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UK car output rises for the first time in 15 months in August

  
  Analysis
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A piece of good news for this sector of the UK economy!

Reuters (Link) with the report, in brief:
  • car production increased by an annual 3.3% in August
  • first rise in 15 months
And, now for the extra bits, maybe not quite so good:
  • helped by several factories having moved their summertime shutdowns to April in preparation for the original Brexit date
  • BMW, Peugeot, Honda and Jaguar Land Rover all closed factories ranging from a few days to four weeks in April over concerns that Britain’s scheduled departure from the European Union in March could lead to disruption, including delays to the arrival of parts
“Today’s figures mask the underlying downward trend and strengthening global headwinds facing the sector, including international trade tensions, massive technological upheaval and, in the UK, political and economic uncertainty,” said SMMT Chief Executive Mike Hawes.
 
“We now need parliament and government to redouble efforts to get a deal that maintains free and frictionless trade.”
Yeah, about that ….
A piece of good news for this sector of the UK economy!

Gerald Loeb’s Timeless Wisdom (1899-1974)

  
  Education
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I’m sure you’ve heard the expression, “the more things change, the more they stay the same.”  Gerald Loeb used this phrase frequently.  I’ve always had great respect for Mr. Loeb.  True, he was an extraordinary investor and a best-selling author.  But what I most respected him for was his business acumen.  As one of the founding partners of E.F. Hutton, he was often quoted preaching to investors about the need to approach investing as a business and with a business mind.

Early on, I took his advice to heart.  From the very beginning, I always made certain that I organized my investing activities in a manner that yielded timely investment reports and minimized taxes.  I also sought out the best professional accounting, legal, tax and estate planning advice because this is what Gerald Loeb advocated. 

Personally, his advice has been validated over the decades.  Having known a large number of traders, I’ve observed that the most profitable ones have seldom been the smartest or boldest.  They are usually organized individuals who are willing to focus on the small details.  They are those people who are comfortable with routines and have the discipline to follow them.  I’ve often noticed that they’re unpretentious as well – even humble at times.  (more…)

5 Points for Traders

  
  Education
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  • Concentrate on what is important. The most important thing when I am trading is profit and education, to some extent.  You can get to profit many ways but your actions need to all bend towards that one objective.  Me talking about my position takes me away from analyzing the position.  Also, for me, it makes me less flexible. Now I am thinking about what the market is doing and how I look to other people.  Also, if you are going to talk your book the most effective way is to get out into it, albeit the most unethical.
  • Start with a logical thesis. For example, leave out the fact that you said the following about the company “offers a useful, attractively priced service to customers, is growing like wildfire, is very well managed, and has a strong balance sheet,” but still decided to short the company anyways.  I realize this statement does not always mean a stock price is going to rise but the next logical step does not mean the stock is going down.
  • Follow your plan. Do not make reference to your strategy as the following “outright frauds (our very favorite), industries in decline or facing major headwinds, weak or faddish business models, bad balance sheets, and incompetent,excessively promotional and/or crooked management”  and not follow it.  See above statement.
  • Do your research before you make a trade. Don’t use anything with the word “monkey” in it for research purposes and tell someone about it.  Also, 500 people is not a very big sample size.
  • And finally, don’t act like a loss is the end of the world or a win. If you are doing the right things, your best and worst days are always ahead of you. After the trade is over the next trade is the most important, once again assuming you are doing the right things.

Nothing is ever going to prevent you from losing but there are several things that can prevent you from winning over a long period of time.

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