analysis, Crude
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The latest forecasts in OPEC’s monthly report

The latest forecasts in OPEC's monthly report
OPEC now sees 2020 world oil demand down by 9.06 mbpd compared to a drop of 8.95 mbpd in the previous monthly report.
They say the second-half outlook points to the need for continued efforts to support a rebalancing in the market through OPEC+ adjustments.
With that, they cut their forecast for OPEC crude by 400K bpd this year and 500K bpd in 2021. Part of that is due to higher non-OPEC supply.
Crude is unmoved by the news and up 59-cents to $42.20/barrel on the day.
The main worry for oil is that OPEC starts to ramp up production again. Non-OPEC producers are filling in gaps from the huge cuts and that’s not going to fly forever.

China reaffirms that US’ TikTok ban has nothing to do with national security

  
  Analysis
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Comments by the Chinese foreign ministry

US China
  • Beijing has been ‘consistent’ on trade deal
  • Declines to comment on further trade specifics
  • Says position on US sanctions is clear and consistent
  • Says US sanctions are irrational, groundless
  • Reiterates opposition towards ties between US and Taiwan
There’s nothing really new here as this has been China’s stance all along but it does reaffirm expectations that both sides have a lot more than just the Phase One trade deal to discuss if they were to meet later this week.

Russia president Putin says have approved first Russian-produced coronavirus vaccine

  
  Analysis
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Putin says that his daughter has been vaccinated from the coronavirus

Putin
  • Says that Russian health ministry has approved coronavirus vaccine developed by Moscow’s Gamaleya Institute
  • Says hopes Russia will start mass production of coronavirus vaccine
Take what you will and believe what you want from the headlines above, but this may lay the groundwork for other countries to start prepping their own “breakthroughs” sooner rather than later. As with everything related to the pandemic thus far, all it takes is for one country to set a precedent and the others will take that as an opportunity to follow.
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