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Jim Rogers :I guarantee by 2012 next recession

  
Analysis, Education, Video
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Last night in London, Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings, was interviewed by CNBC after US Fed announced its decision of leaving the rates alone.

Rogers is very critical to the Fed whose solution to the crisis has been “printing money”, a strategy that he does not see sustainable, “there will be no trees left” if the Fed keep on printing money. Rogers’s contempt to the US Fed is obvious, to a point that he stated that he isn’t paying attention to them at all. He thinks investors are better served to read and think and come up with their our opinions. “Sometimes I got it wrong, sometimes Igot it right” he said.

Commenting on the US Housing market, Rogers thinks that the market will stay low for many years to come to work out the inventories.

I found his answer to the recession question evasive at the best, for the CNBC anchor was looking for a “Yes” or “No” for an imminent double-dip recession. “We’re going to have another recession, I guarantee you… By 2012 say, it’s time for another recession.” – anybody could have said that, for recession comes and goes.

But, “The next time it’s going to be worse because we’ve shot all of our bullets,” he warned us. Rogers has been advocating investing in commodities.

Mark Douglas makes some great statements

  
  Education
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In the book Trading In The Zone, Mark Douglas makes some great statements that I truly believe are important.  He states:

I AM A CONSISTENT WINNER BECAUSE:

  • I objectively identify my edges
  • I predefine the risk of every trade
  • I completely ACCEPT the risk or I am willing to let go of the trade
  • I act on my edges without reservation or hesitation
  • I pay myself as the market makes money available to me
  • I continually monitor my susceptibility for making errors
  • I understand the absolute necessity of these principles of consistent success and, therefor, I always follow them with confidence and joy.

What you’ll notice about his statements is that it is he is assuming that you have already done the first set of bullets up top; that you have already created a plan and you already have a set of RULES.  Now you might ask, how do I know if my set of rules now will work next month or next year? GREAT question. The market dates back all the way into the late 1700’s.  There is literally a few HUNDRED years of data.  That’s why I say that back testing is KEY.  Now that doesn’t mean that you need to back-test 200 years of data.  Not even close.  You want to back-test a reasonable time depending on your time-frame of trading.  For example, if I plan on trading based on a daily system, then I might back-test the last 5-6 years.  If I’m going to trade based on an intra-day 3 minute chart, I would probably backtest about a year.  There is no way to KNOW what is going to happen, but trading really boils down to probabilities.  Time and time again the same things tend to repeat themselves.  Why do you think the markets tend do to the same things over and over.  Why does it seem that certain stocks that are in the same class look the same from a chart perspective?  How come a company will report great quarterly results, but still go down? It’s because there is a greater number of traders that BELIEVE that this is where an equity is too much or too little.  Why do you think there are people who are talking about a “recession” right now?  Again, it’s because the same things seem to be occurring that did prior to a previous recession and people have that BELIEF.

So what does all this mean?  What can you gather from all this?  Well, a few things actually.  One is to make sure you create, find and organize a PLAN for trading.  Think about it as if you wanted to open up a company.  Do the research and find out how some of these traders got started and what they did.  Once you’ve done that, write down your plan and look at your questions from up top.  Once you can answer ALL of them, then you are moving toward being a consistently profitable trader.  Then take a look at what Mark Douglas wrote.  You have to own these statements mentally.  You have to truly believe that you are a consistent winner because of all of the statements above.

Remember, you are starting a business, and if you want your business to succeed, you need to have a PLAN!

“Plan your trade, and trade your plan” – Anonymous

Trading, Gambling, Praying

  
Analysis, Education
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Intuition is not free

If you are thinking about exiting, it is too late. You are praying at that point. If it is in your plan for your targets to get hit, up or down, continue what you are doing. If you are just hoping your stop does not get hit, on behalf of the market, thank you. I am making the assumption that those who post or say that their stop is going to get hit have discretion in their system. The problem is not this trade it is the hundreds or thousands you will take after that. There is a reason you wanted to get it, that is intuition. If you cannot afford to not make money on a trade, you are fucked anyways.

You lost the lesson too

The market is constantly giving feedback. What happens after the “my stop is going to get hit” statement? What if the market goes in your direction? Are you going to get out at breakeven? Let it run? Take a small lost/gain? What are you going to do next time? The time after that? The outcome will affect your decision. The outcome you remember best will be the one that gives you the best psychological reward not financial rewards. Trading is about answers, not questions. Unanswered question impedes reactions and forces decisions. Decisions are bad over the long term.

Get out already (more…)

SNIPER LESSONS

  
  Education
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One of the trader’s biggest psychological barriers to overcome is over trading. Of course, over trading is relative depending on the type of trader you are and the time frame(s) used to make trading decisions. However, if you have a well formulated trading plan, you will know from past experience when you are walking the line between planned trading and over trading.

Here are some of the symptoms of over trading:

1. not sticking to a plan or system

2. taking trades for no clear reason

3. taking on larger than normal positions

4. second guessing your system

5. jumping the gun (entering a trade in anticipation of an affirmative signal/pattern)

6. obligatory trading (if I am not in a trade, then I am not working)

The underlying cause of over trading is purely a lack of confidence either in yourself and/or your system. If you truly believe that your trading strategy provides X number of high probability set-ups over X number of days, then why would you waste your energy (and capital) taking high risk, low probability trades? The answer: lack of confidence. The solution: think and train like a sniper.

According to the dictionary a sniper is a skilled military shooter detailed to spot and pick off enemy soldiers from a concealed place using long-range small arms. The word originates from the snipe, a game bird difficult for hunters to sneak up on. (more…)

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