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Trump warns he will obliterate Turkey if they go offside

  
  Analysis
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Trump talks about his “great and unmatched wisdom”

Another tweet on Turkey:
As I have stated strongly before, and just to reiterate, if Turkey does anything that I, in my great and unmatched wisdom, consider to be off limits, I will totally destroy and obliterate the Economy of Turkey (I’ve done before!). They must, with Europe and others, watch over…the captured ISIS fighters and families. The U.S. has done far more than anyone could have ever expected, including the capture of 100% of the ISIS Caliphate. It is time now for others in the region, some of great wealth, to protect their own territory. THE USA IS GREAT!
The Turkish lira is under pressure today on speculation they will launch offensives into Turkey.

Trump: If China doesn’t do what US wants, US has lots of options

  
  Analysis
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Trump on China trade talks

  • Chinese delegation coming next week for trade talks
  • Says he would like Ukraine to investigate the Bidens
  • North Korea wants to talk and US will be talking

The China comments are tame, he isn’t promising anything. That’s a bit worrisome.

Trump blames the stock market decline on ‘impeachment nonsense’

  
Analysis, US Market
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Trump turns his eye away from the Fed

He’s not entirely wrong, the market didn’t like the impeachment headlines when they first hit. But I’d argue that’s because impeachment is more likely to make him erratic and reactionary, if not dangerous.
As for what’s caused the latest leg of US stock market selling, allow me to draw some conclusions:
Trump turns his eye away from the Fed
Here’s his tweet:
All of this impeachment nonsense, which is going nowhere, is driving the Stock Market, and your 401K’s, down. But that is exactly what the Democrats want to do. They are willing to hurt the Country, with only the 2020 Election in mind!
However I think in the big picture, you’re going to have a US election in 13 months. How do you have any confidence in stocks on a Warren vs Trump election? That’s a binary outcome.
If the impeachment talk had any bearing, it was because it hurt Biden as much as Trump and that solidified Warren’s lead. She went from +200K in betting odds on Sept 12 to +110 now.

Trump: Hopes for allowing China into WTO have failed

  
  Analysis
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Trump on China at the UN

Trump on China at the UN
  • China hasn’t adopted promised reforms
  • China uses heavy state subsidies, steals IP
  • Cites company stealing Micron’s products in China
  • WTO needs drastic change
  • World’s second-largest economy shouldn’t be allowed to call itself a developing country
  • The days of globalism are over
  • Says he’s placed tariffs on over $500B of Chinese goods
  • Hopefully we can find a deal that’s good for both countries, but I will not accept a bad deal
  • Says carefully watching situation in Hong Kong
  • Expects China to honor treaty on Hong Kong

If you’re China and listening to that, do you really think Trump wants to make a long-term deal?

Watch Warren Buffett’s first ever television interview

  
Analysis, Video
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Warren Buffett feels like he’s been around forever but he was far from a household name until the late 1990s.
His first television interview didn’t take place until 1985, when he was 55-years old. What’s incredible is that he was saying then is consistent to everything he’s said in the 34 years since.
It underscores that trading isn’t about information, it’s about process. It’s his same ‘circle of competence game’ that doesn’t include chasing what’s hot.
“I don’t have to win at every game,” he said. “There are no called strikes in this game, they just keep pitching, you don’t have to swing at any of them.”
Another interesting point for the long-term investor is that he was cautious of excess noise, something that the internet has brought everywhere.
Given all the changes in the world since this interview — and the remarkable outperformance of tech — it’s truly amazing (and telling) that he’s had so much success.

Pres. Trump: China agricultural purchases is not enough

  
  Analysis
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President Trump speaking at a press conference with Australia’s prime minister

  • China agricultural purchases is not enough
  • looking for complete deal with China
  • he does not need a trade yield before the 2020 election
  • China is being affected very badly US economy is very strong
  • China is eating the tariffs
  • Trump has an amazing relationship with Xi, but is having a little spat
  • signing USMCA is very important for the country
  • Australia will be a big beneficiary of China deal
  • expects sanctions to work on Iran
  • military option would work but should never have to use it
  • Iran has a lot of self-made problems

Trump ready to escalate trade war if no deal, advisor says

  
  Analysis
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SCMP report

Trump has so far only imposed ‘low level tariffs’ and is prepared to escalate them further if no deal is agreed, Michael Pillsburt told the SCMP.
This is an interesting tidbit as well:
“It was very close and then something mysterious happened. China reneged,” Pillsbury said. “The mystery is the hardliners [in Beijing]. They apparently were not aware of the 150-page deal. They somehow became aware of it in April. Some new players got involved in Beijing and next thing we know their reneging took place.”
The location of the comments is also telling; the US is sending a message to China.

Trump: It is looking like Iran was responsible for attacks on Saudi Arabia

  
Analysis, Politics
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Trump comments to reporters:

  • Says he doesn’t want war with anyone but the US is prepared
  • US has a lot of options but he’s not looking at options yet; the US wants to find out who was responsible
This is going to grab headlines and might boost oil but I’m a bit less enthusiastic. Trump has a fairly strong anti-war bent that’s been one of the few consistent themes in his Presidency. There is certainly some reluctance here from him.

US media says Iran launched nearly a dozen cruise missiles and over 20 drones in attack on Saudi

  
Analysis, Politics
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ABC news citing an unnamed Trump administration official

  • Iran launched nearly a dozen cruise missiles 
  • over 20 drones from its territory
  • a senior Trump administration official told ABC News Sunday.
officially:
  • so far, there’s been no public accusation that Iran launched missiles
Adds ABC:
  • But a senior U.S. official told ABC News Saturday that was false: “It was Iran. The Houthis are claiming credit for something they did not do.”
  • Pompeo tweeted that there was “no evidence the attacks came from Yemen.”
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ABC news citing an unnamed Trump administration official

Trump will meet with advisors today on cutting capital gains

  
  Analysis
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Trump to meet economic team today

Dow Jones reports that Trump will once again meet with advisors today on the topic of cutting capital gains taxes by indexing them to inflation. The move would be a massive boon to long-term investors but punch a huge hole in the deficit over time. It would also face court challenges from Congress.
The meeting will also focus on broader proposals to cut taxes, according to the report which cities unnamed sources.
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